Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program. A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Assessment development · updated through
Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program. A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oleksandr Syrskyi dossier
3 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Thousands protested the firing of former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Fedorov accused commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi of obstructing military-modernization initiatives and that protesters called for Syrskyi’s removal.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 22 July 2026 UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky heeded protesters' calls and fired his top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi. •Syrskyi had clashed with ex-defense minister Mykhailo Federov over Federov's innovative (and, Syrskyi would say, disruptive) approach to war, and Syrskyi appeared to prevail when Federov was sacked last week. •The decision to fire Federov proved deeply unpopular with Ukrainians who credit his drone program with turning the tide of the war in Ukraine's favor. Tens of thousands turned out for rare street protests calling for Federov's reinstatement and Syrskyi's removal, with slogans like "Fedorov is innovation, old grandpas are degeneration." •They got their wish regarding Syrskyi's removal, but betting markets are placing only a 45% (but rising) chance on Federov being reinstated this week. Federov clashed with other members of the old guard besides Syrskyi, and reinstating him would build resentment among Syrskyi's supporters. •That may be a price Pres. Zelensky is willing to pay to continue the momentum that Federov's drones won for Ukraine. Zelensky appointed a Federov ally as Syrskyi's replacement and promised to reinstate Federov in a "prominent position." Federov has said he wouldn't settle for any position ranking lower than his previous post. SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S. plans to announce a deal to allow Saudi Arabia to build a civilian nuclear program imminently. •That won't sit well with Israel, which is perpetually concerned about its Arab neighbors using a civilian nuclear program as a stepping stone to developing nuclear weapons. •Moreover, many in Israel see today's U.S.-Saudi deal as a snub to Israel, which - before the Oct. 7 attacks - reportedly hoped to trade its approval of a Saudi civilian nuclear program for Saudi diplomatic recognition. This deal forces Israel to concede its side of that trade for nothing in return. INDIA •India's youth-led protests for education reform risk spilling over into a broader movement criticizing Prime Minister Modi's government for its treatment of demonstrators. •Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi joined in the criticism of Modi's government, and was arrested after staging a sit-in outside Modi's house and calling for Modi's removal over police brutality against protesters. •Meanwhile, Modi's education minister - who was the main target of frustrated demonstrators - has barely addressed calls for exam reforms, saying only that he was "committed" to improvements. The protesters want him out. DRC •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi acquiesced to the opposition's demands for an inclusive national dialogue under the oversight of the religious leaders who joined him in the room for his announcement. •Seemingly appeased, opposition parties duly cancelled the protest they'd scheduled for today. To me, it seems strange that Tshisekedi's critics would be satisfied with the mere promise of talks while their chief grievance - Tshisekedi's "constitutional coup" to remain in power beyond his term - is still moving forward. SOCIAL MEDIA •France became the first European country to pass a social media age ban, with a new law restricting youths under 15 from accessing social media - or using cell phones in school - after classes resume in the fall. Somewhat ironically, Pres. Macron announced the new social media ban on social media. •Australia was the first country to impose a social media ban for youth, and its ban hasn't been a resounding success. Early studies show that 85% of Australian teens under 16 were still using restricted social media platforms six months after they were ostensibly banned from them (the ban at least inspired some creativity: many teens reported using clever tricks like fake moustaches to skirt the ban). •France's ban seems equally unlikely to work.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
Open source report