Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
That Beijing is seeking to supplant Washington is the principal mediator between Thailand and Cambodia and interprets a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement as contrasting China’s approach with that of the United States.
Assessment development · updated through
That Beijing is seeking to supplant Washington is the principal mediator between Thailand and Cambodia and interprets a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement as contrasting China’s approach with that of the United States.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Cambodia dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
China
China hosted talks on December 29-30 concerning a more permanent Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire after Trump claimed a role in securing an initial 72-hour truce.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 30 Dec VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock allegedly used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela. •Trump declined to share more details, and Nicolas Maduro's government has only referred to the incident obliquely - perhaps to downplay concerns about escalation and calls for retaliation. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear boat strike in the eastern Pacific killed two yesterday. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise in the interest of resolving the remaining bigger differences of position. •Rumors suggest Trump may next host a new round of negotiations next month with Zelensky as well as European leaders (some of whom joined by phone this time). ISRAEL •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Pres. Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday for talks that were amiable but produced no big breakthroughs on Trump's Gaza peace plan. •Netanyahu secured one key win, though: he got Trump's assurance that the U.S. would back Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran continues to develop its weapons programs. IRAN •Protesters demonstrated in Tehran yesterday against rising inflation after preliminary December data showed an annualized inflation rate of 42.2%. •Pres. Pezeshkian has repeatedly conceded that he's out of ideas to fix Iran's ailing economy, and the resignation of his central bank chief yesterday certainly won't help. •An academic paraphrased in the NYT sees two ways Iran can escape the looming inflationary spiral: "It could change its relationship with the United States in exchange for relief on sanctions...or drastically cut government spending, but neither option appears likely." Instead, further inflation seems more probable. CHINA •China is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia. After Pres. Trump claimed a role in closing the initial 72-hour truce, China stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today. •Beijing's foreign ministry implicitly boasted that its mediation style was less pushy than the U.S. approach: "China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds."
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Dec VENEZUELA •Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up. •A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years. •Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September. •A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions. DRC •Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control. •Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House. •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation." •Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC. •Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework. •Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules. •Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power). •Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions. •So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week. •Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models. •The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.) •Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 Nov PAKISTAN •The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) belatedly claimed yesterday's courthouse blast in Islamabad and said it was targeting "[j]udges, lawyers and officials who carried out rulings under Pakistan’s un-Islamic laws." •It was the first major attack inside the heavily-guarded Pakistani capital in over 10 years. •Defense Minister Khawaja Asif called it a "wake-up call" to the threat the TTP poses to the country, and declared a "state of war" extending beyond the border areas where the army is already battling the TTP. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy has sent the USS Gerald Ford - its most advanced aircraft carrier - to the Caribbean to join the ongoing mobilization in the seas around Venezuela, cutting its previous mission to the Mediterranean short by several months. •The Ford will add 5,500 troops to the 10,000-strong U.S. force that has Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro worried for his illegitimate regime. •Aware that he's outgunned by a stronger force with superior technology, Maduro is reportedly trying to inspire a guerrilla-style resistance in case of a U.S. land attack. It's unclear how much of his military would stand by him if his rule was threatened and they were no longer being coerced into loyalty. •Separately, CNN reported that the UK disagrees with the extrajudicial strikes the U.S. force has been carrying out against suspected drug trafficking boats in the region, and stopped sharing relevant intelligence with the U.S. soon after the strikes began. That won't hinder U.S. strikes, though: the UK provides only a small slice of the intelligence the U.S. has used in its 19 strikes to date. WEST BANK •Israeli police arrested four Jewish extremists who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank and then assaulted Israeli soldiers in a nearby industrial zone. •There's been a recent rise in extremist attacks on West Bank Palestinians: the UN logged 264 attacks causing casualties, property damage, or both in October - more than in any other month in almost 20 years. •But yesterday's incidents were unusual in that the perpetrators were arrested and Pres. Herzog publicly condemned the violence for targeting soldiers too: "Such violence against civilians and against IDF soldiers crosses a red line." TURKEY •Istanbul's chief prosecutor filed a wide-ranging indictment against the city's popular jailed mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and is seeking an absurd 2,352-year total sentence for Pres. Erdogan's strongest rival. •The indictment accused İmamoğlu of leading a vast criminal network that has squeezed Turkey's commercial capital "like the arms of an octopus." •İmamoğlu's real offense was wresting control of Istanbul from Erdogan's party and preparing to challenge Erdogan for the presidency. The timing of İmamoğlu's detention was deliberate: he was arrested days before his party was due to name him as its candidate to run against Erdogan). THAILAND •Thailand suspended its truce with Cambodia after four Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine. Both sides seem inclined to avoid war, but tensions remain high. CHINA •China gave European carmakers some relief by easing restrictions on automotive chip exports to the EU for 12 months. •Analysts point out that the one-year reprieve isn't as much of an EU victory as it might seem. Beijing still bars chip exports for military use, and retained the framework for restoring restrictions on civilian chip exports after the 12-month pause expires.
Open source report