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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
President Emmanuel Macron informed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that France would recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly and urge allies to do likewise. Strong objections from Israeli leaders.
Unverified development · updated through
President Emmanuel Macron informed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that France would recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly and urge allies to do likewise. Strong objections from Israeli leaders.
Open source reportGeography
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Mahmoud Abbas dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Gaza and Palestinian territories
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the October 7 attacks in a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Abbas also called for Hamas to give up control of Gaza, release all hostages and permit presidential elections within a year.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
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