Off Leash Intel · loading
One consolidated view of the Latin America and the Caribbean theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
Washington removed sanctions from Venezuela’s new president, Delcy Rodriguez; she was cooperating with U.S. priorities involving Venezuelan oil and mining investment.
Unverified development · updated through
Washington removed sanctions from Venezuela’s new president, Delcy Rodriguez; she was cooperating with U.S. priorities involving Venezuelan oil and mining investment.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
Latin America and the Caribbean theater
24 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Caracas and other unspecified locations
The opposition called mass demonstrations for 11 a.m. Caracas time on August 28, one month after the election, to demand recognition of its claimed victory. Authorities detained thousands of people, including for questioning the results online.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime.
Washington removed sanctions from Venezuela’s new president, Delcy Rodriguez; she was cooperating with U.S. priorities involving Venezuelan oil and mining investment.
Open source reportPres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela.
Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike roughly a week earlier destroyed a Venezuelan dock used by Tren de Aragua to export drugs. The incident is potentially the first known land strike in Venezuela; the Maduro government addressed it only obliquely.
Open source reportthe blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration.
Tighter restrictions on oil exports would aggravate Venezuela’s inflation and trigger additional outbound migration, while having little lasting effect on global oil prices because of ample supply and limited expected Chinese sanctions enforcement.
Open source reportThe U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters.
The United States is monitoring about 18 fully loaded sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters and plans to seize vessels that enter international waters.
Open source reportthe emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade.
The focus on sanctioned tankers indicates an intensification of existing U.S. naval enforcement against regime-linked vessels rather than restrictions on all Venezuelan maritime trade. Chevron’s legal exports and other lawful shipments would remain unaffected.
Open source reportPres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela."
President Trump designated Nicolás Maduro’s government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela.
Open source reportPres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela
Trump told reporters that Maduro wanted to talk and that he had “sort of made up my mind” about a possible land strike, without disclosing his decision or clarifying the prospects for talks.
Open source reportIt could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes
The designation could support enforcement against cartel members and business partners and potentially strengthen the case for direct strikes against Maduro and his associates.
Open source reportThe U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24.
The United States will designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization effective November 24. The Trump administration accuses Nicolás Maduro of leading the organization.
Open source reportgiven recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm
The bomber flight as a potential preview of further U.S. action rather than a false alarm.
Open source reportTwo supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday... The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration"
Two U.S. B-1 bombers flew near Venezuela on Oct. 23 while remaining in international airspace. Trump rejected an initial characterization of the sortie as an “attack demonstration.”
Open source reportmany read Trump's latest statement as the strongest suggestion yet that his anti-cartel campaign could - as Maduro fears - be used to target the Venezuelan regime
Some analysts interpret Trump’s statements as a signal that the expanded U.S. anti-cartel campaign could eventually be directed against Venezuela’s government.
Open source reportThe U.S. carried out what the Pentagon called a "precision strike against a drug vessel operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization," killing 11 aboard
The United States conducted a precision strike against an drug vessel, killing 11 people. Trump identified those aboard as Tren de Aragua members and repeated his claim linking the cartel to President Nicolás Maduro.
Open source reportNew sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body.
Canada imposed sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, including the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor and a member of the electoral body, over their role in the disputed election.
Open source reportearly indications suggest the explosion happened because of poor maintenance and outdated equipment rather than sabotage.
Poor maintenance and outdated equipment, rather than sabotage, were the likely cause of the explosion.
Open source reportA gas pipeline exploded at the Muscar Operations Center in Venezuela's Eastern Monagas state yesterday, injuring at least five.
A gas pipeline exploded on November 11, injuring at least five people and causing PDVSA to shut down supply from a facility described as providing 63% of Venezuela’s fuel. The duration of the constraint was unclear.
Open source reportBolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy.
Former president Evo Morales accused President Luis Arce of orchestrating an attempt on his life, while a deputy security minister said police were examining whether Morales staged the incident. Their party-leadership conflict will likely worsen before the next election.
Open source reportthe U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown.
The U.S. Department of Justice charged Globovision owner Raul Gorrin Belisario with laundering $1.2 billion in corrupt oil proceeds and that his whereabouts were unknown.
Open source reportAppeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.
Personnel across Venezuela’s armed forces quietly support the opposition; Machado’s appeal may help shift military allegiance.
Open source reportOpposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic."
Opposition leader María Corina Machado issued an audio appeal urging members of Venezuela’s armed forces to stop supporting the government and help form a new republic.
Open source reportVenezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents
Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek Saab accused Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Chilean President Gabriel Boric of being CIA agents amid international challenges to Nicolás Maduro’s claimed reelection.
Open source reportHe shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles.
Maduro reshuffled about half his ministers and expanded roles for Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV leader Diosdado Cabello. The changes reward loyalists rather than meaningfully changing policy.
Open source reportPres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro.
President Nicolás Maduro continued to claim victory without publishing proof, while the opposition posted tallies that show Edmundo Gonzalez receiving more than twice Maduro’s vote total.
Open source reportVenezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago.
The opposition called mass demonstrations for 11 a.m. Caracas time on August 28, one month after the election, to demand recognition of its claimed victory. Authorities detained thousands of people, including for questioning the results online.
Open source report