Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Libya’s National Oil Corporation announced a significant oil discovery at well H1-NC4 in the Ghadames Basin. It also references an earlier OMV discovery in the Sirte Basin.
Unverified development · updated through
Libya’s National Oil Corporation announced a significant oil discovery at well H1-NC4 in the Ghadames Basin. It also references an earlier OMV discovery in the Sirte Basin.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
OMV dossier
4 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ghadames, Murzuq and Sirte basins
Eni and BP began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin after a ten-year hiatus, while Repsol and OMV were preparing to resume activity in the Murzuq and Sirte basins respectively.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 7 Nov UKRAINE •After 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet. •The fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas. •More importantly, it would give Pres. Putin a minor win to bolster his case to Pres. Trump that Russian victory is inevitable - and thus that sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine is folly. CENTRAL ASIA •Pres. Trump hosted leaders of the C5+1 bloc (comprising 5 "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and the U.S.) for a summit focused on strengthening partnerships on critical minerals and energy yesterday. •The C5 Stans are rich in uranium, copper, gold, and rare earths; but all maintain strong (but complicated) ties with Moscow as a legacy of the Soviet era. •Ahead of the White House meeting, Kazakhstan announced that it plans to join the Abraham Accords - a series of agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and its countersignatories. •Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and strong economic ties with Israel, so it has nothing left to gain from signing the Abraham Accords. Rather, its ceremonial inclusion may be a way to reinvigorate momentum for the deprioritized agreements. RUSSIA •After years of warnings that NATO had fallen far behind Russia on ammunition manufacturing, the alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced that NATO members are now collectively producing as many units per month as Russia is. •That may not sound like a big achievement for a bloc with a combined GDP 25 times Russia's, but it took massive investment in new and expanded production lines to overcome the gaping lead Russia had: just five months ago, Russia was making four times as much ammunition as NATO's 32 members. LIBYA •Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli. •NOC's new discovery follows OMV's find in the Sirte Basin last week, and both are signs of renewed confidence in investing in Libya's rich oil and gas potential. •Other companies are keen to join the rush, too: NOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 October Ukraine •The NYT wrote that Pres. Zelensky's failure to win Western support for his victory plan "could lead to a kind of success, allowing the president to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can and to prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal." That's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies. •Separately, Ukraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops. Russian soldiers on the hacked calls complained that they lacked enough commanders to lead the integrated units - or enough ammunition and weapons to arm the new recruits. •The intercepts also revealed that Russia has assigned one translator and three Russian soldiers for every 30 North Koreans joining the war; however, some frustrated calls complained that one translator isn't enough for 30 North Koreans. India •Canada's government escalated its charges that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil last year by explicitly accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, of orchestrating the hit. •Canada's accusation is especially serious given that Shah is a close ally of PM Modi and widely considered to be the second-most powerful figure in Modi's government. India hasn't responded yet. Iran •New satellite images from Planet Labs suggest that Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend did more damage than Iran let on. Several struck key military sites, including three of the four sites where the IRGC produces missiles (the extent of the damage to each isn't yet clear). •Iran's leaders may have felt compelled to downplay the significance of Israel's assault to mask its defensive shortcomings and justify a tactical decision not to re-retaliate against a stronger enemy. Gaza •Israel and Qatari mediators are reportedly reviewing a proposal to open a month-long truce in exchange for the release of 11-14 hostages - including all remaining women and children in Hamas captivity. That's a slightly bolder proposal than the Egyptian plan currently on the table, but it still stops short of the permanent ceasefire Hamas is thought to be seeking. Libya •Austrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Libya's NOC - which has been pushing foreign oil firms to resume drilling - cheered the news. Guyana •Guyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales. Guyana has enjoyed the world's fastest year-on-year GDP growth thanks to its oil proceeds. DRC •China's CMOC announced its third-quarter results, and they showed that cobalt production from the company's DRC mines had already surpassed its annual target of 60,000 to 70,000 tons by far: in just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source report