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Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a parliamentary confidence vote, setting the stage for an early German election in February 2025.
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Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a parliamentary confidence vote, setting the stage for an early German election in February 2025.
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Olaf Scholz dossier
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Germany
Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, effectively ending the coalition of Scholz’s Social Democrats, Lindner’s Free Democrats and the Greens. The immediate rupture comes from a leaked fiscal-policy paper by Lindner.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 23 Aug Ukraine •According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Gen. Syrsky, Ukrainian troops have now advanced as far as 35 km into Kursk. •Russia has shifted some troops from Chasiv Yar to defend against the Kursk invasion, but the operation hasn't diverted Russian forces away from Ukrainian front lines as much as Ukraine hoped it would. •Russia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled. •Last week, German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian allegedly involved in the 2022 attacks sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Now German anger at the possibility that Ukraine was behind the attacks is morphing into new scrutiny of German support for Ukraine. •Chancellor Scholz insisted that Germany remains "Ukraine's biggest national supporter in Europe," but his unpopular ruling coalition is facing popular and fiscal pressure to reduce its overall spending - as well as its spending on Ukraine. Venezuela •Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice - which Pres. Maduro stacked with supporters - unsurprisingly ruled in his favor and certified his fraudulent election victory. •The court said its ruling was based on "national and international experts" and was "supported by the tally reports issued by each of the vote machines" - though the vast majority of "international experts" are certainly not on Maduro's side (save a few Chinese techs that are helping Maduro steal the vote), and neither Maduro nor the court has released any tally reports to support their claims. •The opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged. Afghanistan •Afghan women lost their figurative voices when the Taliban took over in 2021; now they're losing their voices in a more literal way - and losing other rights, too. A new 114-page Taliban document now forbids women from talking loudly (even inside their own homes), singing or reading the Koran in public, or merely looking at men they don't know. •The new edict also forbids Afghan men from trimming their beards. •One Afghan former civil servant told The Telegraph: "The international community’s engagement with the Taliban has emboldened them to further suppress women," and that seems plausible. •In a further sign of international engagement with the Taliban, the UAE officially accepted a Taliban ambassador today. That makes the UAE the second country - after China - to legitimize the Taliban government by accepting its ambassador.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 April Middle East •Israel's war cabinet met for a second time yesterday, but adjourned without finalizing a plan to respond to Iran's drone and missile attack over the weekend - and postponed a third meeting that was set for today. The head of its army pledged Iran's attack would "be met with a response," though. •Israel has several options on the table, but all come with risks. The war cabinet is reportedly considering another strike in a third country (like the one in Damascus that started this tit-for-tat), a cyberstrike on Iranian infrastructure, and a strike on a symbolic target in Iran. The Economist pointed out Israel is unlikely to retaliate this week ahead of the Passover holiday next week. •The U.S. and EU are working on fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone programs, and both Western countries and Arab states are encouraging Israel to respond by "isolating Iran" (in Pres. Macron's words) instead of striking it back - though that idea is unpalatable in Israel, where hardliners are pushing for harsher revenge. •Separately, both Hezbollah and the Israeli army confirmed that an Israeli drone strike killed another Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah drones targeted an Iron Dome battery in northern Israel, causing three minor injuries. China •New data showed that China's real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023, and 5.3% year on year - thanks in part to a new focus on exporting goods to make up for weak domestic spending. That surge in cheap Chinese exports is putting pressure on local manufacturers in the countries receiving them, causing leaders like Germany's Chancellor Scholz to complain to Chinese officials about the flood of exports. •China's nominal GDP grew by less than its real GDP - 4.2% year on year - indicating that prices shrank 1.1%. China hasn't seen deflation since 1999, and economists say its emergence now is evidence of a lopsided economic recovery based on exports rather than internal growth. •A Chinese marathoner, He Jie, won Sunday's Beijing Half Marathon...but only after three African runners who were leading the race waved him through right before the finish line and then finished behind him in a three-way tie for second. Race organizers are investigating the peculiar camaraderie. Venezuela •Venezuela arrested two more senior energy officials as part of an investigation into billions of dollars that went missing in a crypto fraud at state oil company PDVSA. The arrest of these two vice ministers follows last week's arrest of former oil minister - and close Maduro ally - Tarek el Aissami. •Separately, Venezuela also arrested a well-known activist accused of plotting to assassinate Pres. Maduro. Caracas has been arresting activists and dissidents for political reasons ahead of July's election, so it's not clear whether there was actually an assassination attempt involved - this could have been another politically-motivated arrest. Other News •Dubai got two years' worth of rain - 6.3" or 16 cm - in 24 hours between Monday night and last night, leading to flooding and flight diversions. It's illegal to criticize the government in the UAE, so locals who told the AP of "absolute carnage" in the floods did so anonymously.
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