Venezuela warrant, Gaza ceasefire pressure, Putin’s Mongolia visit and regional crises

Off Leash update 3 Sept Venezuela •A Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez - the opposition candidate who defeated Pres. Maduro in the July 28 presidential election - on charges of "usurpation," conspiracy, and sabotage. •The usurpation charge is particularly curious, given that Gonzalez has a very legitimate claim to the presidency Maduro accuses him of trying to usurp: the opposition's online tallies showed that Gonzalez received over twice as many votes as Pres. Maduro (67% vs. 30%), which is consistent with exit polls and pre-election independent surveys. [Maduro and his allies have refused to provide evidence for their dubious claims that Maduro won 52% of the vote.] •The arrest warrant is a significant escalation in Maduro's campaign to silence the opposition, but not an unexpected one: Maduro and his close allies have increasingly called for the arrest of Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (who won the opposition's primary but was banned from running against Maduro herself). •Gonzalez and Machado are both in hiding but continue their campaign from there. Machado reacted to the warrant on Gonzalex on X: "Threatening the President-elect will only achieve more cohesion and increase the support of Venezuelans and the world for Edmundo Gonzalez." •Separately, the U.S. seized Maduro's Dassault Falcon 900EX from the Dominican Republic and brought it to Florida. •The U.S. Department of Justice justified seizing the plane - which CNN called "Venezuela's Air Force One" - on grounds that it was bought illegally through a shell company and "smuggled" to Venezuela "for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies" in violation of international sanctions. Gaza •PM Netanyahu defiantly withstood pressure from over 100,000 protesters who demonstrated across Israel for a ceasefire deal to secure the release of ~70 surviving Israeli hostages still in Hamas's hands. •Netanyahu rejected the idea of making "concessions" to secure a deal, and told a press conference the war will only end "when Hamas no longer rules Gaza." •Israel's largest trade union - representing over 800,000 people - had called its first strike since Oct. 7 in support of a deal, but it quickly complied with a court order to end the strike the day it started. •While a ceasefire remains as elusive as ever, there was a tiny bit of good news from Gaza: the WHO's polio vaccination campaign is remarkably running ahead of schedule - despite the backdrop of an ongoing war. Around a quarter of Gazan children under 10 have already been vaccinated since innoculations started on Sunday. Russia •Pres. Putin landed in Mongolia today, marking the first time he's set foot in a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest. ICC member states are obligated to carry out the court's arrest warrants when a subject enters their territory. •Mongolia declined to execute the ICC's warrant for Putin's arrest, and offered him a red carpet welcome instead. •Putin was clearly confident that Mongolia's reliance on Russian fuel would trump its (unenforceable) ICC obligations. Ahead of his arrival in Mongolia, a Kremlin spokesman brushed off concerns that he could be arrested there: "There are no worries, we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia." DRC •Inmates at Kinshasa's Makala prison attempted a jailbreak early yesterday under the cover of a large fire, but guards quickly regained control by shooting at least 24 prisoners dead. Another 80 or more died in the stampede or from smoke inhalation. Libya •The UN brought Libya's rival sides together for talks on resolving their dispute over the central bank's leadership. Mediators claimed the two sides achieved "significant" understanding and agreed to submit proposals for a resolution for review today. That seems too quick to come up with a solution to a dispute that's been simmering for over a decade.