Trump pursues North Korea opening as Oman faces pressure over Hormuz talks

Off Leash update 18 August 2026

NORTH KOREA •Some analysts speculated that Pres. Trump's announcement about reducing joint military drills with South Korea wasn't really about South Korea at all. Rather, they suggested, it was a gesture intended to woo North Korea's Kim Jong Un into another round of diplomacy. •That now looks correct, and it seems it worked. Pres. Trump told reporters yesterday that Kim sent a "very positive" response to his overture, but declined to confirm reports that he hopes the outreach will lead to a new summit with Kim. •Analysts point out that Trump's past summits with Kim achieved no major breakthroughs on U.S. objectives like preventing North Korea from further advancing its nuclear weapons programs. Pyongyang now has 3-6 times more assembled nuclear warheads than it did before Trump and Kim signed a toothless denuclearization agreement in 2018, and it has also since developed missiles capable of striking the U.S. •It's hard to see what Trump stands to gain by re-engaging Kim. Kim is unlikely to agree to scale back his arsenal, and he has no reason to stop further nuclear work if Trump asks him nicely to do so. The one thing that renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue might achieve is to cause concern for South Korea, which is on Trump's bad side for refusing to support his Iran war.

IRAN •Pres. Trump threatened Oman - a longtime U.S. ally - in a phone interview with Fox News: "If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them." •Oman - which is sometimes dubbed "the Switzerland of the Middle East" for its strict neutrality amidst regional conflicts - isn't known for getting in anyone's way. It was historically one of the main mediators facilitating communication between the U.S. and Iran, and serves as a principal go-between for indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations today. •What got Oman in Trump's sights was its negotiations with Iran on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. was excluded from those talks and objects to rumored provisions to eventually let Iran and Oman charge fees (i.e., tolls) to ships transiting the waterway. •Trump may hope his threats pressure Oman into either walking away from talks with Iran or advocating a plan more favorable to the U.S. than the current proposal.

ZAMBIA •Zambia's Electoral Commission declared President Hakainde Hichilema the winner of last week's election, securing a second term with 60% of the vote. His victory suggests voters are happy with the economic reforms he enacted during his first five-year term. •Critics accused Hichilema's government of bullying the opposition, but observers noted no major irregularities during the campaign and the main opposition candidate - Brian Mundubile - still won 38% of the vote, which observers said was largely free and fair. •Things quickly turned sour after polls closed, though. Mundubile accused the government of manipulating the vote in Hichilema's favor, without providing evidence. The government then accused Mundubile and other senior opposition figures of plotting an armed insurrection, and arrested 11 people in a raid on Mundubile's home. The reality is murky.

TAIWAN •Taiwan's proposed a 2027 budget that gives citizens cash handouts of NT$10,000 ($314) as a way to share the windfall profits the country's semiconductor industry has piled up lately. That sector is the main driver behind Taiwan's double-digit economic growth, which the statistics bureau forecasts will reach an annualized rate of 11.1% this year.