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The Action and Solidarity party was leading the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc by more than two to one with 99.9% counted. According to President Maia Sandu, an allegation of “massive Russian interference”; final results were still due, and speculation about possible protests.
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The Action and Solidarity party was leading the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc by more than two to one with 99.9% counted. According to President Maia Sandu, an allegation of “massive Russian interference”; final results were still due, and speculation about possible protests.
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Maia Sandu dossier
3 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Moldova
Moldova confirmed passage of a referendum on eventual EU membership. The narrow outcome partly to Russian efforts come from buy 300,000 votes against the measure and quotes President Maia Sandu calling the intervention “fraud of an unprecedented scale.”
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 29 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) - which waived tariffs for U.S. imports from developing African countries - expires tomorrow. AGOA was underutilized but benefitted a few African manufacturing industries that blossomed without tariffs. •China's Golden Week public holiday starts Wednesday, which is also the day Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for a month. •U.S. lawmakers are frantically negotiating a new funding plan and must agree on one by Wednesday to avoid a government shutdown. The Economist says both Republicans and Democrats "are bullish, betting that the public will blame the other party for a shutdown." •The inaugural edition of African Energy Week (AEW) takes place in Cape Town from Tues to Friday. AEW's organizers want the new event to inspire new innovations in Energy - in contrast to the long-established annual African Mining Indaba, which touches on novel ideas but keeps a higher-level focus on large deals and legacy assets. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,656/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,518 •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,182/ton •Ethereum: $4,148 •Gold: $3,825/toz - yet another all-time high on expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and rising demand for (perceived) safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical uncertainty •Lead: $2,003/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.20/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.69/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton MOLDOVA •Despite what Pres. Sandu called "massive Russian interference" to sway the vote, Moldova's pro-European Action and Solidarity party looks likely to win yesterday's parliamentary elections, with more than twice as many votes as the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc and 99.9% of votes counted. •Full results are due out tomorrow. Some observers have suggested that Russia may try to provoke protests to overturn the outcome. RUSSIA •Ukraine's military spy agency released its written assessment of Russia's motives behind its recent drone incursions into Polish airspace: "Such hybrid operations likely aim to increase pressure on Ukraine's Western partners, potentially leading to: Reduced support for Ukraine, especially military aid." •While this report covered only the Polish incidents, Russia has seemingly been aerially annoying other NATO countries, too: Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Romania have all reported suspected Russian drone activity in recent weeks, and Estonia observed the even more serious incursion of three Russian MiGs on Sep. 19. •NATO leaders don't agree on how to respond to Russia's incursions, and some are even hesitant to conclude Russia is intentionally violating NATO airspace. •That's precisely the point of this type of "hybrid warfare:" to keep tactics below the threshold of armed conflict that would guarantee a forceful response, while sowing confusion and debate to distract adversaries from mounting a unified response to concurrent campaigns of overt violence. •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky claims Russia is launching its nuisance drones from the shadow fleet of oil tankers that it uses to evade sanctions. Zelensky called for new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers in response. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
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