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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in the UAE to finalize an agreement intended to end nearly four decades of conflict.
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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in the UAE to finalize an agreement intended to end nearly four decades of conflict.
Open source reportGeography
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Ilham Aliyev dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
United Arab Emirates
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in the UAE to finalize an agreement intended to end nearly four decades of conflict.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 10 July AZERBAIJAN •Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev are meeting in the UAE today to finalize a peace deal ending almost 40 years of border wars. •Their detente is seen as a sign of Russia's waning influence in the South Caucasus: Moscow previously made itself indispensable in the region by alternately fueling and mediating border conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. •With those conflicts now largely resolved (despite sporadic ceasefire violations), Russia can no longer gain leverage by mediating them. KURDISTAN •The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a video declaring the PKK's armed insurgency against the Turkish state over, and calling on his loyal supporters to join his "voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law." •That's the same message Öcalan shared in a letter from jail in February, after which the PKK began the process of disbanding. That process continues this Friday, when some PKK fighters in Iraqi Kurdistan will hold a symbolic ceremony to destroy their weapons. •The truce still seems fragile, as Turkey hasn't formally agreed to any of the concessions Öcalan and the PKK seek, which include expanded autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. GAZA •Hamas said it agreed to release 10 hostages as a gesture of goodwill amidst ongoing ceasefire talks with Israel. However, its negotiators also complained that truce talks were "tough" because of Israel's "intransigence." KENYA •Kenya's Pres. Ruto is setting a great example for how *not* to handle peaceful protests or improve trust in government. •Many Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba, the day in 1990 when Kenyans rejected Daniel arap Moi's autocratic rule and embraced multiparty democracy. •Ruto reportedly sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.") TRADE •The Trump administration sent new letters to at least seven more countries warning them of the tariffs they face starting Aug. 1 if they don't seal bilateral trade deals with the U.S. before then. •Trump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 DEC Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,558/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,982/ton •Gold: $2,618/toz •Lead: $1,970/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.77/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.56/barrel •Zinc: $3,032/ton Russia •The State Department designated U.S. citizen Marc Fogel - a former teacher serving a 14-year sentence in Russia for drug smuggling - as "wrongfully detained." Fogel was convicted by the same court that tried Brittney Griner, and U.S. officials speculate that Russia could offer to trade Fogel in a prisoner swap - as it did with Griner. •Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev escalated a row with Russia's Pres. Putin over the downing of a passenger jet last week. Aliyev claims (and U.S. investigators concur) that Russia accidentally shot the jet down, and Putin already extended an apology for the incident; however, he refused to explicitly accept responsibility for it. Syria •Syria's new leaders claim it will take four years to organize elections. That's probably a good guess: government functions broke down over 13 years of civil war, and Syria wasn't exactly a thriving democracy before 2011 either. Other News •A Jeju Air Boeing 737-899 crashed in Muan, South Korea, killing all but two of the 181 aboard. Boeing's stock also crashed as investors wondered whether a technical malfunction caused the accident (the early investigation has focused on bird strike, though).
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