Off Leash Intel · loading
5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 7 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The three countries signed a pact after nearly a year of negotiations, committing each member to join a collective response to an attack against any one of them.
Unverified development · updated through
The three countries signed a pact after nearly a year of negotiations, committing each member to join a collective response to an attack against any one of them.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Government of Pakistan dossier
5 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Islamabad
Pakistan increased security ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit amid concern that Baloch separatists could attempt to disrupt the meeting.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 10 August 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •A total solar eclipse will darken the skies of Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, and Spain on Wednesday. This NASA page (https://t.co/lHBqGIu6m6) shows the eclipse path and when a full or partial eclipse will be visible by location. •Zambia will vote in presidential and assembly elections on Thursday. President Hakainde Hichilema looks likely to win re-election, but Brian Mundubile's energetic opposition campaign has gained steam in recent weeks. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,280/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,242/ton •Bitcoin: $64,976 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $14,076/ton - U.S. futures hit a record high last week as supply disruptions drove worried buyers to hoard stocks to meet persistent demand from new technologies. •Ethereum: $1,916 •Gold: $4,339/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.76/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.53/barrel •Zinc: $3,707/ton GAZA •Israel formally rejected the 15-point disarmament plan that the Trump administration put forth - and Hamas agreed to - late last month. •Israel's rejection represented a rare break from Pres. Trump for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is up for re-election in October. Netanyahu has likely calculated that his far-right support base would abandon him if he were to take Hamas's word that it will disarm and agree to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza first. IRAN •Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first. •Tehran's demands are the same concessions it's been seeking from the U.S. throughout negotiations: it wants the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iran, withdraw its military from the region, pay war reparations, release frozen Iranian funds, and pledge to never again attack Iran or its allies / proxies. •The White House didn't immediately respond to Iran's latest list of requirements, but Pres. Trump is unlikely to concede on all of those points just to reopen the Strait. He will want to keep some leverage to achieve other objectives in future negotiations - such as securing Iran's agreement to give up its highly enriched uranium. He may, though, make temporary or partial concessions like those offered in the June MOU. •Trump told reporters yesterday that he's not in a rush to reach a deal with Iran. Rather, he said, his negotiators are "low-keying it" and "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, which he believes will need to make a deal to stop runaway inflation and end a dire cash shortage. YEMEN •Yemen's struggling, internationally-recognized government retaliated against the Houthi rebels who reopened their long-simmering civil war with fresh attacks on government positions last week. •The Houthis control much of northern Yemen, and likely spied an opportunity to wrest more of the resource-rich south from government control while simultaneously enforcing a Red Sea blockade and mounting attacks on Saudi Arabia, which backs the government. DEFENSE •Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye signed a trilateral mutual defense pact after spending almost a year negotiating it. •Under the pact, members commit to joining forces to retaliate together against any attack against one of them. That clause seems like a big win for Saudi, which has the weakest military and faces the most imminent security threats of the three. •Turkish officials said the alliance would be open to welcoming more members in the future. Analysts suggest Egypt would be a good fit.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April IRAN •Just 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce. •Iran pledged to reopen the Strait and both sides agreed to join talks towards a more lasting peace, which will start in Islamabad on Friday. •Axios reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, personally backed and blessed the deal. That suggests Khamenei - who holds his cards close but is thought to be a hardliner - has a pragmatic side too. •Investors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait. LEBANON •Israel said the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran does not include Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Hezbollah targets there. •Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S.-Iran agreement does include Lebanon. Lebanon's economy minister complained of "mixed signals." IRAQ •Kataib Hezbollah freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson yesterday - one week after kidnapping her in Baghdad. •The group apparently abducted Kittleson in order to use her as a bargaining chip to win the release of some of its members from Iraqi jails, and it worked: several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members were freed yesterday, too. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan have been quietly engaging in peace talks in the western Chinese city of Urumqi this week. •Kabul called the talks "useful," but it sounds like both sides merely repeated the same tired accusations and demands they've been making for decades. •The only thing that China's Foreign Ministry could claim that this summit achieved was a vague alignment on "media coverage" (and the fact that it offered no further details on what that means shows how little alignment there really was). NORTH KOREA •North Korean state media published photos of Kim Jong Un's daughter and presumed successor, Kim Ju-ae, driving a tank during a military exercise. •Pyongyang's propaganda is always carefully crafted to send a specific message. These images of Ju-ae in military motifs are likely intended to convey that - despite being female in a deeply patriarchal society - she has the legitimacy to succeed her male ancestors. [They also show that North Korea has a low driving age: Ju-ae is thought to be just 13.] SPACE •NASA's Artemis II mission beamed some spectacular images from its lunar flyby back to Earth yesterday. You can see them here: https://t.co/6IqxEqVCCH.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day. •It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers. •This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week. •OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,296/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,471 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,195/ton •Ethereum: $2,065 •Gold: $4,542/toz •Lead: $1,897/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel •Zinc: $3,115/ton IRAN •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks. •But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub. •Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire." •Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel. •The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it. YEMEN •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago. •Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle. •The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint. DRC •Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT. •In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out. •Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict. •For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair." •Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 March IRAN •Pres. Trump demanded that Iran's regime reconsider the 15-point peace proposal it rejected this week, and warned that if they don't then "we'll just keep blowing them out of the water." •Trump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum. •Meanwhile, Israel took a more direct approach and assassinated Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval commander who led Iran's blockade and boasted about its success on X. •Iran has reportedly started charging some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening. RUSSIA •Citing Western intelligence, The Financial Times reported that Russia is "close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran." The drones are thought to be upgraded versions of the Shahed-136s Iran sent to Russia in 2022 with improved navigation systems and a new name: Geran-2. •The Kremlin denounced reports that it's arming Iran as "false information," which means it's probably true information. The NYT reported that "Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine." •Separately, Pres. Putin assembled a group of oligarchs yesterday to ask them to donate part of their largesse to help fund the war effort. At least two quickly agreed. •It was the first time Putin has directly asked Russian tycoons for help, but not the first time their companies have been shaken down to fill the war chest: some of them paid a 10% one-time windfall tax in 2023, and VAT went up by 2% (to 22%) in January. But those measures alone will only raise about one trillion rubles; Putin's war cost 13 trillion rubles last year alone. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. •Many analysts would agree with Zelensky's assessment that Trump "still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side." •Ukraine ceding control of that strip of the Donbas was one of Russia's firm conditions for ending the war, so by trading U.S. security guarantees for it, Trump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Immediately after their temporary Eid ceasefire ended, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed attacks. Pakistani strikes killed two in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan vowed an "appropriate response." Few expected the brief truce to last beyond the holiday period.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 11 October Middle East •Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah leader, Wafiq Safa, with an airstrike on central Beirut that killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 117 more. •Israel has often had a fairly high tolerance for civilian casualties in pursuit of its enemies' leadership, but now that it's taken out all of Hezbollah's top officials and is chasing increasingly low-level targets, its heavy-handed tactics are creating fresh resentment. A Beiruti whose apartment was destroyed in the blast told WaPo: "I am a moderate, but after this I am with Hezbollah. They are pushing me to be with the resistance." •Separately (but relatedly), the UN complained that Israeli troops fired on its peacekeepers in Lebanon twice in the last two days. Iran •Iran preemptively warned Israel that a strike on its nuclear facilities would violate "global red lines." •This seems like part of a propaganda blitz that Long War Journal describes as "a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs." •Russia's Pres. Putin met Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian in a hastily-arranged sidebar during a conference in Turkmenistan today. Pezeshkian likely hopes to get Putin's blessing for Iran to buy advanced Russian weapons like Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems that Iran has long sought. Pakistan •Heavily-armed insurgents attacked coal mines in the Duki district of Balochistan, apparently targeting minority ethnic Pashtuns - at least 20 of whom died - and destroying mining machinery. •Local officials blamed Baloch separatists who have been intensifying their attacks on outsiders they perceive as threats to their quest for an independent state - like the Chinese engineers they killed with a suicide car bomb in Karachi on Monday. •The Pakistani government has ramped up security ahead of next week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Islamabad - lest Baloch separatists try to disrupt the talks. Ukraine •Ukraine's Parliament approved a major tax hike that will supplement increasingly hesitant donor contributions for its war effort. Personal income tax will nearly quadruple (from 1.5% to 5.0%) and bank profits will be retroactively taxed at double their previous rate of 25%. Much of the funds raised will go towards the war: military spending is currently over half the country's $100 billion annual budget. •Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchyna died in Russian detention, aged 27. Russia captured her in occupied eastern Ukraine in August 2023 and has released little information about why she was arrested or where in Russia she was being held. The Ukrainian journalists union is seeking to find out how and when she died. Other News •The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded this year's peace prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, for "its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons." •The chair of the award committee noted that its choice recognized that the "taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is under pressure" at present, which some media read as a rebuke on Russia's lowered threshold for using its nukes.
Open source report