Renewed G7 focus on Ukraine, disputed Iran terms, and a Russian shift in Mali

Off Leash update 17 June 2026

UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky had what Trump called a "very good" meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit both attended in Évian, France. •Trump left the meeting pledging to do "whatever I can" to end Ukraine's war with Russia, adding that Russia "should make a deal." Zelensky has blamed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for putting off peace talks. •Overall, it sounds like Ukraine is moving back up the G7's agenda now that Trump's attention has refocused on it. •G7 leaders issued a joint statement recognizing Ukraine's "progress on the battlefield in recent months" and committing to send Ukraine more air defense equipment.

RUSSIA •Robert Kuzovkov - a Russian painter exiled over art criticizing the Kremlin (as well as Pres. Trump and Xi Jinping) - was shot and killed in Poland. Two Belarusian men were arrested as suspects. •The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting dissidents, but too many Putin critics like Kuzovkov have turned up dead to blame chance.

IRAN •Bloomberg News published the full text of the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran already e-signed and expect to formalize on Friday. You can read it here: https://t.co/MQb4iI8wmo. •The full text is short - just one-and-a-half pages - and its language is rather vague and noncommittal. U.S. officials like Vice Pres. Vance insist it was kept deliberately ambiguous so Iran's leaders could sell it to their internal audience while agreeing to critical - but less politically palatable - specific commitments in back-channel talks. •The MoU's first point certainly seems to validate Iran's claim that the ceasefire requires Israel to stop striking Lebanon: "Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon..." (emphasis added). •Israel was not party to the MoU and rejects Iran's claim that the MoU requires Israeli forces to leave Lebanon. Indeed, Israeli forces carried out fresh airstrikes on southern Lebanon today.

MALI •Africa Defense Forum - AFRICOM's mouthpiece - published a new report showing that Russia's Africa Corps has been shifting its strategy in Mali after failing to deliver the security improvements Mali's junta hired them to effect. •After helplessly standing by and even retreating as jihadists overran Russian bases in April, the Russian fighters "are taking more of a backseat role" now, according to one analyst. •The Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support. •It's unclear how the Russian retreat will sit with the junta leaders, who have paid Wagner Group and Africa Corps almost $1 billion for their services and gotten poor results in return. Some Malian officials reportedly want to cut ties with Africa Corps.