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8 direct mentions across 8 briefings, with 12 linked developments.
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Secretary of State Rubio will meet counterparts from Australia, India and Japan, with countering China’s geopolitical and economic influence among their principal concerns.
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Secretary of State Rubio will meet counterparts from Australia, India and Japan, with countering China’s geopolitical and economic influence among their principal concerns.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
India dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kashmir
India said its forces killed three people involved in the April Kashmir attack that preceded a brief confrontation with Pakistan. Domestic criticism over the time taken to identify and pursue the attackers.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 26 May 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Yesterday, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen soldiers (as opposed to Veterans' Day, which celebrates all who have served). •Tomorrow is Eid al Adha, which marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Despite the war and Iran's strikes on regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, around 1.7 million Muslims took part in this year's pilgrimage. •U.S. SecState Rubio will meet with his counterparts from the other three Quad countries - Australia, India, and Japan - for talks in Delhi today. One of their chief concerns will be finding ways to counter China's growing geopolitical and economic heft. •Paris Saint-Germain plays Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. •Colombia votes for president on Sunday. Far-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,650/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,092/ton •Bitcoin: $77,169 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,668/ton •Ethereum: $2,120 •Gold: $4,511/toz •Lead: $2,012/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $92.46/barrel •Zinc: $3,543/ton IRAN •The U.S. struck several missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what CENTCOM called an act of self-defense "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." •Despite the fresh U.S. strikes, the temporary ceasefire is still largely holding up as negotiators continue to make slow progress towards a permanent peace deal during mediated talks in Doha. •Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that a "framework" for a truce had been agreed, but it's unlikely to lead to a conclusive, war-ending agreement. As The Economist quipped: "At best...it will be a deal to keep talking about a final deal." ISRAEL •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump demanded that several more Middle Eastern countries - namely, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar - sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of a future deal to end the Iran war. •Critics complained that Trump's new demand adds further complexity to deliberations that are already dauntingly complicated. Plus, several of the countries in question have steadfastly refused to cave to past U.S. pressure to join the pact and are unlikely to suddenly reconsider now. Pakistan and Saudi, in particular, have long maintained that they would only consider joining the Accords and normalizing relations with Israel after Palestine has a clear path to statehood. LEBANON •Three senior Iranian officials told the NYT that the latest Iran ceasefire proposal would also end Israel's war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. •However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a very different tone in a video statement announcing an escalation in Israel's war against Hezbollah: "We are not removing our foot from the pedal. On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more." SUDAN •Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. •It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. •The UAE denied the latest accusations - just as it has denied backing the RSF in the first place. GUINEA •Guinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. •The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May UKRAINE •Pres. Putin stood Pres. Zelensky up for today's peace talks in Turkey - which Putin himself had proposed on Sunday in an effort to avoid new sanctions EU leaders had threatened to nudge him towards talks. Zelensky grumbled that Putin's absence indicates "that he does not want to end the war." •It's not clear whether Ukrainian and Russian officials will still meet today. If they do, the Russian delegation will probably be led by hardline Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky rather than Putin himself, which means the summit is unlikely to result in a serious truce. •France is leading an EU effort to slap Putin with a 17th round of sanctions for blowing off peace talks. The new measures would target Russian "shadow" tankers and cyberattackers. SYRIA •On Tuesday, Pres. Trump unexpectedly announced an end to all U.S. sanctions on Syria "in order to give [Syria] a chance at greatness." •U.S. sanctions have hobbled Syria - they were a leading factor in the 90% decline in Syrian exports from 2011 to 2021 - and Syria's new government has successfully argued that it needs sanctions relief to help rebuild the country after 14 years of civil war. •Following his announcement lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump then met with Syria's interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. •Trump encouraged Al Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, and said Al Sharaa agreed to join the Abraham Accords - the 2020 deal in which Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel - at an unspecified future time "when it's straightened out." •Before meeting with Al Sharaa, Pres. Trump addressed an investment conference in Riyadh yesterday with a well-received speech criticizing decades of U.S. nation-building and intervention in other countries and declaring that the U.S. will no longer be "giving you lectures on how to live." •Critics of U.S. intervention cheered the notion of a more hands-off approach, while activists in some countries expressed concern that human rights protections would erode without U.S. pressure behind them. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •The NYT published an excellent satellite analysis of the reciprocal strikes India and Pakistan took at each other during their four-day clash last week. •While both sides "claimed to inflict severe damage" on the other while sustaining minimal damage from the other's strikes, satellite photos suggest that both fought with restraint and precisely targeted military facilities and equipment - especially airplanes and airfields - while taking care to minimize human casualties. India reported losing five soldiers and Pakistan said it lost 11. GAZA •Israel's military likely killed several senior Hamas leaders - including Muhammad Sinwar (Yahya's younger brother), spokesman Abu Obaida, and Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana - in a strike on the European Hospital in Khan Younis. •A Gazan political scientist told the NYT that Sinwar's "death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas...But I’m not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it might even backfire, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar." SAHEL •Mali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians who objected to last month's decision to give coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term. RUSSIA •A Russian court sentenced Grigory Melkonyants - the head of the country's only independent election monitor, Golos - to five years in a penal colony for working with an "undesirable organization:" the Montenegro-based European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations (ENEMO). •Melkonyants insists that Golos has not interacted with ENEMO since the Kremlin branded ENEMO "undesirable" in 2021. It seems that Golos's true offense was documenting widespread fraud in Russian elections.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash April 30 Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel may resume in Cairo shortly - if Hamas agrees to send negotiators. •Israeli officials confirmed that they've made concessions in the interest of closing a ceasefire deal: they're now open to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 to 33 hostages - down from the previous demand of 40 hostages. •Hamas had trouble locating 40 hostages fitting the previous offer's criteria for release (elderly, ill, or female) but should have an easier time finding 20 to 33 hostages to free. And it's in Hamas's interest to close a deal before Israeli ground troops enter Rafah, so we may see some progress towards a deal this week. •It sounds like the biggest negotiating gap now is how long a ceasefire would last: Hamas prefers a longer one that lets it stay in power, while Israel wants a shorter-term deal so it can secure the release of hostages but eventually return to routing Hamas's leadership. •Separately, the International Court of Justice will issue a provisional ruling today in Nicaragua's flimsy case against Germany for aiding genocide in Gaza by sending weapons to Israel. A finding against Germany could make other countries think twice before sending weapons to Israel. Middle East •The EU's top diplomat said that several EU nations - including Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta - plan to recognize Palestinian statehood within the next month. Israel criticized the idea and said it offered Palestinian leaders a "prize for terrorism." •Separately, the NYT printed an excellent piece on the delicate tightrope Arab leaders in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. are walking between sympathizing with fellow Muslims in Gaza and suppressing public demonstrations supporting Gaza, which could churn up anger against their strict regimes. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government. •The fight for El Fasher would be a bloody one, with echoes of the genocide that began there around 20 years ago and killed up to 300,000 people. Iraq •A motorcycle assassin shot dead one of Iraq's most famous TikTok personalities - a woman stage-named Um Fahad - on Friday. •It's not clear who ordered Um Fahad's killing or why she was targeted, but her flamboyant posts made her conservative enemies - as well as 460,000 followers. •She was the third young Iraqi social media personality killed in the past year. Iran •The BBC published a leaked document from Iran's security forces indicating that its guards were responsible for the 2022 death of 16-year-old protester Nika Shakarami - and that they sexually assaulted her before killing her and dumping her body to be found nine days later. The government initially claimed she died by suicide. •The BBC investigated carefully (its article states: "There are numerous fake Iranian official documents in circulation, so the BBC spent months checking every detail with multiple sources"), and these new revelations seem legit. Afghanistan •A gunman attacked a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan, killing six civilians. No group has claimed the attack yet, but Islamic State is known to target Shias in the region. Other News •The Washington Post published the clearest evidence yet linking India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), to the attempted assassination of a vocal critic of PM Modi on U.S. soil in 2023, and even identified the RAW official leading the operation by name. •India rejected the report, calling its claims "unwarranted, unsubstantiated imputations."
Open source report