Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion, Venezuelan Crackdown and Middle East Force Movements

Off Leash update 13 Aug

Russia •The acting governor of Kursk told Pres. Putin that invading Ukrainian forces now control 28 towns and villages in the Russian border region, and Russia's defense ministry acknowledged the Ukrainians have advanced about 30 km into Russian territory. •Ukraine's top commander claimed his forces now control "about 1,000 square kilometers" (390 square miles) of Russia. •The incursion seems to be getting to Putin. Speaking outside his residence, he complained: "The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians. The enemy will certainly get the response he deserves, and all our goals, without doubt, will be accomplished." •Putin ordered his military to join the border guard's effort to push Ukrainian forces back across the border, suggesting the border guard alone isn't capable of repelling the invaders. •The NYT assessed that the Ukrainian incursion has two goals: "to draw Russian forces from the front lines in eastern Ukraine and to seize territory that could serve as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations." Venezuela •Pres. Maduro ordered his defense council to intensify a crackdown on the opposition with "greater speed, greater efficiency and an iron fist." •Maduro has also recently urged Venezuelans to report on their peers who express skepticism about his official (but fraudulent) election results using a state-run app designed for reporting power outages. He additionally ordered upgrades to two prisons to house more political inmates swept up in the crackdown. •Election winner Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remain in hiding, citing fears for their safety and the threat of arrest on outstanding orders - especially after Maduro called them out by name again yesterday ("Where is Mr Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia? Why did he flee? why does he not show his face? Where is the greatest fascist, Mrs Machado, who ordered to kill, who ordered to assassinate?"). •The opposition is organizing global protests against Maduro's stolen election on Saturday, Aug. 17. Iran •The White House expects Iran to stage "a significant set of attacks" in the coming days or weeks in retaliation for the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last month. •In response to the Iranian threat, the Pentagon took the unusual step of publicizing the destination of one of its nuclear-powered guided missile submarines: the USS Georgia is heading from the Mediterranean to the Middle East "in light of escalating regional tensions." •The USS Lincoln carrier strike group will also "accelerate" its planned journey from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. Gaza •Hamas acknowledged that its guards killed one male hostage and seriously injured two female hostages in two separate incidents. It didn't identify the victims or elaborate on the circumstances, and Israel hasn't been able to corroborate the scant info Hamas offered. •This was the first time Hamas acknowledged that its own militants have harmed hostages: in the past, it blamed Israeli strikes or ground operations for hostage casualties. China •Hong Kong's top court refused to overturn the conviction of former media mogul Jimmy Lai for unlawful assembly during pro-democracy demonstrations. Lai has already served his time on those charges, but remains in solitary confinement on more serious national security charges related to the demonstrations. DRC •Zambia and DRC have already agreed to reopen their shared border following a brief trade spat. The closure lasted only three days because they need each other: Zambia is DRC's second-largest source of imports and DRC is Zambia's fifth-largest.