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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
President Daniel Chapo signed an agreement with rival parties intended to end challenges to his election victory, but excluded opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane. Mondlane called for protests and police subsequently injured at least 16 demonstrators with live fire.
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President Daniel Chapo signed an agreement with rival parties intended to end challenges to his election victory, but excluded opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane. Mondlane called for protests and police subsequently injured at least 16 demonstrators with live fire.
Open source reportGeography
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Daniel Chapo dossier
5 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s electoral commission declared Frelimo candidate Daniel Chapo president-elect with 71% of the official vote. Opposition fraud allegations and a call by Venâncio Mondlane to “paralyse the country,” amid suspicions intensified by the killing of his lawyer.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 6 March UKRAINE AND EUROPE •Days after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too. •Ukraine has access to other sources of intelligence and the U.S. provides only 20% of its military support, so the U.S. suspensions won't immediately turn the tide of the war. A Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course." •U.S. officials told the NYT that the suspensions are intended to last for just a week or two to nudge Pres. Zelensky to - as the NYT Kyiv bureau chief put it - "agree to [Pres. Trump's ceasefire] terms in advance, without knowing what they are." •Meanwhile, France's Pres. Macron continues to step up to fill the leadership vacuum left behind as the U.S. retreats from Ukraine. Macron said yesterday that France is open to the idea of extending the protection of its nuclear umbrella to its European allies. [France and the UK are the only European countries with nukes.] GAZA •Reuters reported that U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler met directly with Hamas representatives in Qatar in recent weeks to demand the release of the only surviving Israeli-American hostage and the return of the remains of four other dual citizen hostages who died in captivity. •Axios reported separately that Boehler's discussions with Hamas were mainly focused on securing the release of U.S. citizen hostages - which is well within Boehler's purview as a hostage envoy - but also touched on the potential for a long-term truce, which Hamas would want to secure in exchange for freeing the hostages. •It was believed to be the first time U.S. officials have directly engaged with Hamas, which the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. •Pres. Trump then doubled down on Boehler's demands with a Truth Social post directed at Hamas, ordering it to "release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you." MOZAMBIQUE •Yesterday, Mozambique's Pres. Chapo signed an agreement with rival political parties ending their challenge against his election victory and quelling the violent protests resulting from it. •However, he excluded his chief rival, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, from the process. Mondlane called his supporters to the streets to protest against Chapo and his government in response, and police injured at least 16 protesters with live fire. So much for quelling violent protests. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's police arrested oil minister Puot Kang Chol and the opposition SPLM-IO's military leader, Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, this week. Both Chol and Lam are allies of Vice Pres. Machar, whose long-standing feud with Pres. Kiir has re-escalated in recent months. •The BBC reported that Kiir has ordered the arrest of all senior military commanders allied with Machar, and watchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war. TRADE •Pres. Trump agreed to a one-month reprieve on tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. after a call with auto executives on Tuesday. In return, GM, Ford, and Stellantis agreed to move more of their production to the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOff leash update 24 Dec Mozambique •Mozambique's highest court reaffirmed official election results naming the ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, the new president. •Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second and fled the country just after the poll - had threatened a "new popular uprising" if the court didn't reverse results in his favor, and called on his supporters to stage new protests after the court's decision yesterday. They complied, turning out in droves to chant his name and throw rocks at police. Gaza and Yemen •Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers that "some progress" had been made towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but added "I don't know how long it will take." •Meanwhile, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly acknowledged that Israel was behind the July assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was always widely assumed that Israel was responsible, but this is the first time an Israeli official confirmed it. •Katz's comment on Haniyeh came in the context of a threat to Houthi leaders: "We will strike hard at the Houthis ... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa." •The Houthis lobbed another ballistic missile towards Israel - their third in under a week - and vowed to keep firing "until the aggression against our people in Gaza stops." This missile was easily intercepted - though some Israelis suffered injuries while fleeing to shelter. Syria •Jordanian and Qatari diplomats visited Damascus to court Syria's new leaders. Most Arab countries broke ties with Assad after his 2011 crackdown on dissent, but they now see Syria's transition as a chance to rebuild relations with the new government. •Armed men torched a Christmas tree in the mostly-Christian Syrian town of Suqaylabiyah, and it sparked an uproar among Christians and other minority groups in Syria, who are skeptically waiting to see if the former Islamists now running the country will do as much as they've promised to preserve minority rights. •The UN's International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria - which was founded in 2016 to investigate ex-Pres. Assad's war crimes - said Syria's new government is "very receptive" to its efforts to gather evidence against Assad. Of course it is: many of Assad's worst crimes targeted rebels like them. North Korea •U.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin - who Kim has called his "closest comrade" - on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help. •That's a shift from the initial narrative, which suggested Putin pleaded for Kim's help because he was suffering high casualty rates in Ukraine and desperately needed more soldiers (it now seems the North Koreans in Ukraine are being plucked off quickly, so they're proving to be poor reinforcements anyway). Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's loyal Attorney General, Tarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released in a belated Christmas gift (Christmas began Oct. 1 in Venezuela, per Maduro's decree). •Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners - of the ~2,000 arrested during Maduro's post-election crackdown - but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count. Other News •El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, overturned a years long ban on mining in the country and expressed hope that rich gold reserves could "transform" the economy. Environmentalists are appalled. •Earlier today, NASA's unmanned Parker Solar Probe flew closer to the sun than any earthman-made spacecraft has before, coming within 3.8 million miles (6.1 million km) of the star's surface.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct North Korea •U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege). •SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."] •North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative." Turkey •Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four. •Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians. •The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence. •Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal. •That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal. Afghanistan •Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief. •Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed. Venezuela •The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. •In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country." Mozambique •Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote. •The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
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