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24 developments across 18 briefings for this region.
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According to the Atlantic Council, an assessment that entertaining LNA claims to power could formalize dominant family and patronage networks and convert managed instability into a formal settlement.
Assessment development · updated through
According to the Atlantic Council, an assessment that entertaining LNA claims to power could formalize dominant family and patronage networks and convert managed instability into a formal settlement.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
North Africa dossier
21 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Tripoli
Assailants fired rocket-propelled grenades at Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s residence without causing casualties. Responsibility was described as unknown; a possible connection to militias supporting the rival Benghazi government was speculative.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement."
According to the Atlantic Council, an assessment that entertaining LNA claims to power could formalize dominant family and patronage networks and convert managed instability into a formal settlement.
Open source reportLt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met LNA Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar, while Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and other U.S. officials met the deputy defense minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity.
Open source reportAl Haddad was in Turkey on a state visit where he secured Ankara's agreement to keep troops in Libya to bolster the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for another year.
Al Haddad secured Ankara's agreement during a state visit to retain Turkish troops supporting Libya's UN-recognized government for another year.
Open source reportKhalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan.
Khalifa Haftar’s LNA agreed to buy more than $4 billion in Pakistani arms and equipment. An earlier draft listed 16 JF-17 fighters and 12 Super Mushak trainers, but final details are unclear and questions whether the deal will proceed under the UN arms embargo.
Open source reportNOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
According to NOC head Masoud Suleiman, a statement that 40 companies expressed interest in 22 exploration blocks in Libya’s first bidding round in more than 17 years.
Open source reportLibya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation announced a significant oil discovery at well H1-NC4 in the Ghadames Basin. It also references an earlier OMV discovery in the Sirte Basin.
Open source reportThat would also boost the odds of a long-term stalemate splitting Sudan in two, with an army-run east and an RSF-controlled west. As always, reality surely lies somewhere between the extremes.
Consolidating RSF control in western Darfur could increase the probability of a long-term stalemate featuring an army-held east and RSF-controlled west, while cautioning that reality likely lies between the competing narratives.
Open source reportSudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had seized the army's Sixth Division Headquarters in El Fasher, Darfur. There are two conflicting narratives on the significance of the RSF's pronouncement.
An RSF claim that it seized the Sudanese army’s Sixth Division headquarters. Conflicting accounts over whether the facility was undefended and of limited value or represented the army’s last major bastion in western Sudan.
Open source reportlocal reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region.
Local claims that fighters loyal to eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar crossed into Sudan to support the RSF’s operation in the triangle region.
Open source reportSudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya.
The RSF claimed the strategic triangle adjoining Egypt and Libya. It adds that Sudan’s military acknowledged retreating from the area as part of what it called defensive arrangements.
Open source reportOil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007.
Libya pressed OMV, Eni/BP and Repsol to resume exploration and that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq planned onshore and offshore bidding in late 2024 or early 2025, which would be the first new tenders since 2007.
Open source reportAustrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule.
Austrian oil company OMV resumed Sirte basin operations several weeks ahead of schedule and that Libya’s National Oil Corporation welcomed the restart.
Open source reportItaly's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon.
Eni and BP began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin after a ten-year hiatus, while Repsol and OMV were preparing to resume activity in the Murzuq and Sirte basins respectively.
Open source reportA delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues).
U.S. assistant- and deputy-level officials visited Libya to support efforts by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and Khalifa Haftar to resolve a dispute over central-bank leadership and oil-revenue management.
Open source reportOil prices fell 4% on weak demand and the prospect of Libyan oil reentering an already-oversupplied market.
Oil prices fell 4%, attributing the decline to weak demand and expectations that a political settlement could allow Libyan oil production to resume.
Open source reportLibya's rival legislatures agreed to appoint a mutually agreeable candidate to lead the central bank within 30 days.
Libya’s rival legislatures agreed to select a mutually acceptable central-bank leader within 30 days, potentially easing the institution’s leadership crisis.
Open source reportThe UN brought Libya's rival sides together for talks on resolving their dispute over the central bank's leadership. Mediators claimed the two sides achieved "significant" understanding and agreed to submit proposals for a resolution for review today.
Libya’s rival sides reached what mediators called significant understanding and agreed to submit proposals. A rapid resolution is unlikely given the dispute’s duration.
Open source reportLibya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000.
Libya convicted 12 current and former officials of negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed the previous year. A death toll of at least 4,300, possibly exceeding 12,000; several defendants were ordered to repay illicitly obtained funds.
Open source reportThat seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Renewed international airline service would indicate stabilization in Libya, while noting reported delays and cost overruns in revitalizing the airport.
Open source reportRoyal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too.
Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways planned to resume flights to Tripoli during the month of the post after a long hiatus, while Saudi Airlines was said to be discussing Tripoli service.
Open source reportthe State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya."
The U.S. State Department said Amentum provides Libyan armed groups with classroom instruction rather than military training and conducts the sessions outside Libya.
Open source reportPM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders.
Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s government hired U.S. security contractor Amentum to train the 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, unify divergent factions, and strengthen Libya’s borders. U.S. State Department coordination.
Open source reportThe Irish Times reported that an Irish company called Irish Training Solutions (ITS) is using former Irish soldiers to train Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army's (LNA's) 166 Infantry Brigade in the east of the country.
Irish Training Solutions is using former Irish soldiers to train the Libyan National Army's 166 Infantry Brigade. An allegation that the arrangement may breach the UN arms embargo but questions whether the assistance clearly violates it.
Open source reportAssailants attacked Tripoli PM Dbeibah's residence with rocket-propelled grenades yesterday, causing alarm but no casualties. It's not clear who was responsible, but it could have been one of the militias that supports the rival government in Benghazi.
Assailants fired rocket-propelled grenades at Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s residence without causing casualties. Responsibility was described as unknown; a possible connection to militias supporting the rival Benghazi government was speculative.
Open source report