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Afghanistan-Pakistan border

2 developments across 1 briefing for this place.

2Developments
1Source reports
2026-03-09First seen
2026-03-09Last seen
Evidence mix2 developments
Erik’s assessment1Developing1
Countries
Afghanistan, Pakistan
Categories
Active conflict

Latest linked intelligence

Neither side is currently prepared for peace but that both lack the capacity to afford a full-scale war, making a prolonged lower-level conflict more likely.

Assessment development · updated through

Latest directly linked development
Afghanistan-Pakistan borderErik’s assessment

Continued lower-intensity Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict

Neither side is currently prepared for peace but that both lack the capacity to afford a full-scale war, making a prolonged lower-level conflict more likely.

Open source report

Chronology

Development timeline

  1. Continued lower-intensity Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict

    Erik’s assessmentActive conflictAfghanistan-Pakistan border

    This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war.

    Neither side is currently prepared for peace but that both lack the capacity to afford a full-scale war, making a prolonged lower-level conflict more likely.

    Open source report

  2. Renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan cross-border fighting

    DevelopingActive conflictAfghanistan-Pakistan border

    Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked."

    Pakistan attacked five Afghan border provinces. According to Afghanistan’s defense minister, a threat to attack Islamabad if Kabul is attacked; renewed cross-border violence followed the collapse of an earlier ceasefire.

    Open source report