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Former President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were sentenced to 30 years for ordering 2024 drone flights into North Korea. Prosecutors linked the flights to an effort to provoke Pyongyang and justify martial law, and that Yoon is appealing.
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Former President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were sentenced to 30 years for ordering 2024 drone flights into North Korea. Prosecutors linked the flights to an effort to provoke Pyongyang and justify martial law, and that Yoon is appealing.
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Yoon Suk Yeol dossier
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Presidential compound
North Korea launched another wave of trash balloons, some of which landed at the compound housing President Yoon Suk Yeol’s offices. South Korean authorities found no hazardous material.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 12 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump threatened to carry out strikes on Iran for a third straight night before abruptly calling them off with an announcement that a peace deal is "in pretty final shape" and could be signed as soon as this weekend. •Iran's state media contradicted Trump's claim and reported that "nothing is finalized" yet, but Iranian officials confirmed to Al Jazeera off the record that Iran's leaders are indeed reviewing a memorandum of understanding they received from U.S. negotiators. •Like Trump, Iran continued to make public threats while working towards a peace deal behind the scenes. State media broadcast the military's threats to target regional assets linked to Elon Musk and his companies in revenge for the key role his Starlink internet service has played in U.S. military operations against Iran. •Separately, the World Bank downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%, blaming energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Likewise, the UK reported its first monthly economic contraction since August, citing the effect of the war on output. UK •UK defence minister John Healey unexpectedly resigned yesterday, citing Prime Minister Starmer's failure to adequately invest in the military: "I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make the country less safe." SWITZERLAND •Switzerland is putting a unique question to a vote on Sunday, with a referendum on whether to enact a population cap. •If passed, the measure would oblige the government to act - e.g. by sharpening asylum and family unification rules or ending free movement across borders with the European Union - once the country's population reaches 10 million (vs. 9.1 million today). •Polling suggests Swiss voters are roughly split on the idea, with slightly more against it than for it. But experts say polls often misjudge support for immigration-related proposals. SOUTH KOREA •Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were each sentenced to 30 years in prison for ordering provocative drone flights into North Korea in 2024. Prosecutors argued that Yoon ordered the incursions to stir trouble with Pyongyang and justify his declaration of martial law. •Yoon is already jailed on other charges including rebellion, for which prosecutors had sought the death penalty. Yoon is appealing his convictions. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban enforcers detained at least 30 women in Herat over alleged "noncompliance" with its strict female dress rules. A local witness told Human Rights Watch that "All the women were wearing hijabs, but the style did not meet their [the police’s] preferences." •The arrests sparked protests that security forces met with excessive force, killing a child and beating up dozens of demonstrators.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Dec Russia •Finland's coast guard seized an oil tanker that it says is part of Russia's "shadow fleet" of vessels evading sanctions. Police claim the vessel was involved in another incident of "aggravated vandalism" that severed the Estlink 2 undersea cable between Finland and Estonia (and damaged four other subsea cables). Mozambique •Cautious reports from Mozambique suggest that post-election violence has escalated sharply since Monday, when the country's top court upheld the ruling Frelimo party's win - and opposition runner-up Venancio Mondlane urged his supporters to protest the ruling. •Much of the latest violence occurred during the prison riots reported yesterday, but separate incidents around the country added to the week's death toll - which one NGO estimated at 125. •Zimbabwe's Pres Mnangagwa - who currently chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC) - said the SADC is standing by to help Mozambique resolve its turmoil...if Frelimo is willing to engage in talks. So far Frelimo hasn't even acknowledged that there's anything to discuss with the opposition. DRC •Following DRC's lawsuit accusing Apple subsidiaries of using conflict minerals from DRC, Apple said it would stop buying minerals that can be traced back to DRC and Rwanda. •The tricky thing about the minerals in question - tantalum, tungsten, and tin - is that supplies from all over the world get smelted together (often in China) before being sold to intermediaries and parts suppliers, so by the time a mineral-containing product gets to Apple, it's impossible to tell whether the mineral content came from DRC or anywhere else. I.e., short of capturing the entire supply chain (which Apple doesn't do), there's no way Apple can guarantee its minerals aren't coming from DRC. Somalia •Al Shabaab issued a statement eulogizing Mohamed Mire, a senior leader who served in a quasi-interior minister capacity. Shabaab's statement claimed Mire was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Lower Shabelle on Tuesday night, and that's probably correct - though the Pentagon hasn't yet confirmed whether it carried out strikes there this week. Other News •South Korea's parliament voted to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo for allegedly stalling the process of impeaching his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol. That throws the executive branch back into disarray, with no clear leader to guide through the crisis. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will likely become acting president now.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Dec China •China responded to a new U.S. ban on exporting certain chip technology to China by announcing its own new ban on exports of select rare minerals - including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard minerals (e.g., tungsten) - to the U.S. •This is a significant escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, but it wasn't a complete surprise: China has been slowly introducing a legal framework for such a ban over the past year-ish, and recently experimented with export restrictions on some of affected minerals. •It also won't have a drastic effect on U.S. supply chains: U.S. manufacturers already buy more semi-finished goods than raw materials and have begun to develop alternate sources of the few raw materials still imported from China. South Korea •South Korea's deeply unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to ram through political gridlock by imposing martial law and banning "all political activities" late last night. •The public and legislature weren't having it, though: amidst widespread peaceful demonstrations against Yoon's decree, the National Assembly voted unanimously - 190 to 0 - to rescind it. Opposition lawmakers are now seeking Yoon's impeachment for treason. Ukraine •NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start." NATO's members are suffering donor fatigue, and many have slowed their support for Ukraine. •Separately, a new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine - acts that would constitute war crimes. •These aren't new allegations; rather, they buttress the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) case against Putin and his commissioner for children, Maria Lvova-Belova, on related charges. [Russia isn't a member of the ICC and maintains that the adoptions are noble, patriotic gestures to help abandoned Ukrainian children - not war crimes.] Syria •Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to send Africa Corps (ex-Wagner Group) mercenaries to Syria to bolster Pres. Assad's counteroffensive against Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This has not yet been confirmed or corroborated. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's Taliban government announced a new ban on women studying medicine and midwifery - two of the few remaining fields that were still open to female students. •One of the reasons the medical education loophole remained open to women when they were banned from most other education was that the Taliban also prohibits female patients in some provinces from being treated by male doctors. •Under the new ban, women who are already doctors will probably be allowed to continue practicing, but their ranks will dwindle without a pipeline of new female students to replace those who retire. Venezuela •Eyeing Pres. Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they don't help reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and drug precursors to the U.S., Pres. Maduro proposed a different version of a similar bargain: he said that if the U.S. lifts its sanctions on Venezuela, then "in less than a year, not a single immigrant will go to the U.S." •Maduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect. [As with Maduro's election tallies, his official economic statistics tell a different story that lacks numerical support and begs belief.]
Open source reportOff Leash Update 25 July Israel •Israeli PM Netanyahu went ahead with a planned visit to the U.S., despite (or perhaps because of) news that Pres. Biden has bowed out of the November election. •Some analysts guessed Bibi would capitalize on Biden's weakened authority to make his pleas for continued U.S. support directly to Congress - which is bitterly divided on the issue. •Netanyahu probably also sought to cozy up to Biden's presumptive replacement on the Democratic ticket, VP Harris, but Harris snubbed his Congressional address to hit the campaign trail and speak at a sorority event instead. However, she'll still meet with him (and Pres. Biden) privately at the White House later this week. •Netanyahu delayed the departure of an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar until after his trip to Washington. North Korea •North Korea launched another fleet of trash balloons over the border, and some landed in the compound housing Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's offices for the first time. •South Korean authorities didn't find anything hazardous or contaminating in the balloons' "payload" - just obnoxious trash sent in response to the propaganda leaflets ("political trash," in Pyongyang's view) that defectors from the North have been floating over the border. Russia •French police arrested a Russian chef suspected of links to the Russian security services on unspecified charges related to a "large-scale" plan to destabilize the Olympic Games that start this week. •It's not clear specifically what this Russian chef was cooking up, but French authorities clarified that the charges weren't related to terrorism. Some media outlets suggested he may have been part of anticipated Russian attempts to create false scares with AI-generated bomb warnings at the Olympics. Afghanistan •Chinese engineers and Taliban officials commemorated a groundbreaking on the long-delayed Aynak Copper Project southwest of Kabul. The Taliban Deputy PM for Economic Affairs said he hoped the project would make up for 16+ years of delays due to war and incompetence with "speedy work" - something the Taliban is not known for. •Short on good news stories, the Taliban also re-inaugurated the 25-km road leading to Aynak that was already officially opened about a year ago. Sudan •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan's warring parties to peace talks in Switzerland next month, and RSF leader Hemedti issued a statement accepting the invitation. His foe, Gen. Al-Burhan, hasn't responded to the invitation yet. Strategic Minerals •Tesla reported a 45% decline in net income for the second quarter - an even worse outcome than pessimistic analysts had predicted. Tesla has been losing its dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) market to cheaper rivals; additionally, demand for EVs has dropped as subsidy programs ended. •Separately, the UK's royals made a record profit last year, thanks largely to the Crown Estate's investment in offshore wind farms. The UK gets 17% of its electricity from offshore wind.
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