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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
President-elect Donald Trump intended to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning on his first day in office, linking the measures to drugs and unauthorized migration. Canada, Mexico and China objected, with China warning that no one would win a trade or tariff war.
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President-elect Donald Trump intended to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning on his first day in office, linking the measures to drugs and unauthorized migration. Canada, Mexico and China objected, with China warning that no one would win a trade or tariff war.
Open source reportGeography
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Government of Canada dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Canada
Canada explicitly accused Indian Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah of orchestrating the killing of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil. It adds that India had not responded at the time of the update.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 October Ukraine •The NYT wrote that Pres. Zelensky's failure to win Western support for his victory plan "could lead to a kind of success, allowing the president to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can and to prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal." That's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies. •Separately, Ukraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops. Russian soldiers on the hacked calls complained that they lacked enough commanders to lead the integrated units - or enough ammunition and weapons to arm the new recruits. •The intercepts also revealed that Russia has assigned one translator and three Russian soldiers for every 30 North Koreans joining the war; however, some frustrated calls complained that one translator isn't enough for 30 North Koreans. India •Canada's government escalated its charges that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil last year by explicitly accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, of orchestrating the hit. •Canada's accusation is especially serious given that Shah is a close ally of PM Modi and widely considered to be the second-most powerful figure in Modi's government. India hasn't responded yet. Iran •New satellite images from Planet Labs suggest that Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend did more damage than Iran let on. Several struck key military sites, including three of the four sites where the IRGC produces missiles (the extent of the damage to each isn't yet clear). •Iran's leaders may have felt compelled to downplay the significance of Israel's assault to mask its defensive shortcomings and justify a tactical decision not to re-retaliate against a stronger enemy. Gaza •Israel and Qatari mediators are reportedly reviewing a proposal to open a month-long truce in exchange for the release of 11-14 hostages - including all remaining women and children in Hamas captivity. That's a slightly bolder proposal than the Egyptian plan currently on the table, but it still stops short of the permanent ceasefire Hamas is thought to be seeking. Libya •Austrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Libya's NOC - which has been pushing foreign oil firms to resume drilling - cheered the news. Guyana •Guyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales. Guyana has enjoyed the world's fastest year-on-year GDP growth thanks to its oil proceeds. DRC •China's CMOC announced its third-quarter results, and they showed that cobalt production from the company's DRC mines had already surpassed its annual target of 60,000 to 70,000 tons by far: in just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
Open source report