Conflict, Political Pressure and Maritime Risks Shape the Week Ahead

Off Leash update 25 Nov Coming Up This Week

•The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastics Pollution (INC-5) meets in Busan, Korea today through Sunday. They aim to set targets and a timeline for reducing global plastic production, but it will be hard to reach concensus on plastics policy when we don't yet have clear scientific concensus on the risks plastics pose - and with plastics producers and oil companies resisting new regulation. •Indonesia votes in regional elections and Namibia votes in a general election on Wednesday. Indonesia's vote isn't getting much press: most of the regional races are inconsequential on the national scale and the overall vote seems more like a gauge of new president Joko Widodo's regional influence than a referendum on his policy plan. In Namibia, the long-ruling SWAPO party faces its toughest test yet because economic frustrations are driving younger voters away from the status quo and into the arms of upstart opposition parties. •The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday and shops Black Friday the following day. Only one of the two holidays has spread beyond U.S. borders: many other countries - including much of Europe and even Iran - now join in on the Black Friday shopping bonanza...but not the Thanksgiving feast. •Ireland votes in a snap election on Friday. Prime Minister Harris's Fine Gael party is polling in third place after losing one-fourth of its support over a series of gaffes in recent weeks, but its main coalition partner - Fianna Fail - is polling in first, so their coalition should prevail. Coommodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,624/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,968/ton •Gold: $2,640/toz •Lead: $2,022/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.53/barrel •Zinc: $2,967/ton Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas •Despite reported progress in Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire talks, both sides continued to exchange fire. Israel targeted a top Hezbollah military commander in central Beirut, killing at least 29 (but reportedly not the commander it was after). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing around 250 rockets into Israel, including at Tel Aviv (Israel intercepted most but there were a few injuries). •Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogan went missing in Abu Dhabi last Thursday and was found murdered yesterday. Israeli officials called his killing an "abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism," and UAE police arrested "three perpetrators involved in the murder." Israel has previously accused Iran and its proxies of targeting Israelis abroad, and Emirati police are investigating the possibility that Iran was behind this assassination. Ukraine / Yemen •Financial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine. •According to the Times report, many of the new recruits had no prior military training or experience and couldn't read the enlistment contracts they signed. Some said a man speaking non-native Arabic fired a pistol over their head and ordered them to sign a document written in Russian. •The other side of Russia's recruitment drive in Yemen is equally concerning: U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking assessed that Russia may be rewarding the Houthi leaders facilitating its recruitment with promises to send new weapons the Houthis can use to target Red Sea shipping. Pakistan •Thousands of supporters of deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan rallied in Islamabad to demand his release from jail - and the dissolution of the current government that jailed him. Khan faces over 150 criminal charges - which he says are politically motivated - and has been incarcerated for over a year. Afghanistan •An apparently lone gunman opened fire at a Sufi shrine in Afghanistan's Baghlan province during a weekly ritual on Friday, killing 10. 1/2