Xi’s Serbia Visit, UK-Russia Tensions, Gaza Arms Policy and Herat Attack

Off Leash Update 9 May

China •Pres. Xi visited Belgrade yesterday on the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Serbia, but surprised analysts by skipping a visit to the site of the errant airstrike. •Almost all Chinese officials visiting Serbia pay a visit to the site - Xi himself did on his last trip there in 2016 - so its omission from his itinerary this time was unusual. Some speculated he avoided it this time because a visit would reopen old wounds at a time when his government is trying to mend strained ties with NATO countries. •Serbia's government made Xi feel right at home by arresting dissidents ahead of his visit and ordering state workers to applaud his brief appearance with Pres. Vucic outside the Palace of Serbia. That helped avoid embarrassing protests like Xi faced during his 2016 tour of Eastern Europe. Russia •The UK accused Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) of a pattern of "malign activity" and expelled an unnamed senior Russian official who was apparently not declared to British authorities (as diplomats of his rank should be). •This latest escalation apparently began when the FSB tried to meddle with a British research group combatting the sort of disinformation Russian bots spread online. Gaza •Pres. Biden acknowledged for the first time that U.S.-supplied bombs have killed Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and warned that the U.S. would stop supplying certain big bombs and artillery shells to Israel if it launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah. •This isn't the end of U.S. support for Israel, though: the U.S. would only (continue to) withhold the deadliest offensive weapons, and would continue to send Israel Iron Dome rocket interceptors and other defensive munitions. •In any case, Israel seems to have already scaled back its invasion plans for Rafah to a more "limited" operation that's less likely to jeopardize ongoing ceasefire talks - or U.S. weapons shipments. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack on a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan. Like most of IS's attacks in Afghanistan, this one targeted the Shia minority.