6 direct mentions across 6 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
6Linked events
6Source reports
2024-04-01First seen
2025-10-29Last seen
Evidence mix6 developments
Unverified6
Direct mentions
6
Countries
Israel, Palestine
Categories
Active conflict, Terrorism
Latest linked intelligence
Israel carried out an airstrike targeting Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants, describing it as Israel’s first airstrike in the West Bank since February.
Unverified development · updated through
Latest directly linked development
West BankUnverified
Israel conducts first West Bank airstrike since February
Israel carried out an airstrike targeting Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants, describing it as Israel’s first airstrike in the West Bank since February.
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad dossier
Palestinian Islamic Jihad linked geography
6 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Source archive
0:00Approximate scope
Al-Shifa Hospital and Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip
Israel ends al-Shifa operation and strikes Al Aqsa Hospital courtyard
Israel ended a two-week operation around al-Shifa Hospital, which Israel alleges Hamas used as an operating base. Israeli strikes against Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Al Aqsa Hospital’s courtyard, claiming four militants were killed and seven journalists injured.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Mention timeline
Gaza ceasefire strained as security operations intensify in Brazil and the eastern Pacific
Off Leash update 29 October
GAZA AND THE WEST BANK
•Israel accused Hamas of violating their ceasefire agreement by failing to return hostage remains as quickly as possible and by firing on Israeli forces, reportedly killing one reservist.
•Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered "forceful strikes" that killed 104 Gazans in retaliation.
•Hamas denied firing at Israeli troops and said it was committed to keeping the ceasefire, but threatened to delay the next return of hostage remains in response to what it deemed violations by Israel.
•Pres. Trump and Vice Pres. Vance both expressed confidence that Trump's ceasefire will hold - despite what Vance called "little skirmishes here and there" - and Israel declared the ceasefire back on at 10 am local time today.
•Separately, Israel also carried out its first airstrike on the West Bank since February yesterday, targeting Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants over PIJ's alliance with Hamas.
JAMAICA
•Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as the strongest storm the island nation has ever recorded, but weakened to a Category 3 storm before reaching Cuba early today.
•Climatologists say the storm strengthened ahead of its Jamaica landfall because it drew heat energy from water temperatures 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the seasonal average.
BRAZIL
•Brazilian police mounted a massive, 2,500-officer operation against the Comando Vermelho (Red Command) drug cartel in Rio de Janeiro, killing at least 60 alleged criminals in the ensuing firefight.
•Rio is hastily trying to clean up crime before its guests arrive for the COP30 climate conference, which starts Nov. 10.
•Police carried out similar anti-gang operations ahead of other major events in Rio - like the 2016 Olympics, the 2024 G20 summit, and July's BRICS meetings - but this was by far their deadliest cleanup campaign yet.
•Rights groups criticized police for using heavy-handed tactics in their raids and called for an investigation, but police chiefs maintained that they needed to use overwhelming force against well-armed gangsters who chased them with weaponized drones.
CARTELS
•The U.S. military struck four more alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean yesterday, killing 14 and leaving one survivor (who was apparently rescued by the Mexican Navy).
•SecDef Hegseth wrote that all four struck boats "were known by our intelligence apparatus, transiting along known narco-trafficking routes, and carrying narcotics" - but that won't be good enough proof for critics of the ongoing anti-cartel operations, who point out that the extrajudicial strikes are probably illegal.
target of the West Bank airstrike1 direct event link
Post-Assad Syria, Gaza diplomacy and pressure on Pokrovsk
Off Leash update 13 Dec
Iran
The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria.
That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad.
Syria
Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.]
The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent.
Gaza
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month."
Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past."
However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position.
With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people.
Ukraine
Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts.
Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions."
Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time.
Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages.
China
Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet.
1/2
Militant organization whose leader was targeted in Nuseirat1 direct event link
Venezuela pressure, China-Africa pledges and active-war developments
Off Leash update 6 Sept
Venezuela
•Venezuela's opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gave an online press conference in which she told international journalists what they already knew: "Everyone knows that [opposition candidate] Edmundo González is the president-elect."
•Machado also called on the U.S. to "do much more" to punish Pres. Maduro for his false claim to the presidency.
•A State Department spokesman responded blandly: "We are considering a range of options to demonstrate to Maduro and his representatives that their misgovernance in Venezuela has consequences."
China
•During this week's Forum on China-Africa Co-operation, Pres. Xi promised African countries 360 billion yuan ($51 billion) in financing over the three years until the next triennial Forum.
•He also committed one billion yuan ($141 million) to training African armies, which is a small sliver of the $2 billion the Pentagon spends on its African operations - including AFRICOM as well as assistance and training programs.
•Xi hopes to present Chinese funding as an alternative to Western support. He told the African leaders gathered at the Beijing Forum: "the Western approach to [modernization] has inflicted immense sufferings on developing countries."
•Separately, China said it would stop allowing foreigners to adopt Chinese babies unless they're blood relatives or step relatives of the adoptee. With a declining birth rate, Beijing probably hopes to keep enough young'uns working in China to support an aging population.
Ukraine
•Speaking at an international audience in Vladivostock, Pres. Putin brushed off concerns about Ukraine's invasion of Kursk, saying Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine is its "first-priority goal."
•He chided Ukraine for sending "fairly large and well-trained units" into Kursk: "The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous and worry and to transfer troops from one sector to another and stop our offensive in key areas, primarily in the Donbas. Did it work or no? No." (The U.S. and Ukraine both said small numbers of Russian troops were transferred to Kursk - but it wasn't the large redeployment Ukraine hoped for).
•Separately, Ukraine accused Russia of executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as they sought to surrender in Donetsk. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office says it's investigating 54 such cases of Russian troops executing Ukrainian POWs over the course of the war.
Israel
•Israel ended its operation targeting Islamic Jihad militants in Jenin after nine days. It was one of the most significant recent Israeli operations in the West Bank.
•Israel said it targeted militants preparing attacks on Israeli civilians, and indeed, most (but not all) of the 21 Palestinians killed during the operation were claimed by Hamas, Fatah, or Islamic Jihad as fighters.
Sudan
•A UN-backed team in Sudan concluded that both sides - the Rapid Support Forces and the military - may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, and recommended an arms embargo and a UN peacekeeping force. The UAE has been supporting the Rapid Support Forces, and will object to UN peacekeeper scrutiny.
Electric Vehicles
•Volvo ditched its plans to produce only electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 amidst a slowdown in demand for EVs. Instead, it said only 10% or less of its cars would be "mild hybrids" by 2030 - but reiterated that "our future is electric."
•Volvo isn't the only EV maker scaling back its ambitions as the market for EV cools. Toyota also reduced its EV production target for 2030 by one third.
Palestinian armed organization targeted in Jenin1 direct event link
Gaza talks, Kursk operations and South China Sea collision
Off Leash update 20 August
Gaza
•SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages.
•However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them.
•Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north.
•Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold.
•Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night.
•The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries.
Ukraine
•Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!"
•Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement.
•Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand."
•Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk.
China
•Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision.
•The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea.
•After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again."
Afghanistan
•A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country.
•Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Palestinian militant organization involved in the Tel Aviv incident1 direct event link
Off Leash Update: Conflict Escalation and Political Uncertainty Across Multiple Regions
Off Leash update 12 June
Hezbollah
•An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel.
•The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border.
Gaza
•Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable."
•Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides.
•Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway.
•Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination."
Ukraine
•Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies.
•Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies.
•On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks.
Haiti
•Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government.
South Africa
•Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority.
•MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday.
•Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa.
Other News
•Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather.
•A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Hamas-aligned armed group supporting ceasefire engagement1 direct event link
Gaza operations, regional attacks and political shifts lead April 1 update
Off Leash Daily Update?:
NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary on Thursday. SecGen Stoltenberg will commemorate the occasion with a press conference in Brussels.
Kuwait votes in a general election on Thursday, and Slovakia votes in the second round of its presidential election on Saturday.
Commodity Prices
Aluminum: $2,337/ton
Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton
Cobalt: $28,550/ton
Copper: $8,867/ton
Gold: $2,233/toz
Lead: $2,055/ton
Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.76/MMbtu
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $83.17/barrel
Zinc: $2,439/ton
Gaza and Israel
Israel and Hamas resumed ceasefire talks in Cairo yesterday.
Then Israel announced an end to its two-week operation in and around al-Shifa hospital, which Israel says Hamas has been using as an operating base.
Israel carried out airstrikes on another militant group, Islamic Jihad, in the courtyard of another hospital, Al Aqsa in Deir al Balah. Those strikes reportedly injured seven journalists but killed four members of Islamic Jihad, according to the BBC.
Tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests against PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem yesterday. They want Netanyahu to resign over his handling of the war and hold fresh elections. The demonstrations are set to continue through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, targeted a naval base in the southern Israeli city of Eilat with what it called "appropriate weapons" that penetrated Israel's air defenses and triggered alarms but caused no casualties. Eilat is the southernmost large city in Israel, which is why Israel's enemies to the south (e.g. this militia and the Houthis in Yemen) often target it.
Russia
Insider - a Riga-based and Russia-focused investigative journalist outfit - ended a year-long investigation with the conclusion that Russia's military intelligence unit known as 29155 may have been responsible for the mysterious "Havana syndrome" attacks that affected U.S. diplomats and personnel in multiple locations around the globe: Insider found evidence placing 29155 members on the scene of several of the attacks. The Kremlin dismissed the report as "nothing more than baseless, unfounded accusations by the media."
Donald Tusk, Poland's PM and a former European Commission President, said Europe is entering a "pre-war era" and encouraged European countries to boost their defense spending in preparation for a possible future war against Russia. The Economist hinted that he was responding to an intensified Russian assault on Ukraine's energy structure.
Pouria Zeraati, a UK-based Iranian journalist known for criticizing Iran's regime, was wounded in a stabbing attack in southwest London Friday. UK terror police are investigating whether he was targeted because of his work.
Turkey
Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), stunned Pres. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party by winning local elections.
Analysts say the vote signaled a rebuke of Erdogan's plans to introduce a new constitution and consolidate power.
Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul's CHP mayor, won his bid for re-election against Erdogan's chosen candidate, which led to speculation that Imamoglu could challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future.
Afghanistan
A landmine apparently left behind during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s exploded in Ghazni this week, killing at least nine children - and drawing attention to the problem of unexploded ordnance scattered across the country from prior wars. Many minefields have been cleared, but some haven't yet.
Libya
Assailants attacked Tripoli PM Dbeibah's residence with rocket-propelled grenades yesterday, causing alarm but no casualties. It's not clear who was responsible, but it could have been one of the militias that supports the rival government in Benghazi.
China
Syngenta, a Swiss pesticides firm owned by China's state-owned ChemChina, cancelled a long-delayed $9 billion IPO (at a valuation of $60 billion) on the
Militant group targeted by Israeli strikes1 direct event link