5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
5Linked events
5Source reports
2024-04-05First seen
2024-10-24Last seen
Evidence mix5 developments
Erik’s assessment1Unverified4
Direct mentions
5
Countries
Multiple, Niger, Palestine, Russia
Categories
Active conflict, Strategic competition, U.S. strategic interests
Latest linked intelligence
U.S. intelligence corroborated reports of North Korean troops traveling to eastern Russia, while officials had not concluded that they were training to fight or already fighting in Ukraine. According to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the judgment that a possible deployment would be “very, very serious.”
Unverified development · updated through
Latest directly linked development
Eastern RussiaUnverified
North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia
U.S. intelligence corroborated reports of North Korean troops traveling to eastern Russia, while officials had not concluded that they were training to fight or already fighting in Ukraine. According to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the judgment that a possible deployment would be “very, very serious.”
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Lloyd Austin dossier
Lloyd Austin linked geography
5 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Source archive
0:00Approximate scope
Gaza Strip
Strike killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza
An Israeli strike killed seven World Central Kitchen workers. José Andrés as alleging the marked convoy was targeted systematically, cites criticism from President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and quotes Israel’s military chief describing the strike as a misidentification and mistake.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Mention timeline
North Korean troop reports, Turkey-PKK escalation, and contested political developments
Off Leash update 24 Oct
North Korea
•U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege).
•SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."]
•North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative."
Turkey
•Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four.
•Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians.
•The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence.
•Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal.
•That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal.
Afghanistan
•Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief.
•Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed.
Venezuela
•The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.
•In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country."
Mozambique
•Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote.
•The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
U.S. defense secretary quoted assessing a possible North Korean deployment1 direct event link
Sinwar reported killed as Ukraine presses NATO plan and U.S. bombers strike Houthi facilities
Off leash update 17 October
***The IDF successfully eliminated Hama's leader Yahya Sinwar
Venezuela
•Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denied Pres. Maduro's claim that she's fled the country for Spain: "Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it."
•Machado remains - wisely - in hiding and out of reach of police seeking to arrest her on bogus, politically-motivated charges. She told an independent TV channel that Maduro and his cronies "are desperate to know where I am and I'm not going to give them that pleasure."
Ukraine
•Pres. Zelensky was deprived of an opportunity to do a grand reveal of his "victory plan" during last week's multilateral meeting on Ukraine, but he instead pitched the plan bilaterally during a whirlwind tour meeting leaders of the UK, U.S., France, Italy, and Germany.
•Yesterday, Zelensky shared the high-level plan with Ukraine's parliament and the media.
•Its centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance - which has not been forthcoming - and it also calls on partners to expand their military support for Ukraine.
•None of the plan's five public points contained any major new proposals - yet Zelensky insisted that "if we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year." (The plan also proposed three "secret" points that were selectively shared with partners).
•So far, it's received a muted response. NATO's SecGen, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would "take note" of Zelensky's proposal, and several partners announced minor new aid packages (the U.S. offered $425 million in fresh military support - including for air defenses - and Australia said it would send Ukraine 50 old M1 Abrams tanks worth $164 million).
Hezbollah
•Israel brushed off a U.S. warning that it "had concerns with and [is] opposed to" Israel's strikes on Beirut and carried out more airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese capital yesterday, killing at least 16.
•Israel didn't officially comment on the other U.S. critique conveyed yesterday - an ultimatum to improve aid flows to Gaza within 30 days or risk losing access to new U.S. weapons - but there was a slight uptick in humanitarian aid flows to Gaza. Yesterday, 50 aid trucks entered the strip - more than the recent rate of 30 per day but still far short of the 350 per day that aid officials say Gazans need.
Iran
•U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday.
•The airstrikes were ostensibly carried out to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to threaten Red Sea shipping, but the choice to use B-2s to strike underground targets was also intended to send a message to Iran that its underground nuclear sites could be next.
•(The B-2 is the only U.S. plane that can carry the largest "bunker buster" bombs capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, and it has never before been used in Yemen - where F/A-18s can do the same job cheaper and with less fleet risk).
•SecDef Austin alluded to the Yemen operation being a broader signal to Iran by calling it: "a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified."
•Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian border guards massacred dozens - or perhaps scores - of Afghans trying to illegally enter Iran from Pakistan on Sunday.
•Beijing's latest war games succeeded in scaring Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters that the unprecedented drills showed that the People's Liberation Army is "increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict" and assessed that "this drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan."
U.S. defense secretary quoted describing the reach of U.S. strike capabilities1 direct event link
Off Leash update: Gaza diplomacy, Russian presence in Niger and M23 gains in eastern DRC
Off Leash update 3 May
Birthday of a great man, my late father; Edgar Dale Prince
Gaza
•Ismail Haniyeh, who leads Hamas's political wing, said Hamas is pondering Israel's latest ceasefire proposal with a "positive spirit," which is more encouraging than the "negative" outlook other Hamas officials indicated for the plan yesterday.
•Still, a Hamas spokesman reiterated that "negotiations will stop" if Israel launches its ground invasion of Rafah. In the meantime, Hamas is sending a delegation to Cairo to continue talks.
•Turkey halted all trade with Israel over the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" unfolding in Gaza, but said it would resume trade if Israel allows the "uninterrupted and sufficient flow" of humanitarian aid into the strip. Turkey is Israel's fourth-largest trading partner, with 2022 imports plus exports totaling $6.8 billion. Israel's foreign minister accused Pres. Erdogan of acting like a "dictator." [Other critics have called Erdogan a "dictator" before, but usually it's in connection with his electioneering tactics and not trade policy.]
•A new UN report estimated it could take 80 years to rebuild the 79,000 Gazan homes that were destroyed in just seven months of fighting, assuming reconstruction moves at the same galacial pace it did after the last two flare-ups in Gaza in 2014 and 2021 (992 per year, on average). And that still ignores the 370,000 Gazan homes that were damaged but not destroyed since Oct. 7.
Sahel
•Russian trainers entered Airbase 101 in Niger, which houses some of the U.S. troops remaining in the country. SecDef Austin seemed ok with the overlap: "The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment."
•The U.S. may not have much kit left at Airbase 101 anyway: following the coup last July it began moving equipment from Airbase 101 near Niamey to Airbase 201 near Agadez.
DRC
•M23 rebels captured - or "liberated," in their words - the mining city of Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya's coltan mines produce about half of DRC's coltan ore supply, containing about ~20% of the total global supply of the critical smartphone mineral tantalum.
•Locals report that M23 rebels are now advancing toward the region's largest city, Goma.
Russia
•Russia's state-owned Gazprom reported its first annual loss in about 20 years for 2023. European purchases of Russian gas dropped because of a mild winter and the war in Ukraine, and the outlook for 2024 looks worse still.
Other News
•Colombia's Pres. Petro divulged that vast stockpiles of ammunition - including millions of bullets, thousands of grenades, and 37 anti-tank missiles - were stolen from two Colombian military bases. Petro blamed "people within the armed forces who are involved in the illegal arms trade," and suggested the stolen munitions may have been sold to overseas criminal groups, including Haitian gangs.
•Separately, early results show Conservatives losing ground in local elections in England and Wales, suggesting Rishi Sunak may struggle to hold onto his premiership in general elections early next year.
U.S. secretary of defense quoted regarding separation of Russian and U.S. personnel1 direct event link
Iranian arms claims, Rafah uncertainty and eastern DRC attack lead 10 April brief
Off Leash 10 April
Gaza
The NYT exposed a covert Iranian operation to flood the West Bank with smuggled weapons - mostly small arms - to foment chaos and create problems for Israel. Iranian officials told the Times the operation isn't focused on a particular armed group - rather, it aims to get guns into as many Palestinian hands as possible.
Separately, Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, contradicted his boss's earlier assertion that a date had been set for the ground invasion of Rafah to begin. Gallant told U.S. SecDef Austin that the date has not yet been decided.
The U.S. and other countries are still urging Israel to use restraint and forge a peace deal instead of invading Rafah, and their pleas are becoming sharper and more direct. For example, yesterday Pres. Biden criticized PM Netanyahu's approach to Gaza in the harshest terms he's used yet, calling it a "mistake."
China
Fitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth.
Beijing called the downgrade a "pity" and insisted the local "hidden" debts Fitch was especially concerned about are manageable.
Russia
Melting snow is causing devastating floods along Russia's Ural river, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The Ural floods every year as snow melts off the Ural mountains, but this year's floods are already the worst in decades - and haven't even peaked yet.
Some Russians affected by the floods blamed Pres. Putin for ignoring their crisis and staged a rare protest to demand more government help.
Separately, Russia's fun-hating republic of Chechnya extinguished another spark of joy by banning dance music that's either too fast (over 116 beats per minute) or too slow (under 80 beats per minute). Chechen musicians have until June 1 to re-record non-compliant tunes within the legal tempo range so they "conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm."
Libya
The U.S. State Department clarified recent reports about an American private security contractor - Amentum - training Libyan armed groups: the State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya."
DRC
Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The blasts occurred at the same camp near Goma where two South African soldiers were killed in a similar attack in February.
Other News
A group of 2,000 elderly Swiss women won a landmark case at the European Court of Human Rights: the court ruled that Swiss policymakers violated the women's human rights by failing to implement adequate climate policies to prevent adverse health outcomes. The case sets a precedent for Europeans to sue their countries for better climate policies. Conservative Swiss media called the ruling "absurd." (EP note. Correct that is completely absurd!)
U.S. defense secretary and reported recipient of Gallant’s statement1 direct event link
Ukraine drone adaptation, Gaza aid-worker strike and regional political tensions
Off Leash 4 April
Ukraine
Videos of the aftermath of Ukraine's drone strike deep inside Russia's Tatarstan showed that the weapon was possibly delivered by a converted $90,000 Aeroprakt A-22 single-propeller sport plane (or perhaps two of them) modified for the task.
Analysts noted that the high-bank-for-buck converted drone is extremely scalable, so we could see Ukraine use more of them in the near future.
Russia
Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu held an unusual call with his French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, yesterday. Shoigu reportedly warned Lecornu against deploying French troops to Ukraine [even though France is nowhere close to sending troops, and the idea was just a remote future possibility Pres. Macron raised last month without EU backing].
Shoigu also told Lecornu that Russia is ready to take part in peace talks, but its ongoing escalations on the battlefield suggest otherwise.
Gaza
Global media reported widespread condemnation of the Israeli strike that killed seven food aid workers from celebrity chef José Andrés's World Central Kitchen NGO. Andrés himself angrily accused Israel of targeting a marked humanitarian convoy "systematically, car by car."
Pres. Biden said he was "outraged and heartbroken" by the strike, and U.S. SecDef Austin also criticized it with a warning that it raised concerns about Israel's ability to differentiate civilians and humanitarian personnel from militant targets if and when it embarks on a looming ground offensive in Rafah.
Israel's military chief of staff offered as much of an apology as we'll probably ever hear from an Israeli official at his rank over the strike: "It was a mistake that followed a misidentification, at night during the war in a very complex condition. It shouldn’t have happened."
China
TSMC's semiconductor factories appear to have withstood the earthquake that hit Taiwan on Wednesday with no major damage, and are already nearly back to normal production rates.
Since TSMC makes around 90% of the world's advanced chips, its resilience in an earthquake was good news for chipmaking, which has been operating near peak capacity since rebounding from COVID-induced supply chain problems.
Venezuela
Pres. Maduro accused the U.S. of building "secret military bases" in the large, oil-rich chunk of Guyana that Veneuzela disputes and calls Essequibo. Maduro may be using such provocative escalation to stir up fear and justify his plans to "defend" the disputed region as Venezuela's own.
Other News
The speaker of South Africa's parliament tendered her resignation amidst an investigation into allegations that she took bribes in exchange for awarding defense contracts while she was defense minister. Despite her resignation and the criminal charges that followed it, she denies wrongdoing.
U.S. defense secretary reported to have criticized the Gaza strike1 direct event link