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4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Venezuela rejected President Nayib Bukele's proposal to exchange 252 Venezuelans deported from the United States and held in El Salvador for an equal number of Venezuelan political prisoners. Attorney General Tarek Saab called the proposal cynical, while some Venezuelan opposition figures welcomed it.
Unverified development · updated through
Venezuela rejected President Nayib Bukele's proposal to exchange 252 Venezuelans deported from the United States and held in El Salvador for an equal number of Venezuelan political prisoners. Attorney General Tarek Saab called the proposal cynical, while some Venezuelan opposition figures welcomed it.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Nayib Bukele dossier
3 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
El Salvador
President Nayib Bukele overturned El Salvador’s longstanding mining ban and argued that gold reserves could transform the economy, while environmentalists opposed the decision.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff leash update 24 Dec Mozambique •Mozambique's highest court reaffirmed official election results naming the ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, the new president. •Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second and fled the country just after the poll - had threatened a "new popular uprising" if the court didn't reverse results in his favor, and called on his supporters to stage new protests after the court's decision yesterday. They complied, turning out in droves to chant his name and throw rocks at police. Gaza and Yemen •Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers that "some progress" had been made towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but added "I don't know how long it will take." •Meanwhile, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly acknowledged that Israel was behind the July assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was always widely assumed that Israel was responsible, but this is the first time an Israeli official confirmed it. •Katz's comment on Haniyeh came in the context of a threat to Houthi leaders: "We will strike hard at the Houthis ... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa." •The Houthis lobbed another ballistic missile towards Israel - their third in under a week - and vowed to keep firing "until the aggression against our people in Gaza stops." This missile was easily intercepted - though some Israelis suffered injuries while fleeing to shelter. Syria •Jordanian and Qatari diplomats visited Damascus to court Syria's new leaders. Most Arab countries broke ties with Assad after his 2011 crackdown on dissent, but they now see Syria's transition as a chance to rebuild relations with the new government. •Armed men torched a Christmas tree in the mostly-Christian Syrian town of Suqaylabiyah, and it sparked an uproar among Christians and other minority groups in Syria, who are skeptically waiting to see if the former Islamists now running the country will do as much as they've promised to preserve minority rights. •The UN's International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria - which was founded in 2016 to investigate ex-Pres. Assad's war crimes - said Syria's new government is "very receptive" to its efforts to gather evidence against Assad. Of course it is: many of Assad's worst crimes targeted rebels like them. North Korea •U.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin - who Kim has called his "closest comrade" - on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help. •That's a shift from the initial narrative, which suggested Putin pleaded for Kim's help because he was suffering high casualty rates in Ukraine and desperately needed more soldiers (it now seems the North Koreans in Ukraine are being plucked off quickly, so they're proving to be poor reinforcements anyway). Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's loyal Attorney General, Tarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released in a belated Christmas gift (Christmas began Oct. 1 in Venezuela, per Maduro's decree). •Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners - of the ~2,000 arrested during Maduro's post-election crackdown - but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count. Other News •El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, overturned a years long ban on mining in the country and expressed hope that rich gold reserves could "transform" the economy. Environmentalists are appalled. •Earlier today, NASA's unmanned Parker Solar Probe flew closer to the sun than any earthman-made spacecraft has before, coming within 3.8 million miles (6.1 million km) of the star's surface.
Open source report