Situation report · November 26, 2025
Ukraine diplomacy, Bolsonaro’s imprisonment and Venezuela flight dispute lead 26 November update
A Gaza hostage-remains transfer; UN findings on rapid urban growth in Asia.
Key assessment · Editor summary
Several instances in which coercive deadlines or economic and regulatory pressure may be giving way to negotiation, resistance or unintended consequences.Editor summary from the source update.
5-point executive summary
Executive summary
- 01
President Trump removed a near-term deadline for Ukraine to accept a peace proposal while U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff prepared for talks with President Putin in Moscow.
- 02
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to begin a 27-year prison sentence as his remaining avenues of appeal narrowed.
- 03
Washington lifted most recently imposed levies on Brazilian food products, while some analysts assessed that Trump’s pressure had politically benefited President Lula.
- 04
Venezuela threatened to revoke operating clearances from airlines that suspended service following a U.S. FAA warning; IATA cautioned that revocations would further diminish connectivity.
- 05
Hamas returned the remains of hostage Dror Or, while cited UN findings placed Jakarta and Dhaka first and second among the world’s most populous cities.
Source post
@realErikDPrince
Off Leash update 26 Nov
UKRAINE •Pres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts. Trump's earlier (soft) deadline had been tomorrow; he now says "the deadline for me is when it's over." •That reprieve will give Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, time to meet Pres. Putin in Moscow next week to coax Putin into signing a peace deal. So far Putin has expressed little interest in peace - even on the favorable terms of the current proposal.
BRAZIL •Brazil's Supreme Court ordered ex-Pres. Bolsonaro to start his 27-year prison sentence as his appeal possibilities dwindle. •Pres. Trump imposed harsh sanctions on Brazil earlier this year as punishment for prosecuting his political ally, but he abruptly lifted most of the new levies on food goods late last week - despite Brazil's defiant pursuit of Bolsonaro's conviction. •Some analysts think Trump's tariff threats backfired and gave leftist Pres. Lula a popularity boost and a chance to portray himself as an underdog standing up to a bully.
VENEZUELA •Caracas was offended that several airlines - including Iberia, Gol, Latam, Avianca, TAP, and Turkish Airlines - temporarily paused flights to and from Venezuela because of a U.S. FAA warning, and Venezuela's aviation authority, INAC, ordered the airlines to resume flights within 48 hours or risk losing their flight clearance altogether. •IATA, a global aviation association, warned Venezuela that revoking clearances would backfire and further reduce "connectivity to the country, which is already one of the least connected in the region."
GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of an unnamed hostage that Israeli examiners later identified as Dror Or. That leaves just two deceased hostages left in Gaza.
URBANIZATION •A new UN report ranked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta as the world's most populous city, with 42 million people. Jakarta was only the 33rd largest city when the previous ranking was done in 2018, but it has since grown fast enough to outrank all 32 then-larger cities. •Dhaka, Bangladesh is now the world's second most populous city, and it's growing even faster than Jakarta is. The UN projects that Dhaka's population - currently 36 million - will surpass that of Jakarta by mid-century. •The report also noted that 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people now live in cities. That's more than twice the share of urban dwellers in 1950 (20%). •Nine of the world's 10 largest cities are in Asia; Cairo (32 million, #4) is the only non-Asian city in the top 10.
Intelligence events
12 developments, located and evidence-tagged
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Briefing map
Mapped developments
11 mapped developments across 7 map positions; 1 text-only development is not plotted. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Trump relaxes deadline for Ukrainian agreement
President Trump withdrew an earlier soft deadline for Ukraine to agree to a peace proposal under discussion with U.S. negotiators, saying his deadline was “when it's over.”
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Trump relaxes deadline for Ukrainian agreement
Ukraine, Ukraine
49.187, 31.292 · Country centroid — approximate
President Trump withdrew an earlier soft deadline for Ukraine to agree to a peace proposal under discussion with U.S. negotiators, saying his deadline was “when it's over.”
Pres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts.
Outside corroboration1
- Supportsgovinfo.gov
The official transcript records Trump saying on November 25, 2025, that he had no new deadline and that his deadline was “when it's over.”
Briefing index
People, places and event coverage
People & organizations
17- Donald TrumpU.S. president described as directing Ukraine diplomacy and changing economic pressure on Brazil
- Steve WitkoffU.S. envoy preparing to meet the Russian president
- Vladimir PutinRussian president and prospective participant in peace talks
- Jair BolsonaroFormer Brazilian president ordered to begin a prison sentence
- Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaPresident of Brazil
- Brazilian Supreme CourtCourt ordering Bolsonaro to begin his sentence
- INACVenezuelan aviation authority threatening airline clearances
- IATAAviation association warning about reduced Venezuelan connectivity
- IberiaAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- GolAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- LATAMAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- AviancaAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- TAPAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- Turkish AirlinesAirline pausing Venezuelan service
- HamasPalestinian armed group returning hostage remains
- Dror OrDeceased hostage whose remains were identified
- United NationsWith the urban-population rankings and projections
Places
9Event coverage
12- Active conflict4 developments
- Migration3 developments
- Political instability2 developments
- U.S. strategic interests3 developments
Citations
International & OSINT sources
- [1]Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Aboard Air Force One En Route to West Palm Beach, Floridagovinfo.gov · Corroboration · supports
The official transcript records Trump saying on November 25, 2025, that he had no new deadline and that his deadline was “when it's over.”
Accessed Jul 25, 2026
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