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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met LNA Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar, while Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and other U.S. officials met the deputy defense minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity.
Unverified development · updated through
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met LNA Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar, while Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and other U.S. officials met the deputy defense minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity.
Open source reportGeography
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Libyan National Army dossier
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Libya
Khalifa Haftar’s LNA agreed to buy more than $4 billion in Pakistani arms and equipment. An earlier draft listed 16 JF-17 fighters and 12 Super Mushak trainers, but final details are unclear and questions whether the deal will proceed under the UN arms embargo.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 December SYRIA •Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, sparked controversy during his visit to Syria yesterday when he commented that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has no intention of complying with its Spring 2025 commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year. •Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist group and wants Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's government in Damascus to do more to contain it and other Kurdish elements in Syria. •Al Sharaa's government seems reluctant to risk antagonizing either the SDF or Turkey, and thus finds itself in an awkward position between the two. •Syrian government forces briefly launched a half-hearted effort to take over some checkpoints in SDF-controlled parts of Aleppo, but quickly retreated after skirmishes that left two civilians dead. •Al Sharaa and the SDF would probably be content to maintain the status quo, and Damascus reportedly recently sent the SDF a proposal that would essentially formalize the separate arrangement they currently enjoy. •But that's unlikely to satisfy Turkey, which will probably continue to pressure al Sharaa to take a harder line against the SDF. CHINA •A new Pentagon report found that China likely loaded over 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia recently, and concluded that the move suggests Beijing isn't taking Pres. Trump's efforts to engage in denuclearization talks seriously. •Beijing continues to deny that it's aggressively modernizing its military and arms arsenal. Chinese officials have repeatedly accused reports suggesting otherwise - like the Pentagon's latest - of trying to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." •Separately, China slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports. The European Commission called the new duties unjustified. SUDAN •Sudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC). •Idris's plan is unlikely to gain traction: it calls for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps. •The RSF - which recently captured El Fasher and has the upper hand in Darfur - certainly won't entertain the idea of surrendering its gains so easily. •Idris's proposal isn't going to win U.S. backing, either. Pres. Trump has instead pushed for a humanitarian truce that the U.S. and its allies on the UNSC will support over Idris's stillborn idea. LIBYA •Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan. •Details on the finalized agreement are hazy, but an earlier draft included 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft on the LNA's shopping list. •If the deal goes through - which is a big if, since it appears to contravene the UN's arms embargo on Libya - it would be one of Pakistan's largest arms sales ever.
Open source report