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32 developments across 17 briefings for this region.
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Rodríguez is unlikely to resolve excluded political-prisoner cases or facilitate María Corina Machado’s return because Machado remains a popular political threat. Machado faces treason charges and that the government wants to count her among excluded cases.
Assessment development · updated through
Rodríguez is unlikely to resolve excluded political-prisoner cases or facilitate María Corina Machado’s return because Machado remains a popular political threat. Machado faces treason charges and that the government wants to count her among excluded cases.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Latin America dossier
28 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ecuador
An assessment that President Daniel Noboa may have expected the arrest to improve his approval ratings before the following year’s election.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.
Rodríguez is unlikely to resolve excluded political-prisoner cases or facilitate María Corina Machado’s return because Machado remains a popular political threat. Machado faces treason charges and that the government wants to count her among excluded cases.
Open source reportVenezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S.
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez ended an amnesty enacted in February under U.S. pressure. Rodríguez claimed 8,616 releases, while rights groups put the number near 700; 473 political prisoners remain detained or have been reincarcerated.
Open source reportBut she may not be able to return while Maduro remains in power. •It's unclear whether she intends to return quickly or will try to lead the opposition from abroad.
Machado may be unable to return while Nicolás Maduro remains in power; it is unclear whether she would attempt a quick return or lead the Venezuelan opposition from abroad.
Open source reportAttorney General Tarek Saab said she would be "considered a fugitive" if she left the country, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello preemptively celebrated her departure, adding sardonically: "we're going to miss her."
María Corina Machado intends to leave hiding in Venezuela and travel to Norway for the December 10 Nobel Peace Prize ceremony. Venezuelan officials said she would be considered a fugitive if she departed.
Open source reportPres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land
President Trump said the United States was prepared to strike drug-linked targets on land but acknowledged that congressional approval might be required. Any such expansion remains prospective.
Open source reportTwo more U.S. strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug boats in the past week might complicate plans for talks. So might the Dominican Republic's confirmation that its coast guard recovered 377 packages of cocaine from the wreckage of the latest strike.
The United States conducted two more strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug boats and that the Dominican Republic’s coast guard recovered 377 packages of cocaine from wreckage associated with the latest strike.
Open source reportBloomberg reported that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro wrote a direct letter to Pres. Trump on Sep. 6... to vehemently Trump's accusations that Venezuela is a major drug exporter and plea for U.S.-Venezuela talks to defuse tensions.
President Maduro wrote President Trump on September 6 to dispute accusations that Venezuela is a major drug exporter and request talks aimed at reducing tensions.
Open source reportTarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center
Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek Saab opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelans deported from the United States were tortured at El Salvador’s CECOT prison before being repatriated in a prisoner exchange.
Open source reportIran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities... but failed to gain much traction.
According to The New York Times, a claim that Iran sought BRICS condemnation of U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities but gained limited support: Russia criticized Washington, China called for restraint and Brazil did not join the criticism.
Open source reportVenezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week... it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec.
Venezuela opened the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas, built by Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport and intended for operation by state-owned Rostec.
Open source reportSenior officials from BRICS countries... met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin -... sent representatives in their stead.
Senior BRICS officials met in Brazil on July 6–7 and that six national leaders, including Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, sent representatives instead of attending.
Open source reportMaduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence.
Attorney General Tarek Saab called Bukele’s proposal “cynical,” while some Venezuelan opposition figures welcomed it and María Corina Machado had not commented.
Open source reportVenezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown.
Venezuela rejected a proposal to exchange 252 Venezuelans deported from the United States and jailed in El Salvador for 252 political prisoners held in Venezuela.
Open source reportthe U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend.
Deportation flights resumed after the United States reached arrangements with Venezuela and Honduras over the preceding weekend.
Open source reportRystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them.
According to Rystad Energy, the judgment that tariff exposure would encourage China, the United States, Spain, and India to seek alternative oil supplies and that replacement should be relatively easy because Venezuelan oil represents a limited share of their imports.
Open source reportannounced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly.
Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, including indirect purchasers.
Open source reportPres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S.
President Trump accused President Nicolás Maduro’s government of deliberately sending criminals; Tren de Aragua members to the United States.
Open source reportThe EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize... to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.
The European Parliament awarded the Sakharov Prize to María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia and reaffirmed support for Venezuela’s opposition.
Open source reportVenezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado denied President Nicolás Maduro’s claim that she had fled to Spain. She said she remained in Venezuela while concealing her location from authorities seeking her arrest; The allegations against her as politically motivated.
Open source reportThose that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far.
“Operation Knock Knock” is a government campaign targeting people who attended opposition demonstrations or posted opposition content online; thousands have been arrested.
Open source reportOpposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado vowed to continue her political struggle from Venezuela while former presidential candidate Edmundo González supports the opposition from exile in Spain. Election observers fled to Colombia after questioning the July election results.
Open source report“Everyone knows that [opposition candidate] Edmundo González is the president-elect.”
Opposition leader María Corina Machado declared Edmundo González president-elect and called on the United States to do more to punish President Nicolás Maduro. A State Department spokesperson said Washington was considering options to impose consequences for Maduro’s governance.
Open source reportWith Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen.
That repression will worsen following Diosdado Cabello’s reported appointment is interior, justice and peace minister, citing his previous call to imprison María Corina Machado and Edmundo González.
Open source reportPerkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week.
Venezuelan security forces arrested Perkins Rocha, described as opposition leader María Corina Machado’s lawyer and confidant.
Open source reportDelpino... told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country."
National Electoral Council member Juan Carlos Delpino told The New York Times that the council had received no evidence showing Nicolás Maduro won a majority; the institution had failed the country.
Open source reportMaduro and the CNE have ignored much more strongly-worded critiques than that, so the EU's diplomatic comments are unlikely to change their thinking.
The EU’s diplomatic response is unlikely to change the thinking of Nicolás Maduro or Venezuela’s National Electoral Council.
Open source reportThe EU issued a gently-worded condemnation of Pres. Maduro's election theft, calling on Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) to release official voting records (or actas), and pointing out that - given currently publicly-available actas - "Edmundo González Urrutia would appear to be the winner of the presidential election by a significant majority."
The EU asked Venezuela’s National Electoral Council to publish official voting records; currently available records appeared to show Edmundo González Urrutia winning the presidential election by a significant majority.
Open source reportall 10 parties in the main opposition coalition aligned behind a relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González, as their candidate.
All 10 parties in the main opposition coalition backed former diplomat Edmundo González for the July presidential election after María Corina Machado remained barred from running.
Open source reportThe license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election.
The license had been conditioned on free and fair elections; President Nicolás Maduro violated that commitment by suppressing the opposition before the July election.
Open source reportQuiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning.
Talks over extending temporary sanctions relief failed and the United States allowed a six-month Venezuelan oil-sales license to expire.
Open source reportNYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
An assessment that President Daniel Noboa may have expected the arrest to improve his approval ratings before the following year’s election.
Open source reportEcuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador.
Ecuadorian authorities entered Mexico’s embassy to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, prompting Mexico to cut diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
Open source report