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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker Tagor. This is France’s fourth boarding of a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker since September 2025; the Kremlin condemned the action.
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The French Navy intercepted and boarded the sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker Tagor. This is France’s fourth boarding of a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker since September 2025; the Kremlin condemned the action.
Open source reportGeography
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Kremlin dossier
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European Union and Russia
Russia warned that it would treat a proposed €140 billion interest-free EU loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets as a seizure and retaliate against an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Ethiopia votes in parliamentary elections today. Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party is sure to win, since large parts of the rebellious regions of Amhara and Tigray won't vote and Abiy's strongest rivals have been sidelined or jailed. •The Oslo Freedom Forum - Human Rights Foundation's annual summit - starts today. This year's speakers include Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and actor Richard Gere, who played a victim of human rights abuses in Red Corner and Bent (and is also an established rights advocate off-screen). •Saturday is the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. •Sunday is a big day for elections: Armenia and Kosovo vote in parliamentary polls, and Peru votes in a run-off presidential election. In Peru, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori has a narrow polling lead over leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,667/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,474/ton •Bitcoin: $72,614 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,636/ton •Ethereum: $1,982 •Gold: $4,510/toz •Lead: $2,016/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $90.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,540/ton COLOMBIA •Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, but with less support than he needed to win the presidency outright. He'll face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda in a run-off on June 21. •President Petro - who backed Cepeda - rejected the result, citing (but not substantiating) irregularities. IRAN •Iran and the U.S. traded strikes over the weekend, but continued to exercise restraint: the U.S. said its strikes were in "self-defense," and Iran said it was merely retaliating against the U.S. strikes. •Several reports suggested that Pres. Trump sent a draft agreement back to Iran with some proposed changes to Iran's offer, but other accounts suggest there isn't much room to negotiate between the two sides' demands. •U.S. ships have reportedly quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire. It corresponds to an average of about three vessels per day, which is far short of the 100 per day that transited the Strait pre-war. RUSSIA •The French Navy intercepted and boarded a sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker, the Tagor, in international waters about 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. •Pres. Macron justified the seizure in a post on X: "It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea, and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than four years." It was the fourth time the French Navy has boarded a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker since Sep. 2025. •The Kremlin complained about the "illegal" seizure, which it said was "bordering on international piracy." VENEZUELA •The AP reported on emerging rifts in interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government, with longtime Maduro loyalists criticizing Rodriguez's reforms. They particularly object to her deportation of close Maduro ally Alex Saab to face trial in the U.S., and her authorization for U.S. forces to conduct training in Caracas. •Andrés Izarra - who served as communications minister under Hugo Chavez and tourism minister under Maduro before falling out with Maduro's cronies and fleeing into exile - said the divide isn't about Chavismo ideology, which Izarra thinks died with its founder in 2013. Rather, "since there is no ideological foundation, it is simply a struggle for power, money, positions, and survival."
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 March IRAN •Pres. Trump demanded that Iran's regime reconsider the 15-point peace proposal it rejected this week, and warned that if they don't then "we'll just keep blowing them out of the water." •Trump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum. •Meanwhile, Israel took a more direct approach and assassinated Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval commander who led Iran's blockade and boasted about its success on X. •Iran has reportedly started charging some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening. RUSSIA •Citing Western intelligence, The Financial Times reported that Russia is "close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran." The drones are thought to be upgraded versions of the Shahed-136s Iran sent to Russia in 2022 with improved navigation systems and a new name: Geran-2. •The Kremlin denounced reports that it's arming Iran as "false information," which means it's probably true information. The NYT reported that "Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine." •Separately, Pres. Putin assembled a group of oligarchs yesterday to ask them to donate part of their largesse to help fund the war effort. At least two quickly agreed. •It was the first time Putin has directly asked Russian tycoons for help, but not the first time their companies have been shaken down to fill the war chest: some of them paid a 10% one-time windfall tax in 2023, and VAT went up by 2% (to 22%) in January. But those measures alone will only raise about one trillion rubles; Putin's war cost 13 trillion rubles last year alone. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. •Many analysts would agree with Zelensky's assessment that Trump "still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side." •Ukraine ceding control of that strip of the Donbas was one of Russia's firm conditions for ending the war, so by trading U.S. security guarantees for it, Trump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Immediately after their temporary Eid ceasefire ended, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed attacks. Pakistani strikes killed two in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan vowed an "appropriate response." Few expected the brief truce to last beyond the holiday period.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 October RUSSIA •The Kremlin warned European leaders against approving a proposal to essentially advance Ukraine €140 billion ($156 billion) in future reparations funding backed by frozen Russian assets. •The EU plan would package that funding as an interest-free loan to avoid the complexities of seizing Russian assets outright, but the Kremlin now says it would consider such crafty financial engineering the same thing as a seizure anyway, and would retaliate by seizing an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia. •Separately, French authorities seized a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker off France's western coast and detained two of its crew over the tanker's suspected ties to recent drone flights over European countries. That lends credence to Ukrainian President Zelensky's assertion that the trespassing drones are being launched from Russia's "shadow fleet." •Indeed, the seized tanker, the Borocay, was sailing near the Danish coast last week when unidentified drones - likely launched from it - menaced Denmark's skies and forced its main airport to temporarily close. DRC •Some Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer. •Kabila's sympathizers are probably correct that his conviction and sentence were politically motivated, and the conviction is certainly not going to encourage Kabila to help end the conflict in the east. But the death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage. AFGHANISTAN •Internet service returned to Afghanistan after a two-day outage that media reports tied to a Taliban edict against "immorality." •A Taliban spokesman now says the government didn't intentionally cut off internet this time - unlike from 1996 to 2001 during their last turn in power, when they did ban internet use. •That may be a way to save face after Taliban leaders realized how much Afghanistan's economy and people now depend on the internet for basic and Taliban-tolerated (for men, at least) functions like trade, travel, and communications. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Daily Update?: NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary on Thursday. SecGen Stoltenberg will commemorate the occasion with a press conference in Brussels. Kuwait votes in a general election on Thursday, and Slovakia votes in the second round of its presidential election on Saturday. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,337/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $8,867/ton Gold: $2,233/toz Lead: $2,055/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.76/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $83.17/barrel Zinc: $2,439/ton Gaza and Israel Israel and Hamas resumed ceasefire talks in Cairo yesterday. Then Israel announced an end to its two-week operation in and around al-Shifa hospital, which Israel says Hamas has been using as an operating base. Israel carried out airstrikes on another militant group, Islamic Jihad, in the courtyard of another hospital, Al Aqsa in Deir al Balah. Those strikes reportedly injured seven journalists but killed four members of Islamic Jihad, according to the BBC. Tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests against PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem yesterday. They want Netanyahu to resign over his handling of the war and hold fresh elections. The demonstrations are set to continue through Wednesday. Meanwhile, The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, targeted a naval base in the southern Israeli city of Eilat with what it called "appropriate weapons" that penetrated Israel's air defenses and triggered alarms but caused no casualties. Eilat is the southernmost large city in Israel, which is why Israel's enemies to the south (e.g. this militia and the Houthis in Yemen) often target it. Russia Insider - a Riga-based and Russia-focused investigative journalist outfit - ended a year-long investigation with the conclusion that Russia's military intelligence unit known as 29155 may have been responsible for the mysterious "Havana syndrome" attacks that affected U.S. diplomats and personnel in multiple locations around the globe: Insider found evidence placing 29155 members on the scene of several of the attacks. The Kremlin dismissed the report as "nothing more than baseless, unfounded accusations by the media." Donald Tusk, Poland's PM and a former European Commission President, said Europe is entering a "pre-war era" and encouraged European countries to boost their defense spending in preparation for a possible future war against Russia. The Economist hinted that he was responding to an intensified Russian assault on Ukraine's energy structure. Pouria Zeraati, a UK-based Iranian journalist known for criticizing Iran's regime, was wounded in a stabbing attack in southwest London Friday. UK terror police are investigating whether he was targeted because of his work. Turkey Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), stunned Pres. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party by winning local elections. Analysts say the vote signaled a rebuke of Erdogan's plans to introduce a new constitution and consolidate power. Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul's CHP mayor, won his bid for re-election against Erdogan's chosen candidate, which led to speculation that Imamoglu could challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future. Afghanistan A landmine apparently left behind during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s exploded in Ghazni this week, killing at least nine children - and drawing attention to the problem of unexploded ordnance scattered across the country from prior wars. Many minefields have been cleared, but some haven't yet. Libya Assailants attacked Tripoli PM Dbeibah's residence with rocket-propelled grenades yesterday, causing alarm but no casualties. It's not clear who was responsible, but it could have been one of the militias that supports the rival government in Benghazi. China Syngenta, a Swiss pesticides firm owned by China's state-owned ChemChina, cancelled a long-delayed $9 billion IPO (at a valuation of $60 billion) on the
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