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4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 7 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Mojtaba Khamenei is his father’s successor; he was absent from funeral prayers. He has not appeared publicly since a February 28, 2026 strike that killed his father and injured him.
Unverified development · updated through
Mojtaba Khamenei is his father’s successor; he was absent from funeral prayers. He has not appeared publicly since a February 28, 2026 strike that killed his father and injured him.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mojtaba Khamenei dossier
6 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Iran
Iran’s Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father. His family background and security-service relationships suggest he is likely to remain a hardliner.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 6 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Philippine Senate began an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte, who stands accused of corruption and making public threats against President Bongbong Marcos after the once-allied running mates bitterly fell out. Duterte insists the charges are politically motivated. •Iran is in the middle of a six-day, two-country funeral for slain former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The events conclude on Thursday, when Khamenei will be buried in his northeastern hometown of Mashad. •Turkey will host a NATO summit tomorrow and Wednesday. Pres. Trump plans to attend, and will likely have some gripes to express: last week he complained that it was "ridiculous" for the U.S. to continue its "one-sided" relationship with NATO. •The Paris Court of Appeal will rule on French far-right leader Marine Le Pen's appeal to overturn her conviction for misusing European funds. If the court overturns her conviction and resulting ban on holding public office, then she'll be the National Rally (RN) party's candidate in next year's presidential poll. If the court upholds her conviction, Jordan Bardella will represent the RN. •The 139th Wimbledon Championships conclude with the men's final on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,091/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,245/ton •Bitcoin: $62,747 •Cobalt: $/ton •Copper: $13,367/ton •Ethereum: $1,762 •Gold: $4,143/toz •Lead: $1,892/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.23/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.33/barrel •Zinc: $3,541/ton IRAN •Hundreds of thousands of Iranians turned out to mourn Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the first days of his funeral. •It's not that Khamenei was wildly popular - in fact, he was widely disliked by the end of his reign, as Iranians increasingly blamed him for their country's economic woes and resented the brutal crackdowns his repressive security services inflicted on those who dared to criticize. •Rather, the government engineered high turnout by declaring national holidays and bribing attendees with freebies. •Khamenei's son and successor, Mojtaba, was conspicuously absent as his three brothers prayed beside their father's coffin. Mojtaba hasn't been seen in public since the Feb. 28, 2026 strike that killed his father - and reportedly maimed him. CHINA •China tested a long-range, submarine-launched ballistic missile with a "mock warhead" today - its first such test in nearly two years. •Beijing insisted the launch was just part of "routine" training and "not directed against any specific country or target," but its timing suggests it was a reaction to Australia signing a new mutual defense treaty with Fiji just hours prior. •Australia's foreign minister chastised Beijing for the test, which she called "destabilizing to the region." UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky will meet on the sidelines of this week's NATO summit to capitalize on new momentum towards a peace deal. •After the leaders spoke by phone over the weekend, Zelensky optimistically declared: "There is a real prospect to put an end to this war, and America's resolve is decisive." We shall see. VENEZUELA •Venezuela has now tallied 3,342 deaths from twin earthquakes on June 24. Thousands are still missing, and residents are seething at the government over its slow and flaccid response to the disaster. •According to a new NYT report, residents of shoddily-built public housing are also livid with the state for ignoring - and even suppressing - years of warnings that their homes would crumble in a tremor. Last month, many did just that.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April IRAN •Just 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce. •Iran pledged to reopen the Strait and both sides agreed to join talks towards a more lasting peace, which will start in Islamabad on Friday. •Axios reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, personally backed and blessed the deal. That suggests Khamenei - who holds his cards close but is thought to be a hardliner - has a pragmatic side too. •Investors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait. LEBANON •Israel said the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran does not include Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Hezbollah targets there. •Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S.-Iran agreement does include Lebanon. Lebanon's economy minister complained of "mixed signals." IRAQ •Kataib Hezbollah freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson yesterday - one week after kidnapping her in Baghdad. •The group apparently abducted Kittleson in order to use her as a bargaining chip to win the release of some of its members from Iraqi jails, and it worked: several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members were freed yesterday, too. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan have been quietly engaging in peace talks in the western Chinese city of Urumqi this week. •Kabul called the talks "useful," but it sounds like both sides merely repeated the same tired accusations and demands they've been making for decades. •The only thing that China's Foreign Ministry could claim that this summit achieved was a vague alignment on "media coverage" (and the fact that it offered no further details on what that means shows how little alignment there really was). NORTH KOREA •North Korean state media published photos of Kim Jong Un's daughter and presumed successor, Kim Ju-ae, driving a tank during a military exercise. •Pyongyang's propaganda is always carefully crafted to send a specific message. These images of Ju-ae in military motifs are likely intended to convey that - despite being female in a deeply patriarchal society - she has the legitimacy to succeed her male ancestors. [They also show that North Korea has a low driving age: Ju-ae is thought to be just 13.] SPACE •NASA's Artemis II mission beamed some spectacular images from its lunar flyby back to Earth yesterday. You can see them here: https://t.co/6IqxEqVCCH.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source report