Iran inspection dispute, Nigeria school abductions and Venezuelan opposition pressure

Off Leash update 21 Nov

IRAN •The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution asking Iran to provide an update "without delay" on the status of its enriched uranium stocks and the nuclear sites that were damaged by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June. •Iran promptly declined, and instead said it would renege on its commitment to give IAEA inspectors access to the damaged nuclear sites "until a decision is made and a conclusion is reached between us, the IAEA, and others." •No decision is likely to be reached soon, since Iran's talks with both the EU and the U.S. are at a stalemate. Meanwhile, some analysts think Iran is forging ahead on nuclear development at a new enrichment site called Pickax Mountain.

SAUDI ARABIA •New media reports suggest that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) may not have enough dry powder to make good on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS's) pledge to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. over the next four years. •Eleven people with insight into the fund's operations - including employees, board members, investors, and their representatives - told the NYT that PIF has scant cash for new opportunities because it has deployed almost all of its estimated $1 trillion to projects that aren't generating returns yet. •That said, even if PIF lacks the cash, Saudi has ample other sources of capital that MBS is eager to invest abroad.

NIGERIA •Gunmen broke into St. Mary's Catholic boarding school in Papiri, Niger State, overnight and reportedly abducted some pupils - though it's unclear how many. •Niger State officials partly blamed school staff for putting students in jeopardy by defying a state order to temporarily close all boarding schools, in light of a similar attack on a school in neighboring Kebbi State earlier this week. [Papiri is about 165 km (100 miles) - or roughly four hours on bad Nigerian roads - from the Kebbi school that 24 (Muslim) schoolgirls were taken from on Monday.] •Pres. Tinubu is keen to show he's taking action to address insecurity before Pres. Trump makes good on his threat to send U.S. troops to intervene. Tinubu cancelled his plans to attend the G20 summit in South Africa to focus on the school abductions, and he ordered his defense minister to temporarily relocate to Kebbi State to lead the response directly.

VENEZUELA •Norwegian organizers planning the Dec. 10 Nobel Peace Prize ceremony confirmed to local media that this year's winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, intends to leave hiding in Venezuela and travel to Norway to accept her award in person. •Officials in Nicolas Maduro's government quickly seized on the opportunity to further harass Machado as she prepares to be honored for her bravery in standing up to their persistent intimidation thus far. •Attorney General Tarek Saab said she would be "considered a fugitive" if she left the country, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello preemptively celebrated her departure, adding sardonically: "we're going to miss her." •These new threats are unlikely to bother Machado, who already faces far graver charges than fleeing arrest. But she may not be able to return while Maduro remains in power. •It's unclear whether she intends to return quickly or will try to lead the opposition from abroad. Earlier this week, she published a new "freedom manifesto" that declared Venezuela to be "at the edge of a new era," but provided few details on her near-term plans or vision for the country.