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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, their first in-person meeting since the referenced war began. They had spoken by telephone three times since February 28.
Unverified development · updated through
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, their first in-person meeting since the referenced war began. They had spoken by telephone three times since February 28.
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Wang Yi dossier
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Beijing
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, their first in-person meeting since the referenced war began. They had spoken by telephone three times since February 28.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 30 July Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,289/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,100/ton •Cobalt: $26,625/ton •Copper: $9,111/ton •Gold: $2,374/toz •Lead: $2,068/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.86/barrel •Zinc: $2,669/ton Venezuela •Pres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González. •This time, Maduro claimed just 51.2% of the vote - just enough to avoid a runoff, but (Maduro probably hopes) not egregiously incredible enough to spark a revolution. •Many would-be observers boycotted the poll because Maduro tainted it from the start by bullying the opposition ( @MariaCorinaYA ) out of a fair race. And the few observers who participated cited widespread irregularities. •Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places. Israel •On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket killed at least 12 kids and teens on a soccer (football) field in the Golan Heights, a sliver of Syria that Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed in 1981. •Israel's security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response - likely involving counterstrikes in Lebanon. •One such counterstrike already took place: an Israeli drone strike killed two people and wounded three - including a child - in the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. China •SecState Blinken criticized China's "escalating" and "unlawful actions" in the South China Sea during a trip to Laos - where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. •Blinken will also visit Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in an effort to befriend Southeast Asian countries that are feeling threatened by an increasingly bellicose China. North Korea •Saturday was North Korea's Victory Day - commemorating the 70th anniversary of the truce that paused (but didn't end) the Korean War. •Kim Jong Un invited a special guest for the occasion: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. His presence at the Victory Day festivities serves as a reminder of the increasingly close ties between Russia and North Korea, which were further solidified by Pres. Putin's second visit to the Hermit Kingdom last month. Sahel •Tuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria and - according to the Tuaregs - "decisively obliterated these enemy columns" over three days of fighting. •The Tuareg have been fighting for independence since 2012, but they started this latest round of fighting in response to recent military offensives that recaptured formerly rebel-held territory. •The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive. •The Malian army says two soldiers died and also acknowledged losing a helicopter in another nearby rebel stronghold, but said nothing about Wagner involvement in the fighting...officially, Wagner personnel are only in Mali to train local troops and shouldn't be fighting alongside their "trainees." Libya •Libya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000. Several were ordered to repay funds obtained through "illicit means," suggesting that the court blamed their misdeeds (at least in part) on corruption. Other News •French authorities are blaming the far-left for last week's organized attacks on French train lines. Today they arrested a far-left activist in Normandy in connection with the incidents. •Meanwhile, a new coordinated infrastructure attack affected fiberoptic telecom networks throughout France (though Paris was not affected).
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