Palestinian Recognition Push, Sudan Fighting and U.S.–Venezuela Tensions

Off Leash update 22 Sept

COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA) culminates in some dramatic (by diplomatic standards) sessions this week. •Several more countries plan to recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN today, after four preponed their announcements to yesterday out of respect for the Jewish new year of Rosh Hashana, which begins today. Pres. Trump will address UNGA delegates tomorrow. •The Seychelles votes for president and parliament Thursday. •Aussie rules football world cup starts Saturday, which is also the 200th anniversary of the first passenger train, the UK's Stockton and Darlington Railway.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,672/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,907 •Cobalt: $34,550/ton •Copper: $9,989/ton •Ethereum: $4,204 •Gold: $3,713/toz •Lead: $1,997/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.93/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.01/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton

PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Australia, Canada, Portugal, and the UK recognized Palestinian statehood yesterday, and at least four more countries will make similar announcements today. •The U.S. and Israel vocally denounced the new recognitions and are boycotting a French-led UN conference on a two-state solution today. •Realist observers agree that formal recognition won't change the realities on the ground in Palestinian territories anyway. True statehood - with a functional government - looks even more elusive now than it did before Oct. 7. •It will fade even further from reality if Israel responds to this new wave of recognitions by annexing all but 18% of the West Bank, as it has threatened to do.

SUDAN •Sudan's military blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a "horrific" drone strike that killed over 70 worshippers at a mosque in Darfur on Friday. •There's credible evidence that the military has committed many horrific crimes of its own in the two-and-a-half-year civil war it's fighting against the RSF. •The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR)'s latest report on Sudan - which was published on Friday - noted that both sides have escalated attacks near civilian centers in 2025, leading to a near doubling in civilian fatalities in the first six months of this year vs. last year.

VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro wrote a direct letter to Pres. Trump on Sep. 6 - four days after the first U.S. strike on an alleged drug boat departing Venezuela - to vehemently Trump's accusations that Venezuela is a major drug exporter and plea for U.S.-Venezuela talks to defuse tensions. •Trump hasn't publicly acknowledged Maduro's letter, but the fact that his envoy, Richard Grenell, expressed hope that "we can still have a deal" suggests Trump may be open to negotiating. •However, two more U.S. strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug boats in the past week might complicate plans for talks. So might the Dominican Republic's confirmation that its coast guard recovered 377 packages of cocaine from the wreckage of the latest strike.

CHINA •The NYT made a good point about China's apparent acquiescence on divesting TikTok, after five years of fighting to keep control of the app. •While many viewed last week's divestment deal as a win for the U.S. and a concession from China, in the bigger picture of ongoing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, ownership of an app may be a very minor bargaining chip that China is happy to trade to "[buy] itself room to negotiate on the matters it cares about most: tariffs, technology and Taiwan." •The deal is not done yet, and its terms are not yet public.

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