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U.S. prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine current or former Mexican officials for helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs and evade arrests. Rocha denied the allegations and accused the United States of violating Mexican sovereignty, while assessing that the episode creates a diplomatic challenge for President Claudia Sheinbaum.
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U.S. prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine current or former Mexican officials for helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs and evade arrests. Rocha denied the allegations and accused the United States of violating Mexican sovereignty, while assessing that the episode creates a diplomatic challenge for President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Claudia Sheinbaum dossier
4 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mexico
Election officials called the presidential vote for Morena candidate Claudia Sheinbaum. Morena may have secured a two-thirds majority, while assessing that Sheinbaum’s intended degree of continuity with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador remains unclear.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 30 April MALI •Mali's junta leader, Assimi Goita, made his first public appearance since Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks that killed or wounded several of Goita's top brass and sent the rest - including Goita - into hiding. •In his address, Goita unconvincingly claimed that "the situation is under control" and vowed to pursue "the complete neutralization of the groups involved." •Local reports suggest the situation is decidedly not under control - at least not under the government's control. •JNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA, which now has its sights on the eponymous regional capitals. •Meanwhile, fighters from JNIM's jihadist rival, Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP), took advantage of the chaos to cross the unguarded border from Niger and briefly capture the northeastern town of Menaka before the army reasserted control. IRAN •Pres. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the war and both Hormuz blockades but postpone nuclear negotiations for later, and instead warned Iran to "get smart soon" amidst stalled talks. •The longer it takes Iran to "get smart," the more it will cost U.S. taxpayers. Yesterday, the Pentagon's comptroller released its first public estimate of the cost of the war to date: $25 billion. •Analysts believe that figure is too low, and the Pentagon acknowledges that it does not include the costs of repairing extensive damage to U.S. bases in the region, which the Pentagon hopes "our partners also might contribute a share for." •The Center for Strategic and International Studies thinks munitions alone have cost the U.S. about $25 billion so far, and other experts estimate the total cost to date at between $40 and $50 billion - up to double the Pentagon's accounting. TERROR FOR HIRE •The Iran-linked group Harakat Ashab al Yamin al Islamia claimed credit for a stabbing attack in the London suburb of Golders Green that wounded two Jewish men. •The group has now claimed over a dozen attacks in Europe - most, like this one, targeting Jewish people and sites. •In all recent cases, the perpetrators appear to be "vandals for hire" recruited on social media - as opposed to Iranian agents or ideologically-motivated sympathizers. [Russia has adopted a similar recruiting playbook for recent foreign sabotage plots in Europe.] •It's a clever operating model. Amateur local recruits are more likely to botch the operation they were hired to carry out, but - as The Economist points out - "even an unsuccessful operation is likely to create fear and confusion." Plus, Iran doesn't have to risk its agents when it hires local sub-contractors to do their job. UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday - their 12th call since Trump's return to office - and afterwards floated the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Russia's Victory Day on May 9. •Ukraine cautiously welcomed the idea, but said it would need to better understand the details before it could agree to a proposal that Trump and Putin came up with. VENEZUELA •In another sign of the warming relationship between Washington and the new government in Caracas, American Airlines plans to resume daily direct passenger flights between Miami and Caracas today, after a seven-year hiatus. •Tickets for the 76-seat flight sold out quickly, and American plans to add a second daily round-trip between Miami and Caracas from May 21. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups. •Kiir is rumored to be both ill and sharply distrustful of those around him - many of whom are jostling to replace him when he dies or is ousted, lending credence to his distrust. •But after sacking so many of his deputies over questions of loyalty, he's left with a corrupt and bungling administration that appoints dead men to office and runs the country's only international airport into the ground. MEXICO •U.S. prosecutors indicted the governor of Mexico's Sinaloa state, Rubén Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former Mexican officials on charges related to helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs into the U.S. and avoid arrest for doing so. •Rocha called the charges "entirely false and without foundation" and accused the U.S. of violating Mexico's sovereignty and causing trouble for its ruling leftist Morena party, of which he is a member. [Some would say Rocha is the one causing trouble for Morena by doing things that led to numerous corruption allegations.] •Either way, the episode puts Pres. Sheinbaum in a pickle. She works hard to keep a cordial relationship with Pres. Trump while defending Mexico's sovereignty. •Her deputies have asked their U.S. counterparts for advance notice of charges against sitting Morena officials so they can manage the fallout. It's not clear if they were notified in advance about Rocha's indictment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 March 2025 SYRIA •Armed loyalists to deposed dictator Bashar al Assad - including many from Assad's minority Alawite sect - have been giving Syria's new government - largely comprised of former Sunni Islamists - a headache. •As is often the case in Syria, reporting is murky and it's hard to tell what actually happened and in what sequence. Officials said police carried out a successful operation in Jableh yesterday to arrest Gen. Ibrahim Huweija - a former henchman of Assad's father and a suspect in the 1977 murder of Lebanese Druze leader Kamal Bek Jumblatt. •But police faced fierce resistance from pro-Assad gunmen - perhaps led by Assad's "favorite soldier," Suheil al Hassan - that escalated into multiple clashes in villages across Latakia province, leaving 80 dead (by one report). There are separate reports that Assadists took control of the former dictator's hometown of Qardaha in the scuffle. •The government imposed a nighttime curfew and sent reinforcements - including helicopter gunships - to Latakia, while begging Syrians to refrain from "raising sectarian sentiments." EUROPE AND UKRAINE •All 27 European leaders approved proposals to "facilitate significant defense spending at national level in all Member States" after a summit yesterday. •All of them except Hungary's Prime Minister Orban approved a separate measure reaffirming "Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." Orban abstained and instead said that Hungary would conduct a non-binding mail-in poll on allowing Ukraine to join the EU. [Orban made his position on that question clear to voters in a public statement declaring that Ukraine's accession to the EU "will destroy Hungarian farmers and Hungarian agriculture; ... it will destroy the entire Hungarian national economy, and I have no idea how we will control the crime that will flood into Hungary with this."] •Separately, the European Space Agency's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, successfully carried out its first commercial mission yesterday with the launch of a French military reconnaissance satellite. The EU previously depended on Russia's Soyuz rockets to put large satellites into orbit, but that arrangement ended in 2022 with the start of the Ukraine war. Now the EU has its own, independent launch capabilities. TRADE •Pres. Trump announced another reprieve on tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods after the levies imposed this week caused stock markets to tumble. •Now goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that Trump enacted during his first term will be exempt from the new 25% tariffs for one month. •The White House estimates that around 38% of Canadian imports and 50% of Mexican imports are covered by USMCA and will thus be exempt until April 2, when Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners. •Pres. Sheinbaum of Mexico and Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada are still lobbying for a permanent reprieve. •China, meanwhile, has refused to bargain over the additional 10% tariffs applied to Chinese imports to the U.S. this week. Instead, Beijing warned that it will fight "any type of war" with the U.S. - including a trade war. So the new 10% added tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in place. CRYPTO •Prices for the five cryptocurrencies that will be included in the new U.S. strategic crypto reserve - BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA - dropped after the final order forming the reserve said it would be formed from the U.S. government's existing crypto holdings - and not from new purchases, as investors had expected.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 June India •India released results from its six-week election saga yesterday, and they revealed a shock decline in support for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that exit polls had failed to predict. •The BJP still won more seats than any other party, but - for the first time since it came to power in 2014 - failed to secure the 272 seats it needed for an outright majority...far fewer than the 303 votes it won in 2019 or the "400 plus" supporters had predicted for 2024 in taunting campaign chants. •The BJP already governed within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, but because the BJP alone had enough seats for a majority after the last election, it could force its platform through without outside suport - even from coalition parties. Now it may need to make more concessions to maintain the coalition's majority. •PM Modi declared that the results had "shown immense faith" in the BJP, but his critics say the BJP's loss in seats confirmed voters' frustrations with Modi's Hindu nationalism and failure to level India's vastly unequal playing field. •Investors sold Indian stocks, fearing that Modi's mandate for implementing pro-business reforms was weakened by softened electoral support. Mexico •While the BJP's stumble in Indian elections caused India's stockmarkets to fall ~6%, Mexican stock prices fell for a related-but-opposite reason: a landslide victory by left-wing President-elect Sheinbaum offers her a mandate to extend - or even expand - her populist predecessor's anti-business policies. •Sheinbaum has been opaque about her economic policy plans. Some pro-business voices still hope she'll break with Pres. AMLO's leftist programs. Gaza •Neither Israel nor Hamas has formally responded to the ceasefire proposal the U.S. tabled on Friday. •Hamas is reportedly uncomfortable that the proposal doesn't explicitly end the war, but the U.S. is urging it (indirectly, via Qatari mediators) to accept anyway - and to trust that an amenable post-war plan will then fall into place. •Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is uncomfortable agreeing to a proposal that ends the war without destroying Hamas, since some of his right-wing coalition partners have threatened to sink his government if he agrees to the current terms. •Nonetheless, the U.S. is still hoping both sides will agree. CIA Director Burns and White House Middle East envoy McGurk traveled to Qatar to advance talks. •Separately, Slovenia's parliament voted to recognize Palestinian statehood without a referendum on the question [a 60% majority of Slovenians support recognizing Palestine and only 20% oppose it, so a referendum probably would've passed anyway]. Iran •Syrian state media previously reported that Israeli airstrikes hit targets in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Now there are semi-official reports that the Israeli strikes killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander, Saeed Abyar, and 12 militants. •The IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, swore that Israel "will pay" and "should await a response." This response will probably be more muted than Iran's direct strikes on Israel in early April. Afghanistan •Abu Dhabi's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, warmly welcomed Taliban official Sirajuddin Haqqani, who the U.S. wants to try on terrorism charges and is the subject of a $10 million U.S. arrest bounty. Despite their friendly meeting, the UAE still doesn't recognize the Taliban government - no nations have yet. Migration •Seeking to look tough on illegal immigration ahead of November elections, Pres. Biden signed an executive order that would trigger a ban on asylum applications by illegal migrants once seven-day average migrant encounters exceed 2,500. That's a low hurdle set near the current rate, so the (temporary) ban will likely be invoked very soon.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
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