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The market snapshot lists gold at $3,472 per troy ounce, WTI crude at $64.64 per barrel and Nymex natural gas at $3.03 per MMBtu, alongside several industrial-metal and cryptocurrency prices.
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The market snapshot lists gold at $3,472 per troy ounce, WTI crude at $64.64 per barrel and Nymex natural gas at $3.03 per MMBtu, alongside several industrial-metal and cryptocurrency prices.
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United States
The House will consider the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. The measures are addressing stablecoins, dividing cryptocurrency oversight between the SEC and CFTC, and barring the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 1 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Labor Day in the U.S. Over 150 countries celebrate a similar holiday on International Workers' Day (May 1), but the U.S. chose a different date to distance its commemoration from the May 4 anniversary of the Haymarket Affair, in which anarchists and socialists infused the struggle for labor rights with violence. •Guyana votes for president today. The incumbent, Irfaan Ali, is favored to win, but he faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon's contract to reward voters with an even greater share of the spoils of their country's oil bonanza than the $7.5 billion the state received under Ali. •On Wednesday, China will host a Victory Day parade. North Korea's Kim Jong Un will attend, and prepared for his trip by visiting a new North Korean missile production line to practice being impressed by military kit. •In what will certainly be a less ostentatious affair than China's parade, Norway votes for parliament next Monday, Sep. 8. The Labour Party's coalition of left-leaning parties has a slight lead over a right-leaning coalition led by the populist Progress Party and the center-right Conservative Party. A less likely - but more interesting - outcome than an outright victory by either coalition could see the Labour and Conservative Parties each ditch their fringe coalition partners and form an unprecedented centrist coalition. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,616/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,575 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,902/ton •Ethereum: $4,391 •Gold: $3,472/toz - near record highs on concerns about stubborn U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's independence following Pres. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.03/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.64/barrel •Zinc: $2,819/ton AFGHANISTAN •A shallow (i.e., worse), 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan near the border with Pakistan, killing at least 600 - and probably far more. •The quake's timing was terrible: Afghanistan's hospitals were already underequipped and understaffed before the U.S. suspended foreign aid funding earlier this year, and the population they serve has expanded by over two million in recent months as Pakistan and Iran both evicted Afghan nationals. •Even more Afghan deportees are on their way home now, since today is Pakistan's deadline for them to leave or face arrest. YEMEN •An Israeli strike last Thursday killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi and several other senior Houthi bureaucrats, but the Houthis' military leadership - who really run the show - weren't part of the meeting that was targeted, and vowed revenge. •Analysts say the already-hawkish Houthi military leadership is likely to nurture its extremist tendencies now that there will be fewer comparatively pragmatic voices around to advocate for moderation - and with Iran weakened and less able to stand up for its proxies. GAZA •An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed Abu Obeida, who served as Hamas's military spokesman and was one of its last surviving senior leaders. •Israel believes the remaining few surviving Hamas leaders - including its current chief in Gaza, Ezzedin Al Haddad - are holed up among hostages in Gaza City, which will be the focus of Israel's imminent offensive. UKRAINE •Andriy Parubiy, a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closer ties with the European Union, was assassinated in Lviv on Saturday. Ukrainian police quickly arrested a suspect and alleged a "Russian trace" behind the killing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15July CRYPTOCURRENCY •The main factor driving crypto prices to record highs over the weekend was optimism about a trio of crypto-friendly bills that the U.S. House will consider this week (which House Republicans have dubbed "Crypto Week." Here are the headlines for each: oThe GENIUS Act establishes a rather light regulatory stance on stablecoins like Tether (USDT) that are pegged to fiat currencies. The Senate has already approved it, and the House is expected to pass it this week. oThe CLARITY Act would split regulatory authority for cryptocurrencies between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which would regulate security-like tokens, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which would regulate commodity-like tokens - presumably with a lighter touch. oThe Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would preemptively ban the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Crypto advocates like this because it keeps the government out of the industry. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Pres. Trump has made no secret of his frustration with his Russian counterpart's recalcitrance lately. Yesterday, he said the U.S. would aid the other side of Pres. Putin's war by helping Europe send more weapons to Ukraine. He also threatened "very severe tariffs" if Putin doesn't agree to a peace deal within 50 days. •The most severe tariffs that Trump could slap on Putin aren't direct levies: Russia exports little to the U.S., thanks to increasingly severe sanctions over Putin's war with Ukraine. •Rather, the most punishing new tariffs Trump could impose on Russia are indirect ones that penalize other countries that are still trading with it, leaving Moscow with even fewer willing trading partners. •Meanwhile in Ukraine, Pres. Zelensky said he plans to nominate first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko to replace longstanding prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who will become defense minister. Zelensky cited the need to "renew" the government amidst stalled peace talks and mounting public cynicism about the government. SYRIA •Over 50 people have now died in Druze-Bedouin violence in Sweida, southern Syria. •Syria's new government has repeatedly pledged to protect the rights of minority groups like the Druze, but its critics say those pledges are either a disingenuous effort to rebrand the ex-jihadists' image or an excuse to grab power in southern Druze areas where they lack control. Or both. •Interior Minister Anas Khattab added weight to the latter criticism in a social media post citing "the absence of state institutions" in Sweida as "a primary reason for the ongoing tensions," and concluding that "[t]here is no solution to this except by imposing security" on the region. •Thus, the government moved troops south to "quickly and decisively" quash the violence, siding mostly with the Bedouin (who share Syria's leaders' Sunni faith) and against the Druze. Instead, armed Druze quickly and decisively attacked the government troops, who comprised nearly half of yesterday's casualties. •Israel joined the Druze in firing at the incoming Syrian tanks. Israel's defense minister said the airstrikes sent a "clear warning" that Israel - which is home to a large and militarily active Druze minority - "will not allow harm to come to the Druze in Syria." Israel's quieter secondary motive is to prevent Syrian forces it doesn't trust from filling the power gap in the south and amassing arms and troops along the Israeli-Syrian border. CHINA •New Chinese data showed 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter. That was better than analysts had expected, suggesting that Beijing's consumer subsidies, monetary easing, and infrastructure spending successfully offset the negative effects of higher U.S. tariffs. •Separately, China introduced a new "digital ID" program today. The government says the program will improve "information security," but privacy advocates say it will facilitate 1/2
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