Ukraine diplomacy, Australia-Japan naval deal and offshore oil activity

Off Leash update 5 August

UKRAINE •Pres. Trump said he may send envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia this week to push Pres. Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire: "We’ve got to get to a deal where people stop getting killed." •Last Monday, Trump gave Putin 10 to 12 days to agree to a truce or face new sanctions - though Trump himself conceded that Putin could well ignore his ultimatum. Witkoff's visit may be a last-ditch effort to reach a deal before Trump's deadline.

JAPAN •Australia signed a A$10 billion ($6.5 billion) deal with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build 11 Mogami-class multi-role warships for the Royal Australian Navy. The first three frigates will be built in Japan and delivered starting in 2029; the subsequent eight units will be built in Western Australia by Australia's own Austral (with Japanese help). •Japan ended its military export ban in 2014, and this is its largest defense deal since. It's also Australia's largest-ever defense deal.

OIL •BP announced its largest new discovery in decades around 400 km offshore Brazil. Lab analysis will quantify the full extent of the discovery. •Separately, Wood Mackenzie said it expects Suriname to surpass Guyana in new oil exploration and drilling activity in 2025. Petronas, Chevron, Shell, and Total Energies are all actively operating in Suriname this year, thanks to recent Surinamese investment in licensing and regulating its natural resources.