Hormuz shipping corridor, UAE-Iran trade rupture and political pressure in Ukraine

Off Leash update 20 August 2026

STRAIT OF HORMUZ •Axios reported that the U.S. has stealthily set up a shipping corridor on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz that has seen 15-20 tankers per day enter or exit the Persian Gulf over the past few weeks. •Those transits were not included in Kpler's recent shipping data, which showed traffic through the Strait at a three-month low last week. •The U.S.-backed transits take place at night, under the cover of darkness - and the additional cover of U.S. Air Force fighter jets ready to intercept missiles or drones Iran lobs in the general direction of the tankers. •[Thanks to U.S. strikes on Iran's radar and maritime surveillance systems, Iran has lost most of its visibility into the southern side of the Strait and is increasingly firing in the general direction of where small IRGC spotter boats observe tankers.]

IRAN •The UAE announced it would end all trade with Iran on Tuesday, after accusing Iran of firing missiles into its territory. [Iran denies targeting the UAE, and claims the offending strikes were part of a false flag operation that the U.S. and / or Israel staged to provoke the UAE to impose punitive measures - like this embargo - on Iran.] •The blockade could prove devastating for Iran. The UAE is Iran's largest source of imports, supplying around $19.1 billion of non-oil goods - such as gold, electronics, and consumer goods - annually. Iran sends around $6.6 billion of exports - including food and spices - in the other direction. Dubai's role as a global financial hub with comparatively light regulation means it's also a key part of Iran's off-the-books trade and sanctions evasion. •If the UAE cracks down on illicit dealings and vigorously enforces its blockade, it could help achieve Pres. Trump's goal of forcing Iran into economic isolation. •To that end, Trump threatened Iran's trading partners yesterday, with a warning that "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences." It's not clear whether U.S. pressure influenced the UAE's decision to embargo Iran.

UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky was forced to sack his Deputy Chief of Staff, Iryna Mudra, after she was arrested on charges of money laundering. •The revelation of rot inside his own office is badly timed for Zelensky. It comes just a day after former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov - who Zelensky also ousted, but not for cause - spoke out about a crisis in Zelensky's government and called for new elections. •Fedorov plans to continue his crusade for reform. He'll travel to the U.S. next week, and there's speculation that he'll call on U.S. officials to seek their support for his efforts to force elections.

GAZA •Under pressure from critics, Israel's military said it would open criminal investigations into its troops' conduct in two cases that sparked widespread outrage: the killing of five-year-old Hind Rajab and six of her family members in Jan. 2024, and the shooting deaths of 14 medical workers and a UN employee in Mar. 2025. •Critics note that Israeli military investigations are slow and rarely result in convictions - even though the military only investigates the most egregious cases that generate the greatest public uproar. The military declined to take up three other cases in which troops killed aid workers, finding no grounds for a criminal investigation in any of those.

NORTH KOREA •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, cast doubt on Pres. Trump's claim that her brother had had a "very positive" response to Trump's recent gestures of friendship. She said she was "completely unaware" that her brother had responded at all - though she noted he had "fond personal memories and feelings" towards Trump. •Kim proclaimed that North Korea still views joint U.S.-South Korea military drills as "provocative and aggressive" - even though they were shortened and scaled down on Trump's orders - and said that if the U.S. intended the reduction "as some kind of ‘goodwill measure’, they will not get the answer they desire." •The answer Trump desires is rumored to be Kim's agreement to meet for an eighth time this fall. That could still happen, though: CSIS's Korea chair, Victor Cha, pointed out that Kim Yo Jong often plays "bad cop" in dealings with the U.S. so that her brother can be the "good cop." Her tough talk may only be bluster.