Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The Saudi-led coalition ordered Southern Transitional Council separatists to leave recently captured areas of Hadramaut and threatened immediate action. Apparent Saudi strikes on STC-linked positions, while noting that Saudi officials declined to comment.
Unverified development · updated through
The Saudi-led coalition ordered Southern Transitional Council separatists to leave recently captured areas of Hadramaut and threatened immediate action. Apparent Saudi strikes on STC-linked positions, while noting that Saudi officials declined to comment.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Southern Transitional Council dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Southern Yemen, including Aden and Hadramout
The UAE-backed STC announced that it had captured Hadramout and all eight southern governorates, including Aden. The claim credible but acknowledges that it is unconfirmed and that Saudi-backed resistance may continue.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 DEC GAZA •Former senior Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan told the NYT that Hamas is "still standing" despite its two-year war with Israel. •Ben Hanan cited official estimates that Hamas still has around 20,000 active fighters after quickly replacing its casualties. •Hamas also appears to be reasserting its role in policing Gaza - though its senior officials insist they'll be willing and ready to cede power to an appointed transitional government once one is formed. DRC •Just days after signing a document in the White House Oval Office reaffirming a U.S.-brokered peace deal with the DRC, Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's proxy M23 invaded further into DRC territory in direct defiance of President Trump's peace efforts. •Local reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border. •Analysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers. •Burundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. It claims to be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.” YEMEN •The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden. •The STC's claim is credible but unconfirmed, and Saudi Arabia may still mount some resistance in defense of the government it was backing in Aden. •STC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
Open source report