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Comments come from IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami claiming that Iranian personnel fought alongside Assad until the end but were adjusting to post-Assad realities. This is a message that Iran accepts the rebels’ victory and is abandoning Assad.
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Comments come from IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami claiming that Iranian personnel fought alongside Assad until the end but were adjusting to post-Assad realities. This is a message that Iran accepts the rebels’ victory and is abandoning Assad.
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Hossein Salami dossier
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Syria
Comments come from IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami claiming that Iranian personnel fought alongside Assad until the end but were adjusting to post-Assad realities. This is a message that Iran accepts the rebels’ victory and is abandoning Assad.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 June India •India released results from its six-week election saga yesterday, and they revealed a shock decline in support for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that exit polls had failed to predict. •The BJP still won more seats than any other party, but - for the first time since it came to power in 2014 - failed to secure the 272 seats it needed for an outright majority...far fewer than the 303 votes it won in 2019 or the "400 plus" supporters had predicted for 2024 in taunting campaign chants. •The BJP already governed within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, but because the BJP alone had enough seats for a majority after the last election, it could force its platform through without outside suport - even from coalition parties. Now it may need to make more concessions to maintain the coalition's majority. •PM Modi declared that the results had "shown immense faith" in the BJP, but his critics say the BJP's loss in seats confirmed voters' frustrations with Modi's Hindu nationalism and failure to level India's vastly unequal playing field. •Investors sold Indian stocks, fearing that Modi's mandate for implementing pro-business reforms was weakened by softened electoral support. Mexico •While the BJP's stumble in Indian elections caused India's stockmarkets to fall ~6%, Mexican stock prices fell for a related-but-opposite reason: a landslide victory by left-wing President-elect Sheinbaum offers her a mandate to extend - or even expand - her populist predecessor's anti-business policies. •Sheinbaum has been opaque about her economic policy plans. Some pro-business voices still hope she'll break with Pres. AMLO's leftist programs. Gaza •Neither Israel nor Hamas has formally responded to the ceasefire proposal the U.S. tabled on Friday. •Hamas is reportedly uncomfortable that the proposal doesn't explicitly end the war, but the U.S. is urging it (indirectly, via Qatari mediators) to accept anyway - and to trust that an amenable post-war plan will then fall into place. •Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is uncomfortable agreeing to a proposal that ends the war without destroying Hamas, since some of his right-wing coalition partners have threatened to sink his government if he agrees to the current terms. •Nonetheless, the U.S. is still hoping both sides will agree. CIA Director Burns and White House Middle East envoy McGurk traveled to Qatar to advance talks. •Separately, Slovenia's parliament voted to recognize Palestinian statehood without a referendum on the question [a 60% majority of Slovenians support recognizing Palestine and only 20% oppose it, so a referendum probably would've passed anyway]. Iran •Syrian state media previously reported that Israeli airstrikes hit targets in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Now there are semi-official reports that the Israeli strikes killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander, Saeed Abyar, and 12 militants. •The IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, swore that Israel "will pay" and "should await a response." This response will probably be more muted than Iran's direct strikes on Israel in early April. Afghanistan •Abu Dhabi's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, warmly welcomed Taliban official Sirajuddin Haqqani, who the U.S. wants to try on terrorism charges and is the subject of a $10 million U.S. arrest bounty. Despite their friendly meeting, the UAE still doesn't recognize the Taliban government - no nations have yet. Migration •Seeking to look tough on illegal immigration ahead of November elections, Pres. Biden signed an executive order that would trigger a ban on asylum applications by illegal migrants once seven-day average migrant encounters exceed 2,500. That's a low hurdle set near the current rate, so the (temporary) ban will likely be invoked very soon.
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