Moldova vote and Russian airspace activity lead September 29 update

Off Leash update 29 Sept

COMING UP THIS WEEK •The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) - which waived tariffs for U.S. imports from developing African countries - expires tomorrow. AGOA was underutilized but benefitted a few African manufacturing industries that blossomed without tariffs. •China's Golden Week public holiday starts Wednesday, which is also the day Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for a month. •U.S. lawmakers are frantically negotiating a new funding plan and must agree on one by Wednesday to avoid a government shutdown. The Economist says both Republicans and Democrats "are bullish, betting that the public will blame the other party for a shutdown." •The inaugural edition of African Energy Week (AEW) takes place in Cape Town from Tues to Friday. AEW's organizers want the new event to inspire new innovations in Energy - in contrast to the long-established annual African Mining Indaba, which touches on novel ideas but keeps a higher-level focus on large deals and legacy assets.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,656/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,518 •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,182/ton •Ethereum: $4,148 •Gold: $3,825/toz - yet another all-time high on expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and rising demand for (perceived) safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical uncertainty •Lead: $2,003/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.20/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.69/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton

MOLDOVA •Despite what Pres. Sandu called "massive Russian interference" to sway the vote, Moldova's pro-European Action and Solidarity party looks likely to win yesterday's parliamentary elections, with more than twice as many votes as the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc and 99.9% of votes counted. •Full results are due out tomorrow. Some observers have suggested that Russia may try to provoke protests to overturn the outcome.

RUSSIA •Ukraine's military spy agency released its written assessment of Russia's motives behind its recent drone incursions into Polish airspace: "Such hybrid operations likely aim to increase pressure on Ukraine's Western partners, potentially leading to: Reduced support for Ukraine, especially military aid." •While this report covered only the Polish incidents, Russia has seemingly been aerially annoying other NATO countries, too: Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Romania have all reported suspected Russian drone activity in recent weeks, and Estonia observed the even more serious incursion of three Russian MiGs on Sep. 19. •NATO leaders don't agree on how to respond to Russia's incursions, and some are even hesitant to conclude Russia is intentionally violating NATO airspace. •That's precisely the point of this type of "hybrid warfare:" to keep tactics below the threshold of armed conflict that would guarantee a forceful response, while sowing confusion and debate to distract adversaries from mounting a unified response to concurrent campaigns of overt violence. •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky claims Russia is launching its nuisance drones from the shadow fleet of oil tankers that it uses to evade sanctions. Zelensky called for new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers in response. 1/2