Yale University

China tightens mineral exports as political and security pressures widen across six regions

Off Leash update 4 Dec China •China responded to a new U.S. ban on exporting certain chip technology to China by announcing its own new ban on exports of select rare minerals - including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard minerals (e.g., tungsten) - to the U.S. •This is a significant escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, but it wasn't a complete surprise: China has been slowly introducing a legal framework for such a ban over the past year-ish, and recently experimented with export restrictions on some of affected minerals. •It also won't have a drastic effect on U.S. supply chains: U.S. manufacturers already buy more semi-finished goods than raw materials and have begun to develop alternate sources of the few raw materials still imported from China. South Korea •South Korea's deeply unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to ram through political gridlock by imposing martial law and banning "all political activities" late last night. •The public and legislature weren't having it, though: amidst widespread peaceful demonstrations against Yoon's decree, the National Assembly voted unanimously - 190 to 0 - to rescind it. Opposition lawmakers are now seeking Yoon's impeachment for treason. Ukraine •NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start." NATO's members are suffering donor fatigue, and many have slowed their support for Ukraine. •Separately, a new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine - acts that would constitute war crimes. •These aren't new allegations; rather, they buttress the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) case against Putin and his commissioner for children, Maria Lvova-Belova, on related charges. [Russia isn't a member of the ICC and maintains that the adoptions are noble, patriotic gestures to help abandoned Ukrainian children - not war crimes.] Syria •Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to send Africa Corps (ex-Wagner Group) mercenaries to Syria to bolster Pres. Assad's counteroffensive against Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This has not yet been confirmed or corroborated. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's Taliban government announced a new ban on women studying medicine and midwifery - two of the few remaining fields that were still open to female students. •One of the reasons the medical education loophole remained open to women when they were banned from most other education was that the Taliban also prohibits female patients in some provinces from being treated by male doctors. •Under the new ban, women who are already doctors will probably be allowed to continue practicing, but their ranks will dwindle without a pipeline of new female students to replace those who retire. Venezuela •Eyeing Pres. Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they don't help reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and drug precursors to the U.S., Pres. Maduro proposed a different version of a similar bargain: he said that if the U.S. lifts its sanctions on Venezuela, then "in less than a year, not a single immigrant will go to the U.S." •Maduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect. [As with Maduro's election tallies, his official economic statistics tell a different story that lacks numerical support and begs belief.]