Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
North Korean acceptance of South Korea’s humanitarian offer could lead to the first official talks between the two governments in years.
Assessment development · updated through
North Korean acceptance of South Korea’s humanitarian offer could lead to the first official talks between the two governments in years.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Government of South Korea dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Northern regions bordering China
North Korea reported extensive flooding damage in its northern regions along the border with China.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4 June Gaza •Two far-right members of PM Netanyahu's fragile coalition - his national security minister and finance minister - threatened to bring down his government if he accepts the ceasefire deal Pres. Biden proposed. The opposing ministers say they'll refuse any deal that lets Hamas survive as a political entity. Ukraine •On Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday. A Ukrainian official observed that the S-300 "burns beautifully." Russia •Russian bots are flooding EU voters' news feeds with disinformation ahead of this weekend's election for the regional parliament. Aside from the usual fake news about Ukraine, Russian e-trolls are churning out false stories to create skepticism about liberal EU climate policies to nudge voters to support candidates who are more open to relaxing sanctions on Russia and buying more Russian gas. Iran •Iran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped." Bagheri would know: he was a lead participant in the discussions earlier this year. Sahel •Bloomberg reported that Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, is negotiating with Niger's junta to acquire French mining assets in the Sahel. Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer - with about 4% of global production last year - and the junta would be happy to sever more ties with the country's former colonial power (France) in favor of Russia, which has been sending Niger military support with few overt strings attached. North Korea •I should clarify yesterday's news about South Korea pulling out of its 2018 non-escalation pact with North Korea: the North already suspended its side of the deal and the South partially suspended it last year, so Seoul's latest move would only sever the thin remaining symbolic threads of the original pact. •The North is probably more upset about the threat of K-pop and real news blasting over the border than the South is about the trash-filled balloons floating over to its side. One analyst summarized Kim Jong Un's dilemma nicely: "Kim doesn't want his people to know about their relative deprivation and the quality of life in the free world. He is more afraid of [K-pop band] BTS than U.S. nukes." South Africa •South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about a coalition government. South Africa's stocks, bonds, and currency rose on the news that the ANC plans to work with the pro-business DA instead of a less business-friendly party like Jacob Zuma's MK. Other News •Nigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years - caused in part by Pres. Tinubu's efforts at economic reform, which included ending disastrous fuel subsidies. Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Open source report