Off Leash Update: Russia, China, Venezuela, Israel and Islamic State

Off Leash Update 20 July

Russia •A Russian court sentenced WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on bogus espionage charges. •Gershkovich probably won't serve all 16 years: Pres. Putin has suggested he could be traded for a high-value Russian prisoner in a swap, but first he had to be sentenced (Russia generally doesn't swap prisoners until after their sentencing). China •China's Third Plenum ended without any meaningful economic policy announcements, disappointing analysts who'd hoped for bolder action to kickstart sluggish domestic growth. •Separately, former president Trump claimed Taiwan "stole" the American semiconductor industry and "should pay" for the U.S. guaranteeing its security. Shares in TSMC - Taiwan's (and the world's) largest chipmaker - slipped 2.4% on concerns that the U.S. might not come to Taiwan's defense if China invades while Trump is president. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, María Corina Machado - who was blocked from running against Pres. Maduro on July 28 - accused Maduro's goons of staging "a deliberate provocation" to incite her security chief, Milciades Ávila, to come to her physical defense. •Ávila did come to her defense, and he was promptly arrested for it. This is only the latest example of Maduro's security forces intimidating the opposition ahead of the election. •It's not as though Maduro even needs to bully the opposition: he's also electioneering in other ways, including by designing the ballot to show his own name and photo 13 times - under multiple "parties" - before it shows any of the opposition candidates running against him. •Banned from running herself, Machado is supporting the only serious opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who is currently leading several polls - though Maduro certainly won't let him win the real election. Gaza •Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, paid a provocative visit to the contested holy site of Al Aqsa / Temple Mount in Jerusalem, telling video cameras that he went to pray for the return of Hamas hostages - "but without a reckless deal, without surrendering." •Jordan condemned the visit as "a provocative step" and the White House complained about it as "counterproductive to peace and security in the West Bank" without mentioning Ben-Gvir by name. •Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated international law. Its opinion is nonbinding but influences the media and public perspectives. Terrorism •The Pentagon warned that claimed attacks by Islamic State (IS) are on track to more than double this year vs. last year. •IS has claimed 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 - and in just Syria and Iraq - compared to 121 attacks it claimed in all of 2023 in those two countries. •IS's affiliates have also stepped up their attacks in other regions like Afghanistan (IS-Khorasan) and the Sahel (IS West African Province). •An analyst attributed this year's rise in claimed IS attacks to increasing frustration with the government in Syria and Iraq - which is driving IS's ability to recruit new jihadists there - as well as competition from Iran-linked groups for U.S. counterterrorism priority - which is diverting resources away from fighting IS globally. Minerals •Anglo American said its diamond mining division, De Beers, would cut production amidst falling sales plamed in part on declining demand for diamonds in China.