Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Khalifa Haftar’s LNA agreed to buy more than $4 billion in Pakistani arms and equipment. An earlier draft listed 16 JF-17 fighters and 12 Super Mushak trainers, but final details are unclear and questions whether the deal will proceed under the UN arms embargo.
Unverified development · updated through
Khalifa Haftar’s LNA agreed to buy more than $4 billion in Pakistani arms and equipment. An earlier draft listed 16 JF-17 fighters and 12 Super Mushak trainers, but final details are unclear and questions whether the deal will proceed under the UN arms embargo.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Khalifa Haftar dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Libya
U.S. assistant- and deputy-level officials visited Libya to support efforts by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and Khalifa Haftar to resolve a dispute over central-bank leadership and oil-revenue management.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 24 DEC UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Pres. Zelensky shared the revised peace proposal that Ukraine and the U.S. have been drawing up. •The new, 20-point plan - which Zelensky called "quite solid" - calls on Russia to withdraw from some of the territory it has occupied in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone. Zelensky said Ukraine would consider pulling its troops back, too. •U.S. officials will present the new plan to Russia today, but it's bound to fall on deaf ears: Pres. Putin ignored earlier proposals that were far more slanted in his favor, so he's highly unlikely to entertain this fairer one. •Separately, a car bomb killed three people near the site in Moscow where Gen. Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated earlier this week. Russia suspects Ukraine in both attacks. VENEZUELA •U.S. forces struck a 29th alleged drug boat as part of Operation Southern Spear - this time in the eastern Pacific - killing one. IRAN •During a UN Security Council session yesterday, both Iran and the U.S. insisted they're open to reviving nuclear talks, which ended when the U.S. waged a 12-day air war on Iran's nuclear sites in June. •However, the two sides can't even agree on terms for resuming talks: the U.S. demands that Iran stop all uranium enrichment before any negotiations take place, but Iran's UN Ambassador called that pre-condition "a violation to our rights as a member of the NPT" (referring to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). YEMEN •Yemen's internationally-recognized government and the Houthi rebels they're fighting agreed to the largest prisoner swap of their 11-year civil war. •The Houthis plan to release 1,200 prisoners - including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese - in exchange for the government freeing 1,700 Houthi prisoners. •Some lauded the swap - which was mediated by the UN and the Red Cross - as a rare bright spot for diplomacy in a conflict that otherwise seems stalemated, but others worried that the deal only rewards the Houthi's strategy of detaining civilians and aid workers for use as bargaining chips in deals like this. LIBYA •Libya's army chief, Mohammed Ali Ahmed al Haddad, died along with seven others when their plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Turkey. •Al Haddad was in Turkey on a state visit where he secured Ankara's agreement to keep troops in Libya to bolster the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for another year. •Investigators are studying the cause of the crash, but an initial assessment ruled out sabotage. The GNA's enfeebled Prime Minister, Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, called it a "tragic accident," while his eastern ex-rival, Khalifa Haftar, expressed "deep sorrow over this tragic loss." (Note: I am highly skeptical. He was one of the good ones in Libya. No aircraft suddenly crashes after thirty minutes in flight unless there's a pressure activated bomb aboard )
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 December SYRIA •Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, sparked controversy during his visit to Syria yesterday when he commented that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has no intention of complying with its Spring 2025 commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year. •Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist group and wants Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's government in Damascus to do more to contain it and other Kurdish elements in Syria. •Al Sharaa's government seems reluctant to risk antagonizing either the SDF or Turkey, and thus finds itself in an awkward position between the two. •Syrian government forces briefly launched a half-hearted effort to take over some checkpoints in SDF-controlled parts of Aleppo, but quickly retreated after skirmishes that left two civilians dead. •Al Sharaa and the SDF would probably be content to maintain the status quo, and Damascus reportedly recently sent the SDF a proposal that would essentially formalize the separate arrangement they currently enjoy. •But that's unlikely to satisfy Turkey, which will probably continue to pressure al Sharaa to take a harder line against the SDF. CHINA •A new Pentagon report found that China likely loaded over 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia recently, and concluded that the move suggests Beijing isn't taking Pres. Trump's efforts to engage in denuclearization talks seriously. •Beijing continues to deny that it's aggressively modernizing its military and arms arsenal. Chinese officials have repeatedly accused reports suggesting otherwise - like the Pentagon's latest - of trying to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." •Separately, China slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports. The European Commission called the new duties unjustified. SUDAN •Sudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC). •Idris's plan is unlikely to gain traction: it calls for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps. •The RSF - which recently captured El Fasher and has the upper hand in Darfur - certainly won't entertain the idea of surrendering its gains so easily. •Idris's proposal isn't going to win U.S. backing, either. Pres. Trump has instead pushed for a humanitarian truce that the U.S. and its allies on the UNSC will support over Idris's stillborn idea. LIBYA •Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan. •Details on the finalized agreement are hazy, but an earlier draft included 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft on the LNA's shopping list. •If the deal goes through - which is a big if, since it appears to contravene the UN's arms embargo on Libya - it would be one of Pakistan's largest arms sales ever.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
Open source report