Canadian intelligence

Iran decision pressure, India-Canada reset, and proposed DRC truce

Off Leash update 19 June IRAN •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei bluntly rejected Pres. Trump's call for "unconditional surrender," and instead threatened "irreparable" harm to the U.S. if it joins the fray. Despite Khamenei's fiery rhetoric, Iran's cooler-headed diplomats still insist that Tehran remains open to negotiations with the U.S. •Trump remained vague about whether the U.S. would, indeed, accede to Israel's request to join its side of the conflict, leaving the door open to negotiations: "I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change." [The WSJ reported that Trump privately approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to see if Iran offers to return to the nuclear negotiating table before he gives his final approval to attack.] •According to media reports, Israel particularly wants the U.S.'s help - as well as its 30,000-lb. bunker-buster bombs and B-2 bombers to drop them from - to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Israel has neither strong enough bombs nor bombers to carry them; U.S. has both within range of Iran. •Doves opposed to U.S. involvement are invoking memories of ill-fated U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to advocate against joining. INDIA •India's Pres. Modi met new Canadian Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit Carney hosted this week. •Modi and Carney agreed to restart trade talks and restore diplomatic representation and visa processing, which is a step towards repairing the damage their bilateral relationship suffered when Canada accused India's government of backing the assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver two years ago. •The very next day, Canadian intelligence published a report calling India a perpetrator of foreign influence for its involvement in Najjar's assassination - and dozens of other alleged plots the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have disrupted against Sikhs in Canada. [The report seems like a compromise to Canadian Sikhs who were angry that Carney would rekindle relations with a government that violated its sovereignty to carry out assassinations; India blew off the criticism and it didn't seem to hurt fragile-but-improving bilateral relations.] DRC •Rwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27). •Prior ceasefires have fallen through quickly - some before they were even signed - but the outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.