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10 developments across 5 briefings for this country.
Latest linked intelligence
Analysts fear the Yemen conflict could widen, with the Houthis attacking Gulf countries from the south while Iran applies pressure from the east. Its suggestion about the Saudi crown prince’s motive is explicitly speculative.
Assessment development · updated through
Analysts fear the Yemen conflict could widen, with the Houthis attacking Gulf countries from the south while Iran applies pressure from the east. Its suggestion about the Saudi crown prince’s motive is explicitly speculative.
Open source reportChronology
Analysts worry about the renewed conflict in southern Arabia spilling over into a broader regional conflict, with the Houthis on Iran's side targeting Gulf countries from the south while Iran lashes out at them from the east.
Analysts fear the Yemen conflict could widen, with the Houthis attacking Gulf countries from the south while Iran applies pressure from the east. Its suggestion about the Saudi crown prince’s motive is explicitly speculative.
Open source reportThe decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases... including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and regional states hosting U.S. bases. Most missiles were intercepted but alleges that some caused damage and casualties, including three U.S. service members killed.
Open source reportCOMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz
Aluminum at $2,371 per ton, antimony at $28,950 per ton, cobalt at $33,700 per ton, copper at $8,732 per ton, gold at $3,006 per troy ounce, lead at $1,870 per ton, Nymex natural gas at $3.64 per MMBtu, Nymex WTI crude at $60.94 per barrel and zinc at $2,614 per ton.
Open source reportThe Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. Vietnam (46%) offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor.
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru planned to visit the White House to seek relief from a 24% tariff and that Vietnam offered to remove tariffs on U.S. goods if Washington reciprocated.
Open source reportSo far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. The European Union (20%) is considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially
China and Canada imposed retaliatory levies, while the European Union was considering limited retaliation alongside reciprocal tariff removal. Most other targeted governments were seeking negotiations or concessions rather than immediate retaliation.
Open source reportNatural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel
Aluminum at $2,706 per ton, antimony at $25,450 per ton, cobalt at $26,960 per ton, copper at $9,614 per ton, gold at $2,901 per troy ounce, lead at $2,019 per ton, zinc at $2,887 per ton and WTI crude at $67.06 per barrel. It placed Nymex natural gas at $4.60 per MMBtu and attributed a three-year high to supply constraints and cold weather.
Open source reportChina, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers.
China, Iran and Russia would hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, with Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa and the UAE among the expected observers.
Open source reportThe sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives.
Higher shipping rates are indicating that traders temporarily shifted away from sanctioned vessels, increasing demand for alternatives, but grey and black markets will develop workarounds.
Open source reportThe current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway.
Current sanctions cover about 35% of roughly 670 tankers believed to transport sanctioned Russian, Venezuelan or Iranian oil.
Open source reportCurrent VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday.
New U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil and associated tankers caused very large crude carrier rates from the Middle East to China to rise 39% since the preceding Friday.
Open source report