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3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Trump proposed that the United States take control of Gaza after permanently relocating approximately two million Palestinians to other countries. Egypt and Jordan rejected requests to receive them.
Unverified development · updated through
Trump proposed that the United States take control of Gaza after permanently relocating approximately two million Palestinians to other countries. Egypt and Jordan rejected requests to receive them.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Jordan dossier
3 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Rafah, Gaza
The three countries warned Israel of “dangerous consequences” if it proceeds with a planned ground invasion of Rafah.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April Israel •More details are emerging about Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel over the weekend. •Iran aimed to launch over 170 armed drones, roughly 120 ballistic missiles, and around 30 cruise missiles at Israel. •An estimated half of the ballistic missiles failed on the launch pad or on their own in flight before Israel, the U.S., the UK, France, or Jordan had a chance to intercept them. According to U.S. and Israeli officials, only five of the ballistic missiles entered Israeli territory, and none of the drones or cruise missiles did. •The WSJ published a great account of how the U.S. meticulously organized the multinational coalition that successfully defended the attack in its first live battle test. •Saudi Arabia subtly acknowledged - via an official government post citing an unnamed "source" within the royal family - that it contributed intelligence to the international effort to intercept Iran's barrage, and justified its involvement in the interest of regional stability. [Saudi also blames Iran for inciting Hamas's Oct. 7 attack that set back Saudi-Israel rapprochement, so it likely welcomed the chance to build trust with Israel by spoiling its archrival's plans.] •Israel vowed a response to Iran "at the time that we choose," and Western countries are urging restraint - as they did on Iran when Iran was weighing its options. •Separately, Hamas shared a ceasefire counterproposal with Israel via mediators. In this version, Hamas offered to release about 20 hostages - and only after Israel pauses military operations in Gaza for six weeks, lets northern Gazans return home, and frees Palestinian prisoners - including those serving life sentences for more serious crimes. The counterproposal isn't getting much press; it's not clear if Israel will give it serious consideration. Ukraine •Some Ukrainians were apparently feeling abandoned watching the U.S., UK, and France directly intervene in Israel's defense while only supporting their war against Russia at arm's length. •In contrast to the roughly 320 projectiles Iran launched at Israel, Russia launched aroud 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles, and 700 guided bombs at Ukraine in the last week alone - per Pres. Zelensky, who coolly observed: "the world has everything necessary to stop any missiles, Shahed drones, and other forms of terror." Sudan •Donors at yesterday's Paris conference committed €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in aid for Sudan's wartime humanitarian crisis. That's almost twice the fundraising goal, but the UN says Sudan and its neighbors who are hosting Sudanese refugees need more than twice the amount raised. •The UN didn't offer detail on the proposed allocation for the €2 billion raised, but said it would help "respond to the most urgent needs." Sahel •Russia isn't the only power swooping in to replace Western influence in junta-led Niger: China's state-owned CNPC signed a $400 million memorandum of understanding with the junta to sell crude oil from Agadem oilfield via an export pipeline to Cotonou, Benin that a CNPC subsidiary is building. •The junta's Minister of Economy and Finance launded the lucrative arrangement: "China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4/9 Gaza Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend. The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah. Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media). Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days. Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country. Russia Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline. Libya According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum. Afghanistan The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news. Other News March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Open source report