Off Leash Intel · loading
5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The administration is considering military strikes in Mali against Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin militants.
Unverified development · updated through
The administration is considering military strikes in Mali against Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin militants.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Trump administration dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Donbas
Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration was demanding Ukraine relinquish parts of the Donbas still under Kyiv's control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 25 August 2026 IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a package of new punitive measures against Iran as part of what he dubbed Operation Economic Outcast, but Bessent himself acknowledged that the new penalties were more of a "warning shot" than the "economic D-Day" he'd threatened to unleash on Iran. •The measures Bessent announced are indeed minor. His Treasury Department expanded its ability to punish foreign companies helping five specific sectors of Iran's economy: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. It also imposed sanctions on over 60 individuals and entities linked to Iran's missile and nuclear programs who were somehow not already blacklisted. And it plans to sanction more entities - including an unspecified large financial institution - by the end of this week. •But the new package stopped far short of imposing secondary sanctions on Iran's trading partners. Instead of penalizing other countries for trading with Iran, Bessent said the Trump administration plans to adopt a gentler approach of simply asking world leaders to kindly "cease their interactions with Iran." •That soft pressure will work with some nations - like the UAE, which announced a total trade embargo on Iran last week. But Iran's largest trading partner, China, has already signalled that it has no interest in helping the U.S. cripple Iran's economy. •Some question whether any level of economic pain will force the Iranian regime's hardliners to negotiate after decades of sanctions failed to change them. Many of them probably still agree with what their founding Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, said back in Sep. 1979: "No wise person can imagine that we sacrificed our blood so that melons would become cheap! [That] we gave our youth so that housing would become affordable … It is for Islam that a person can give up his life. Our saints also gave up their lives for Islam, not for economics. Economics is not worthy of this." •Meanwhile, Pakistani officials said Field Marshal Munir's recent trip to Tehran had made "significant progress" towards ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. UKRAINE •UK Prime Minister Burnham is using his first foreign trip since taking office to offer bold support for Ukraine. He announced that the UK has delivered technical blueprints for Ukraine to use to build Scalp missile components, and is reportedly planning to visit the U.S. next month to rally Washington's support for Kyiv. •Russia isn't happy. A Kremlin spokesman accused Burnham and Britain of being "hell bent on pouring oil on a fire and plotting to prevent any kind of peace process," HAITI •Gang members attacked a church in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Kenscoff late Sunday, killing at least 47 of the displaced people who had taken refuge from exactly this kind of gang violence. •Survivors largely blamed the UN run Gang Suppression Force for failing to adequately protect civilians or even build a base in the area despite warning signs. The government belatedly pledged to reinforce security. SUDAN •During a UN Security Council meeting, U.S. envoy Massoud Boulos proposed expanding the arms embargo on Sudan's Darfur region to cover the entire country, with the aim of forcing the government and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to negotiate an end to the civil war they've been fighting for four years. •The current embargo on Darfur has been in effect since July 2004, but both the army and the RSF continue to import weapons from abroad to devastate Darfur. Boulos seems to think that a nationwide embargo would be easier to enforce, and he's probably right. •However, an expanded embargo must first pass a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote, and Russia - which has veto power over UNSC votes - has already signalled it has misgivings about a nationwide embargo. [Specifically, the Kremlin voiced concern that an expanded ban would hurt the army more than the RSF.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today, North Korea celebrates Victory Day - a commemoration of the Korean War armistice that was neither a victory nor a real end to the war (which is technically still ongoing). •Peru's president-elect, conservative Keiko Fujimori, takes office tomorrow, following her slim victory over leftist Roberto Sánchez in the June 7 runoff. Like other modern conservative leaders in Latin America, Fujimori has pledged to effect market-friendly reforms and crack down on crime. •The Commonwealth Games close on Sunday in Glasgow. •Delegates to OPEC+ - a cartel of oil-producing nations - meet Sunday to set output targets for September. Analysts expect them to agree to another modest production increase of about 180,000 barrels per day - about the same added in each of the past three months. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,160/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,315/ton •Bitcoin: $65,200 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,645/ton •Ethereum: $1,964 •Gold: $4,091/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $84.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,592/ton IRAN •The Pentagon signaled a pause in strikes on Iran, ending two weeks of nightly strikes. •The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East - CENTCOM Commander Adm. Bradley Cooper - reportedly advocated the pause, reasoning that the current campaign had succeeded in taking out 80% of CENTCOM's high-priority targets and had reached the limit of its effectiveness against the remaining 20%, which are harder to hit. •Other U.S. military advisors - including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine - backed the pause for a more concerning reason. They worry that Iran's retaliatory fire has depleted the U.S.'s regional inventory of Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, leaving U.S. military sites and other targets in Gulf countries vulnerable to incoming strikes - like the ballistic missile that slipped through to kill three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last week. •Iran reciprocated and announced that it, too, would pause strikes. UKRAINE •Ukraine irked Iran on Saturday when it struck "vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran" in the Caspian Sea. •Iran accused Ukraine of acting "at Israel's behest," but the Caspian strikes also served Kyiv's interests: the vessels they targeted were reportedly transporting Iranian-made drones to Russia to be used against Ukraine. [Iran's Foreign Ministry unconvincingly denied that charge, saying Iran "has never intervened in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine."] YEMEN •Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels exchanged more fire over the weekend. •Saudi targeted Houthi military sites in Hodeida in return for Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea, and the Houthis retaliated with missile strikes that damaged a Saudi oil refinery near Jizan. •The Houthis also tried to target a second Saudi oil refinery near Yanbu, but Greek operators used a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system to intercept at least two Houthi missiles. INDIA •India's Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) won its feud with scandal-plagued education minister Dharmendra Pradhan, and Pradhan tendered his resignation. •Pradhan was one of Prime Minister Modi's most loyal deputies, so his resignation is a blow to Modi, who styles himself as a strongman whose ministerial choices are unaccountable to public approval. Pradhan is only the second Modi-appointed minister to resign - despite Modi's best efforts to insulate him from the fallout from scandals that happened on his watch. •CJP "members" and supporters were jubilant to see their street protests effect change, and many are now motivated to turn their sights on other targets in Modi's government that are overdue for reform. For starters, they want deeper changes to India's broken exam system and are demanding that the government drop the criminal cases it opened against some of them during protests. MALI •The Trump administration is reportedly considering carrying out military strikes against Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants in Mali. •U.S. intervention against JNIM would serve a secondary purpose beyond doing Mali's feckless military a favor by hobbling an adversary that regularly outfoxes them. If successful, it would show that the U.S. can succeed where the junta's hired Russian guns have failed, and thereby cast the Russians as ineffective security partners - not only in Mali, but in other African countries that work with Russia's Africa Corps. •One U.S. official alluded to this ulterior motive in an unattributed interview with the Washington Post: "We hope that other African nations take note of Russia’s terrible performance in combating terrorism." SUDAN •Sudan's military boasted that it had recaptured the Al Sadarat highway from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over the weekend. •Al Sadarat is a key link between the government-controlled capital of Khartoum and the North Kordofan regional capital of el Obeid, which is under an RSF siege and looks likely to be the prize in the next major battle between the RSF and the military. Control of Al Sadarat will allow the military reopen a much faster supply route that it can use to equip its troops in the fight for el Obeid.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 July 2026 NICARAGUA •Nicaragua's leftist president, Daniel Ortega, announced plans to officially abolish elections rather than bother to hold another sham poll - like the one he oversaw in 2021 - when elections are due next year. •Instead, Ortega will tighten his authoritarian grip on Nicaraguan politics and further consolidate power for himself and his co-president, Rosario Murillo - a poet whose main qualification to hold office is being married to Ortega. •The Trump administration has mostly turned a blind eye to Ortega's increasingly blatant power grabs, despite Ortega's leftist politics and friendliness with China. Abolishing elections could give the U.S. a reason to treat Nicaragua to the same sort of pressure campaigns it's mounting on Cuba and Venezuela. Once again proof that you can vote in socialism but have to shoot your way out. CHINA •Chinese and Filipino sailors fought a brief sea battle worthy of a Viking war painting near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal yesterday, striking each other with oars and batons and leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. •As usual, both sides claimed the other provoked the skirmish and summoned the other side's ambassador for a dressing down. •The timing is awkward this time, since the incident will certainly become a hot topic at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit that started today. China, the Philippines, the U.S., and Australia are all sending their top diplomats, and the U.S. and Australia have already issued statements supporting the Philippines' side and condemning China as the aggressor. YEMEN •Encouraged by Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian ships - or ships carrying Saudi exports - transiting through Bab al Mandeb. •The Houthis are inaccurately portraying their blockade as a meaningful one that will choke off Saudi's last remaining export route while Iran blocks Saudi exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that depiction is intended for the Houthi's domestic audience, who don't know that Saudi can evade the blockade by exporting from its western ports north through the Suez Canal. UK •Andy Burnham - the UK's new prime minister, as of yesterday - promptly named his cabinet. •Burnham surprised analysts by choosing John Healey - who resigned as Sir Kier Starmer's defence minister last month after complaining about insufficient defence spending - as the new chancellor of the exchequer. Healey will now be responsible for tough spending choices like the defence cuts he railed against. INDIA •Youth-led protests rocked Delhi yesterday, and police responded forcefully, injuring at least 180 demonstrators. The movement - playfully dubbed the Cockroach Janta Party - demands education reform, including the resignation of India's education minister following exam scandals that happened on his watch. TRADE •Pres. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on symbolic Canadian imports like hockey equipment and down jackets, but gave Canada 30 days to right the perceived wrongs that sparked Trump's ire. In particular, Trump wants the eight of 10 Canadian provinces that banned imports of U.S.-made alcohol last year to repeal their bans. •Analysts suggest Trump's new tariff threat is a tactic to force Canada into making concessions early so it has less room to negotiate when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 March IRAN •Pres. Trump demanded that Iran's regime reconsider the 15-point peace proposal it rejected this week, and warned that if they don't then "we'll just keep blowing them out of the water." •Trump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum. •Meanwhile, Israel took a more direct approach and assassinated Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval commander who led Iran's blockade and boasted about its success on X. •Iran has reportedly started charging some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening. RUSSIA •Citing Western intelligence, The Financial Times reported that Russia is "close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran." The drones are thought to be upgraded versions of the Shahed-136s Iran sent to Russia in 2022 with improved navigation systems and a new name: Geran-2. •The Kremlin denounced reports that it's arming Iran as "false information," which means it's probably true information. The NYT reported that "Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine." •Separately, Pres. Putin assembled a group of oligarchs yesterday to ask them to donate part of their largesse to help fund the war effort. At least two quickly agreed. •It was the first time Putin has directly asked Russian tycoons for help, but not the first time their companies have been shaken down to fill the war chest: some of them paid a 10% one-time windfall tax in 2023, and VAT went up by 2% (to 22%) in January. But those measures alone will only raise about one trillion rubles; Putin's war cost 13 trillion rubles last year alone. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. •Many analysts would agree with Zelensky's assessment that Trump "still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side." •Ukraine ceding control of that strip of the Donbas was one of Russia's firm conditions for ending the war, so by trading U.S. security guarantees for it, Trump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Immediately after their temporary Eid ceasefire ended, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed attacks. Pakistani strikes killed two in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan vowed an "appropriate response." Few expected the brief truce to last beyond the holiday period.
Open source report