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10 developments across 8 briefings for this country.
Latest linked intelligence
Kiir may hope the public blames Ohisa for declining oil revenue, cash shortages, inflation, and currency depreciation. Reappointing a recently dismissed former governor is assessed as a possible sign that Kiir is running out of allies.
Assessment development · updated through
Kiir may hope the public blames Ohisa for declining oil revenue, cash shortages, inflation, and currency depreciation. Reappointing a recently dismissed former governor is assessed as a possible sign that Kiir is running out of allies.
Open source reportGeography
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South Sudan dossier
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South Sudan
Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects agreed to lend South Sudan €12 billion in exchange for future oil production. Repayments could absorb essentially all of the country’s oil flows.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Kiir offered no reason for removing Ohisa, but he probably hopes the public will blame Ohisa for the economic woes that have worsened on Kiir's watch - which include waning oil revenues, an acute cash shortage, rampant inflation, and currency devaluation.
Kiir may hope the public blames Ohisa for declining oil revenue, cash shortages, inflation, and currency depreciation. Reappointing a recently dismissed former governor is assessed as a possible sign that Kiir is running out of allies.
Open source reportSouth Sudan's Pres. Kiir sacked his central bank governor, Johnny Ohisa, and replaced him with economist Addis Ababa Othow.
President Salva Kiir dismissed Johnny Ohisa and reappointed economist Addis Ababa Othow, who served as central bank governor from June to November of the previous year before being replaced by Ohisa.
Open source reportAnyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war.
South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
Open source reportSouth Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups.
President Salva Kiir dismissed his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official. It also repeats rumors about Kiir's health and distrust of potential successors and repeated loyalty-driven dismissals have weakened the administration.
Open source reportThe South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat."
The SSPDF announced that it recaptured parts of Jonglei, while the SPLM/A-IO acknowledged a withdrawal but characterized it as strategic. The opposition also genocide, rape, and other atrocities by government forces; those allegations are. The shift prompted concern about renewed civil war.
Open source reportThe UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources."
A UN human-rights commission blamed President Salva Kiir’s and First Vice President Riek Machar’s camps for corruption, failing public services, preventable deaths, and armed conflict over resources. According to the, report a claim that the government collected $25.2 billion in oil revenue since 2011 while directing little to essential services.
Open source reportSouth Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war.... Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
The Kiir- and Machar-aligned camps appear to be preparing for conflict and that South Sudan is moving closer to another civil war.
Open source reportForces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday.
Forces loyal to President Salva Kiir conducted airstrikes against a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba and subsequently arrested several of Machar’s senior allies.
Open source reportwatchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war.
Police arrested Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol and SPLM-IO military leader Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, both allies of Vice President Riek Machar. President Salva Kiir ordered arrests of senior commanders aligned with Machar, prompting concern that the rivals could abandon the 2018 peace agreement and renew civil war.
Open source reportHamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBKDOP) - struck a deal to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for future oil production. The huge size of the deal means HBKDOP could receive essentially all of South Sudan's oil flows as repayments.
Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects agreed to lend South Sudan €12 billion in exchange for future oil production. Repayments could absorb essentially all of the country’s oil flows.
Open source report