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25 developments across 18 briefings for this region.
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South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
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South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
East Africa dossier
21 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Approximately 400 km northwest of Nairobi
Gen. Francis Ogolla and nine other senior Kenyan military officials died in an apparently accidental helicopter crash. Two survivors, including the pilot.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war.
South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
Open source report“Closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.”
Closing official posts will have limited containment value because substantial movement continues along informal footpaths and landing sites across the approximately 880-kilometer border.
Open source report“Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala.”
Uganda closed its six official border posts with the Democratic Republic of the Congo after confirming seven Ebola cases in Kampala linked by the post to an outbreak originating in DRC’s Ituri province.
Open source reportThe border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Closing six official crossings will have limited effect because substantial cross-border traffic uses informal paths and landing sites.
Open source reportUganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala.
Uganda closed its border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo after confirming seven Ebola cases in Kampala linked to an outbreak originating in the DRC’s Ituri province.
Open source reportSouth Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups.
President Salva Kiir dismissed his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official. It also repeats rumors about Kiir's health and distrust of potential successors and repeated loyalty-driven dismissals have weakened the administration.
Open source reportDjibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75.
Djibouti will vote on April 10; President Ismail Omar Guelleh will secure a sixth term after parliament removed an age restriction that would have made him ineligible.
Open source reportThe South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat."
The SSPDF announced that it recaptured parts of Jonglei, while the SPLM/A-IO acknowledged a withdrawal but characterized it as strategic. The opposition also genocide, rape, and other atrocities by government forces; those allegations are. The shift prompted concern about renewed civil war.
Open source reportTanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in to a new term as nationwide protests against her sham re-election continued.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan took the oath at a televised military-venue ceremony amid nationwide protests. Questions remain about official turnout and vote figures; her two principal rivals had been barred from running.
Open source reportThe main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue
A nationwide curfew and internet restrictions, while relaying CHADEMA’s unsupported allegation that security officers killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continued and the opposition leader remained imprisoned awaiting sentencing.
Open source reportTanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote.
Tanzania’s election commission declared President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner with 98% of the vote; turnout substantially higher than in 2020. Questions remain about the contest’s competitiveness because Hassan’s principal rivals were barred from running.
Open source reportThe two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running... Hassan's government has spent recent months arresting its critics. Dozens of opposition figures - and even outspoken CCM reformers - have disappeared, and authorities seem (justifiably) afraid of mass "Gen Z" protests around the election.
Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo were barred from the presidential election; authorities arrested critics while dozens of opposition figures and ruling-party reformers disappeared. Officials fear mass youth-led protests around the vote.
Open source reportThe UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources."
A UN human-rights commission blamed President Salva Kiir’s and First Vice President Riek Machar’s camps for corruption, failing public services, preventable deaths, and armed conflict over resources. According to the, report a claim that the government collected $25.2 billion in oil revenue since 2011 while directing little to essential services.
Open source reportSudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both.
As credible Sudan's accusations that the UAE supplies the RSF with weapons and mercenaries through Nyala airport.
Open source reportState media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army.
Sudanese state media claims that Sudan's air force destroyed an Emirati aircraft carrying 40 Colombian mercenaries as it landed at RSF-controlled Nyala airport.
Open source reportRuto sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.")
President William Ruto sent police to infiltrate and agitate protests; him saying police should shoot protesters in the legs.
Open source reportMany Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba
Kenyans demonstrated on Monday during the Saba Saba commemoration amid declining public trust in the government.
Open source reportSouth Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war.... Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
The Kiir- and Machar-aligned camps appear to be preparing for conflict and that South Sudan is moving closer to another civil war.
Open source reportForces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday.
Forces loyal to President Salva Kiir conducted airstrikes against a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba and subsequently arrested several of Machar’s senior allies.
Open source reportwatchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war.
Police arrested Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol and SPLM-IO military leader Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, both allies of Vice President Riek Machar. President Salva Kiir ordered arrests of senior commanders aligned with Machar, prompting concern that the rivals could abandon the 2018 peace agreement and renew civil war.
Open source reportKenya's Pres. Ruto fired 14 of his 15 cabinet ministers in a belated response to nationwide protests against his government and new taxes it sought to impose
President William Ruto fired 14 of 15 cabinet ministers following nationwide protests against his administration and proposed taxes that were subsequently withdrawn.
Open source reportKenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods.
Kenya’s debt burden will require the government to identify revenue other than the rejected taxes on basic goods.
Open source reportI concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn.
President William Ruto declined to sign Kenya’s 2024 finance bill; it would be withdrawn after protests against its proposed taxes.
Open source reportHamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBKDOP) - struck a deal to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for future oil production. The huge size of the deal means HBKDOP could receive essentially all of South Sudan's oil flows as repayments.
Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects agreed to lend South Sudan €12 billion in exchange for future oil production. Repayments could absorb essentially all of the country’s oil flows.
Open source reportKenya's military chief, Gen. Francis Ogolla, died along with nine other senior Kenyan military officials in an apparently accidental helicopter crash about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Nairobi.
Gen. Francis Ogolla and nine other senior Kenyan military officials died in an apparently accidental helicopter crash. Two survivors, including the pilot.
Open source report