Hormuz Shipping, EU-Taliban Contacts, Venezuelan Debt and Ukraine’s Fuel Campaign

Off Leash update 24 June 2026

IRAN •Kpler, a data firm, reported that 109 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between Saturday and Monday. That's the most in a three-day period since the war began, but still far below the average daily pre-war rate of ~130 per day. •Iran does not appear to be restricting transits through the Strait - as it had threatened to do until all the conditions of its 60-day peace deal with the U.S. are met. Rather, shipping traffic seems constrained by the fact that vessels are avoiding the main central route through the Strait because of mines Iran laid in it. •The central route's closure is forcing ships through one of two alternate routes: a northern one that passes through Iranian waters, and a southern one that skirts Oman. •Iran has ordered all ships to use the northern route (and to request permission first), but many vessels seem to be flouting Iran's directive and taking the southern route under the watch of U.S. Navy vessels overseeing the area.

AFGHANISTAN •The EU hosted a delegation from Afghanistan's Taliban government for the first time since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. •The meeting agenda was fairly innocuous - they talked about resuming consular services for Afghans in Europe and "the need for trust-building measures" to pave the way for EU countries to send failed Afghan asylum-seekers back - but the mere fact that the EU dignified a repressive regime with a meeting didn't sit well with rights groups.

VENEZUELA •Venezuela is preparing to restructure its debt so it can reach a deal with its patient creditors and eventually re-enter international financial markets. •One of the first steps towards restructuring is to tally the total debt in question. Venezuela's government plans to reveal its outstanding borrowings in the coming weeks, and the Financial Times reported that the total figure is going to be a massive $240 billion. That's much higher than the $150-200 billion analysts expected and would make for the largest sovereign restructuring in history. •Caracas also plans to release a broader macroeconomic report that reportedly estimates its GDP at just $100 billion, compared to $370 billion in 2012. That puts its debt-to-GDP ratio at a highly unsustainable level of 240%. Caracas likely hopes that shocking figure will help convince its creditors to write down the debt they're owed.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian refineries have had such a severe impact on fuel supplies that Moscow is reportedly considering importing gasoline from abroad - and subsidizing it to soften the pain of higher prices for Russian consumers and companies. •A related Ukrainian campaign aims to cut off Russian-occupied Crimea's fuel supplies by targeting transport and shipping routes between the peninsula and mainland Russia. The resulting fuel shortages are squeezing Crimea's economy and choking off its important tourism sector: one tour company told RBC that 80% of its June bookings were cancelled. •Raising the cost of the war for Moscow was precisely the goal behind Kyiv's long-range strikes on Russia and Crimea, which Pres. Zelensky calls "long-range sanctions."